Donald Trump returns to the table this Saturday. According to the White House, the President will engage with Iranian representatives to discuss regional de-escalation and nuclear restraint. But before he does, he should remember who else is at the table. Not just the Islamic Republic. But also China, Russia, Qatar, the Europeans, and even some Gulf states—all quietly urging the US to make a deal.
Leading the American delegation will be Steve Witkoff, Trump’s longtime associate and newly appointed Special Envoy for the Middle East and Stability Talks. A real estate mogul with no prior diplomatic experience, Witkoff enters the room with a mandate to test Iran’s intentions—but also amid pressure from international actors hoping for a quick détente. That pressure should be resisted.
The pressure is building from every direction. Russia and China want sanctions relief for their Iranian partner. Qatar and Oman want to mediate for prestige. The Europeans want any deal that looks better than collapse. Even the isolationist wing of the GOP will call it a win if Trump delivers a breakthrough. They’ll all tell him that he can control the outcome.
But Israel knows better. So do Republican hawks and real opponents of the Islamic Republic. They’ve seen this game before. They know the regime doesn’t compromise—it stalls. It negotiates to neutralize pressure, not to resolve conflict. And every time the West gives in, the regime comes back stronger, bloodier, and more entrenched.
The Islamic Republic doesn’t fear collapse. It fears clarity. And clarity is exactly what Trump must bring to Saturday’s talks.
Three things to keep in mind
Here are three things he must keep in mind:
1. Tehran creates crises to force negotiation, not the other way around.
The Islamic Republic has spent months stoking conflict to shape the conditions for talks. Attacks on shipping. Proxy strikes across Iraq and Syria. Escalation in Lebanon and Yemen. These aren’t rogue moves. They are invitations. The regime wants the US to come to the table out of exhaustion, not strength. That gives Tehran the upper hand from the start.
2. The coalition calling for a deal does not have American interests in mind.
China and Russia want strategic breathing room for their ally. The Europeans want to claim progress before their own elections. And some in the Persian Gulf would rather appease Tehran than risk direct confrontation. But Iran’s nuclear program, terror finance, and weapons exports are threats to US personnel, partners, and credibility.
3. The regime is not negotiating to change course. It is negotiating to survive.
Iran’s economy is deteriorating. Mahsa Amini’s death shattered its social contract. The regime is fractured and frightened. It is entering these talks to delay collapse. The minute pressure eases, it will pivot back to defiance. That’s not speculation. It’s doctrine. Former IRGC commanders and regime strategists have written openly about using diplomacy as strategic pause. As Khamenei himself once said, “We use negotiations to neutralize threats—not to solve them.”
President Trump should not offer that pause.
Instead, he should flip the script. Use the talks to increase pressure, not relieve it. Demand full IAEA access. Demand the end of proxy support, missile proliferation, and drone exports. Demand timelines, transparency, and enforceable consequences. And if Iran refuses? Walk away. Loudly.
The only way to change Tehran’s behavior is to change its calculus. That means forcing the regime to choose between survival and escalation. Between collapse and compliance. Between being in power and being in check.
The regime is betting that Trump wants a headline. What it fears is that he still wants a win.
And if he does—he shouldn’t take the bait. He should make them sweat.
The writer is an Iranian-American research professor and energy expert, political and human rights activist, organizer of joint events between Iranian and Jewish communities in Massachusetts, and leader of the From Boston to Iran group, alongside fellow activists. His analyses on security and policy issues have appeared in outlets including The Jerusalem Post, The Washington Times, Homeland Security Today and the Middle East Forum. X: @Aidin_FreeIran