For far too long, Israel has clung to the illusion that the 1979 Camp David Accords permanently secured our southern flank. We told ourselves that as long as a treaty existed, a strong Egyptian military presence in Sinai was either benign or irrelevant. Yet the facts on the ground are irrefutable: Cairo has transformed Sinai into a forward operating theater bristling with tanks, aircraft, and new infrastructure far beyond any reasonable counterinsurgency needs.
We have seen this pattern before. After Israel’s pullout from Lebanon in 2000, Hezbollah amassed rockets unimpeded, triggering a costly war in 2006. We tolerated Hamas’s buildup in Gaza, culminating in the horrific October 7, 2023 massacres. Likewise, we looked the other way as Egypt steadily tore down treaty restrictions in Sinai. Each time we relied on half-measures and “containment,” only to suffer the consequences of wishful thinking.
Satellite imagery and on-the-ground intelligence confirm Egyptian bases, airfields, and heavy armor are stationed far beyond treaty limits. Cairo’s official line – “We’re fighting terrorists” – no longer explains multi-division deployments, strategic roads, bridging equipment, and fortified bunkers.
The dangers of Egypt's Sinai buildup
A demilitarized buffer has become a launchpad. If Israel remains passive, Egyptian armor could push across the Negev in hours, threatening Beersheba or even Tel Aviv.
Some claim Egypt is merely hedging. That’s a naive underestimation: this buildup started nearly a decade ago, methodically advancing under the guise of “temporary deployments.” Rather than reduce troop levels once the Sinai insurgency subsided, Egypt doubled down. Today, it openly courts new patrons – China and Russia – to sidestep American aid restrictions and acquire advanced hardware.
IN THE Middle East, a treaty holds only as long as its signatories fear the alternative. Egypt’s leadership still touts 1973 as a victory, precisely because it shocked the world into bankrolling Cairo for decades. Now that US support is in question, Egypt is testing Israel’s resolve once again. And every time we avoid confrontation, it only emboldens them to push further.
History proves we cannot rely on statements or good-faith “understandings.” Whether it was destroying Iraq’s nuclear reactor in 1981 or Syria’s in 2007, decisive action maintained our security.
In contrast, ignoring Hamas’s rocket program led to a catastrophe. We risk repeating that mistake on a far more dangerous scale if we continue looking the other way in Sinai.
This is not about seeking war. Israel must remain open to cooperation with Egypt on genuine counter-terror operations. But cooperation cannot mean capitulation to an overt treaty breach. If Cairo refuses to scale back its forces or dismantle newly built offensive infrastructure then we must compel compliance – diplomatically if possible, militarily if not. The Camp David Accords were never meant to be a facade behind which an enemy force could build up unchallenged.
The lesson is simple: illusions in this region get people killed. Dismissing Egyptian violations in Sinai is every bit as reckless as ignoring Hezbollah’s rockets or Hamas’s tunnels.
Our greatest defense, and the ultimate safeguard of genuine peace, is deterrence. If Egypt values stability, it should welcome transparency, verifiable limits, and the preservation of hard-won peace. If it insists on eroding treaty constraints, Israel must respond swiftly and definitively.
Egypt’s government may talk about “sovereignty” and “self-defense,” but a multi-division deployment on our border has only one real target in mind. The longer we pretend otherwise, the worse the inevitable reckoning. It’s time to end the delusion that a signed agreement alone can protect us.
Israel’s safety depends on our willingness to enforce clear red lines. The choice is stark: either reassert the treaty’s limits and deter further encroachment, or wait for a sudden crisis that no piece of paper can prevent. We have the means, and the obligation, to uphold security for our citizens and future generations. The question is whether we still have the will.
The writer is an Israeli businessman, thought leader, activist, and host of the Hebrew podcast, The Leadership of Tomorrow.