Israel and Egypt signed a historic peace agreement in 1979, but decades later, relations between the two nations remain tense and filled with mutual suspicion.
While the treaty established diplomatic ties and limited security cooperation, Egypt’s rapid military expansion raises concerns about its long-term intentions.
Despite facing no significant external threats, Egypt continues to bolster its military with advanced weapons, tanks, and fighter jets. The country has acquired warships, attack helicopters, and modern fighter jets from France; the Russian S-300 air defense system; and American-made Abrams tanks. Such military advancements appear geared toward engagement with a conventional army rather than countering terrorist groups like ISIS in the Sinai Peninsula.
Given that Israel remains the dominant military power in the region, officials question whether Egypt still perceives it as a long-term adversary.
Education and public sentiment
While Egypt officially recognized Israel in the peace agreement it never acknowledged it as a Jewish state.
Egyptian school textbooks continue to portray Israel as a “Zionist entity” built on Palestinian land, often using negative language to describe Jews. Studies found that students are taught the Israeli-Palestinian that the establishment of the State of Israel as a resolved historical event.
Despite the Egyptian government’s formal commitment to international agreements, anti-Israel sentiment remains strong in the country’s education system, media, and public discourse. Egyptian news outlets frequently publish anti-Israel conspiracy theories, and television programming often includes inflammatory content.
During a past visit to Egypt with then-national infrastructure minister Benjamin “Fuad” Ben-Eliezer, security briefings advised us to keep a low profile, much like the guidance given to Israelis traveling to hostile countries today. Locals who were aware of our identities remained courteous but distant.
Egypt has used terror attacks in Sinai to justify increased military deployments, leveraging the situation to gain concessions from Israel.
Over the years, Israel has allowed Egyptian forces and military equipment into Sinai beyond what was initially agreed upon in the peace accords. The peninsula now hosts a significant Egyptian military presence. These forces may remain even after the threat of terrorism subsides.
Despite the peace treaty, Israel and Egypt’s relationship remains based more on mutual interests than on true diplomatic warmth.
Public opinion and Islamist influence
Egyptian public opinion remains staunchly anti-Israel, influenced by historical grievances, ideological propaganda, and state-controlled education.
Egyptian schools continue to teach that Israel is an occupying force and refuse to recognize it as a Jewish state.
Media outlets reinforce this narrative, frequently portraying the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as Israel’s sole responsibility and often airing antisemitic content, particularly during the holy month of Ramadan.
Islamist ideology also plays a role in shaping Egyptian sentiment. Groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood have long advocated for Israel’s destruction, aligning their beliefs with a broader jihadist agenda. Over the years, Egyptian society has absorbed these messages. The lasting impact of Israel’s wars with Egypt in 1948, 1956, 1967, and 1973 further entrenches hostility, with decades of anti-Israel rhetoric shaping national identity.
Despite President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s efforts to maintain stability among economic and employment challenges have fueled opposition movements.Many Egyptians view Sisi’s government as oppressive, though they often forget the instability that characterized the short-lived rule of Mohamed Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood. Under Morsi, the economy weakened, political freedoms were curtailed, and opposition voices were silenced.
Radical Islamist factions remain a lingering threat, waiting for an opportunity to regain power in the event of an economic collapse or political crisis.
Countries such as Iran, Turkey, and Qatar, known for their support of Islamist movements, could play a role in destabilizing Egypt if conditions allowed.
Military expansion
Egypt’s rapid military expansion has heightened concerns within Israel. The Egyptian army now possesses modern Abrams M1A2 tanks, French Rafale twin-engine fighter jets, F-16s from the United States, and advanced weaponry from Germany and Russia.
Egyptian military activity in the Sinai Peninsula has also drawn scrutiny. While Egypt claims its increased presence is aimed at combating terrorism, intelligence reports suggest the buildup may be preparation for a broader regional shift, including possible population movements from Gaza into Egyptian territory.
Recent reports in the Egyptian daily Al-Akhbar stated that Cairo had warned Israel against maintaining control of the Philadelphi Corridor, claiming it would violate the Camp David Accords and could lead Egypt to reconsider its military cooperation with Israel.
Meanwhile, The Washington Post cited Egyptian intelligence sources indicating that the true reason for Egypt’s growing military presence in Sinai is not counterterrorism but potential changes in Gaza.
While there is no immediate sign of an Egyptian military threat, the October 7 attacks serve as a reminder that security assumptions can be devastatingly wrong.
Strategic preparedness
Israeli intelligence services must closely monitor Egypt’s military movements for any potential escalation. The IDF must conduct training exercises simulating a possible conflict with Egypt and strengthen regional alliances with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Greece, and Cyprus.
Although Israel currently enjoys a technological and air superiority advantage with its fleet of F-35 fighter jets, it must continue investing in cutting-edge military.
Since 1978, Egypt has received approximately $80 billion in US military aid, making it one of the best-equipped armies in the region, outside of Israel.
Since the outbreak of the war in Gaza, Israeli security forces have uncovered dozens of smuggling tunnels along the border with Egypt. Senior defense officials have accused Egypt of allowing Hamas to smuggle weapons into Gaza – despite Cairo’s claims of maintaining strict border control.
Relocation of Gazans
Following statements by US President Donald Trump regarding the possible relocation of Gazans to other countries, Egypt released a military propaganda video showcasing its army’s strength. The footage prominently featured Sisi against a backdrop of fighter jets, tanks, warships, and heavily armed soldiers, all set to dramatic music. The video also included scenes of Palestinian demonstrators throwing Molotov cocktails.
Tensions have further escalated following revelations by The Sunday Times about Ibrahim Al-Arjani, a powerful businessman in North Sinai with close ties to the Egyptian government. Al-Arjani’s company, Ya Hala, has reportedly profited by facilitating the movement of tens of thousands of Gazans out of the region, earning millions in the process. The Palestinian ambassador to Egypt confirmed that since the start of the war, approximately 85,000 people have left Gaza through similar arrangements, often paying exorbitant fees.
Risks and considerations
Recent comments from Sisi indicate growing frustration with international demands. He recently warned that if the United States were to withdraw financial support due to Egypt’s refusal to accept Palestinian refugees, Cairo could reconsider its peace agreement with Israel.
Given these developments, Israel must maintain open communication with US policymakers to express concerns over Egypt’s military buildup. While diplomatic reassurances may provide temporary stability, the changing dynamics of the Middle East require continuous monitoring and preparedness.
Despite its peace treaty with Egypt, Israel cannot afford to be complacent. A strong defense strategy, combined with regional partnerships and technological superiority, remains essential for ensuring national security in an ever-evolving geopolitical landscape.
The writer is the CEO of Radios 100FM, honorary consul general of Nauru, deputy dean of the Diplomatic Consular Corps, president of the Israeli Communication Association, and a former journalist at IDF Radio and past NBC television correspondent.