The conventional wisdom in some Israeli and American political circles regards Donald Trump’s presidency – past and present – as an unalloyed positive for Israel.
But spend time talking to American Jews and Israelis, and a more nuanced picture emerges – one that challenges simplistic narratives about his relationship with the Jewish state.
While Trump’s administration took several high-profile actions favoring Israel, including relocating the American Embassy to Jerusalem and his grand gestures in Gaza, which he has flip-flopped, many view his impact through a more critical lens.
They see Trump as a destabilizing force in global politics whose unpredictability has created as many challenges as opportunities for Israel’s security interests.
Trump's successes
Take Iran, for instance. Trump’s maximum pressure campaign and withdrawal from the nuclear deal earned cheers from many quarters in Israel.
But many Israeli security experts privately acknowledge that these moves, while bold, failed to meaningfully alter Tehran’s regional behavior or nuclear ambitions.
Instead, they arguably accelerated Iran’s uranium enrichment program while straining relationships with European allies whose cooperation is vital for containing Iranian influence.
The embassy move to Jerusalem, though celebrated by some as a historic recognition of Israel’s capital, yielded few tangible diplomatic benefits. Rather than catalyzing progress in Palestinian negotiations as promised, it removed American leverage as an honest broker without securing meaningful concessions from either side.
This exemplifies a pattern in Trump’s approach: dramatic moves that generate headlines but little lasting positive impact on the ground.
More troubling to many Israelis is Trump’s cavalier deployment of antisemitic tropes and stereotypes, even as he proclaims himself Israel’s greatest ally.
His recent attack on Senator Chuck Schumer, labeling him “a Palestinian” as a slur, reveals a dangerous willingness to weaponize Jewish identity for political gain. We don’t necessarily support Schumer’s positions, but calling him names is a bullying move that only encourages antisemites.
His unbounded attacks on political foes suggest a lack of stability, and while accusations of personal antisemitism may go too far, Trump’s rhetoric is hypocritical and thus provides cover for actual antisemites to express their bigotry more openly.
Trump's approach too erratic
This dynamic highlights a broader concern: the conflation of unwavering support for Israeli government policies with genuine support for Jewish people and their security.
Many Israelis recognize that their nation’s interests are best served by nuanced, substantive policies rather than performative gestures that inflame tensions and complicate the pursuit of regional stability.
The reality is that Israel’s security challenges require careful diplomacy, consistent policy, and the maintenance of strong international alliances.
While Trump’s first administration delivered some policy wins for Israel, in particular, the Abraham Accords navigated by Jared Kushner, Trump’s erratic approach to international relations and casual trafficking in white nationalistic tropes left many Israelis questioning whether such victories were worth the broader costs to global stability and the fight against antisemitism.
There are inherent risks for Israel. If Trump perceives that Israel is not aligning with his broader political agenda, he could reduce support, as he has done with other allies.
While he was tough on Iran during his first term, he has also suggested he could negotiate with them. A sudden change in stance could impact Israel’s security. Trump may try to force Israel into a deal with the Palestinians that Netanyahu or other leaders might find unacceptable.
If Trump’s actions cause a rift between Israel and the US Democrats, Israel could lose long-term bipartisan support. However, if he remains committed to his pro-Israel stance, the Jewish state could see continued US military and diplomatic backing, and his pressure tactics on Iran and the Palestinians could align with Israel’s interests.
As Israel navigates an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape, many of its citizens prefer leaders who can advance their interests through steady diplomacy rather than provocative tweets.
They understand that their nation’s security depends not on grand gestures but on the patient work of building coalitions, strengthening democratic institutions, and pursuing peace through principled engagement with both allies and adversaries.
The bottom line is that Israel may benefit in the short term if Trump stays on its side, but his unpredictability means the country cannot fully rely on him. It will need to hedge its bets by maintaining bipartisan support in the US and strengthening independent security capabilities.
The writer is a psychologist and strategic consultant who specializes in trauma and abuse. He is the director of ADC Psychological Services in Netanya and Hewlett, NY, and is on staff at Northwell, New Hyde Park, NY.