It would be unrealistic to expect that the recently brokered ceasefire agreement in Gaza will restore conditions to their pre-October 7, 2023, state, before Hamas initiated its devastating assault against Israel.
The familiar pattern of previous confrontations – with rebuilding beginning immediately, supported by the Gulf states’ financial backing – will not materialize this time.
A fundamental transformation has emerged in addressing this recurring cycle of crises in Gaza.
While the root causes and triggers are extensively documented, there has never been such a unified regional and international determination to solve these core problems. This observation comes from a clear agreement among stakeholders committed to creating lasting security and stability across the Middle East.
This unified approach demands concrete strategic initiatives, though obstacles block the path forward.
Israeli media outlets and security experts confirm that Hamas retains operational capabilities in Gaza. Despite enduring fierce military and intelligence operations during this conflict, reports show that the organization was still able to conduct guerrilla warfare against Israeli forces until moments before the ceasefire took effect.
The group’s complete military neutralization remains out of reach – a reality proven by history. No military force, regardless of its tactical sophistication and operational excellence, has completely eliminated an entrenched insurgency anywhere in the world. The US military, despite its unmatched resources and capabilities, could not defeat the Taliban, mirroring the Soviet Union’s earlier failed campaign in Afghanistan.
The elimination of ISIS required a coordinated international coalition effort across Syria and Iraq. ISIS became more vulnerable when it attempted to transition from an insurgent movement to a territorial entity, exposing its positions to conventional military strikes.
The Israel Defense Forces’ achievements in Gaza follow the historical pattern of asymmetric warfare. While Israeli military strategists might have anticipated these limitations, the scale of deaths from the October 7 attack and its shattering effects on Israeli society left no choice but to launch a full-scale campaign against Hamas throughout the enclave.
The hardest task
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government now faces its hardest task, not in answering domestic questions about military outcomes but in directing the post-conflict transition and eliminating Hamas during Gaza’s rebuilding – a meticulous process that may last years. The deciding battleground will be ideas: changing Gazan mindsets and building hope for a future free from Hamas’s control.
The success of any future plans hinges on freeing the remaining Israeli hostages taken by Hamas, through the recently negotiated agreement. This life-or-death situation grows more dire due to Hamas’s uncertain knowledge of the hostages’ status, whether due to broken communication lines with various detention cells or the possibility that allied factions hold some captives.
The hostage agreement’s success will determine the fate of both the immediate ceasefire and broader regional dynamics.
The consequences reach beyond Israeli interests to US strategic priorities, especially regarding American hostages held since October 7. President Donald Trump’s warning to Hamas about retaliation if there hadn’t been an agreement before his return to office shows the high stakes, especially if American hostages – whose homecoming photos he wishes to showcase during these days of his second presidential term – die in captivity.
Hamas’s continued presence in Gaza poses the chief obstacle for Israeli military planners. Rebuilding Gaza’s governance through an internationally endorsed framework – while avoiding occupation and its interference with Trump’s planned Middle East peace initiatives between Israel and Arab and Islamic countries – demands swift action from all parties seeking Middle Eastern stability.
In policy terms, Israel opposes both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority as administrators of the territory. However, real-world solutions for the transition period require temporary administrative systems until the Palestinian Authority fixes its notorious institutional flaws.
While no simple answers exist for Gaza’s current crisis, the lives of two million Palestinians demand this diplomatic work and humanitarian investment spearheaded by regional actors, including the United Arab Emirates and Egypt.
The writer is a UAE political analyst and former Federal National Council candidate.