This op-ed was published as part of a roundtable discussion series at The annual conference of Tel Aviv University in collaboration with the Kadar Foundation: "Tel Aviv Conference – The Future of Israel", under the topic: “How did Trump win again – and what does it mean for Israel and the world?”
The 2024 presidential election delivered one of the most surprising political realignments in American history. President Donald Trump won the largest share of Latino votes ever recorded by a Republican and achieved the highest level of Black support for a GOP candidate since Gerald Ford in 1976. For decades, political analysts assumed that racial and ethnic minorities overwhelmingly aligned with the Democratic Party. That assumption now demands serious reconsideration.
The emerging reality is clear: minority voters are far more politically diverse than commonly believed, and many are increasingly backing Republican candidates—even ones like Trump, who has often been hostile to minority groups. This phenomenon challenges decades of scholarship and popular commentary that portray minority voters as a monolithic Democratic bloc.
Traditionally, the consensus has been that racial identity predicts political behavior, particularly for African Americans. Given the long history of systemic racism and economic inequality, it was intuitive to believe that Black voters would uniformly support policies and candidates perceived to advance their community’s interests. Consequently, figures like Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas or Senator Tim Scott—Black conservatives—have been treated as outliers, exceptions to a rule.
Yet the evidence suggests otherwise. Justice Thomas’s 2023 opinion in the Students for Fair Admissions cases, which repealed affirmative action in college admissions, reflects a deeper ideological shift. In his opinion, Thomas argued against viewing individuals through the narrow lens of race, advocating instead for personal agency over racial determinism. His words, coming from the Court’s most senior African American member, signal a broader willingness among minorities to rethink traditional narratives about race and politics.
Latino voters reveal a similar pattern. Many commentators assumed Trump's early anti-immigration rhetoric—especially his inflammatory remarks about Mexico—would permanently alienate Latino voters. Yet, not only did Trump maintain but expanded his support among Latinos in 2020 and again in 2024.
Activists like Maria Espinoza, founder of The Remembrance Project, show that many Latinos do not necessarily prioritize permissive immigration policies. Some, like Espinoza, became leading voices against illegal immigration, defying the stereotype of Latino political solidarity on immigration issues.
Asian Americans, too, complicate the conventional wisdom. Despite an increase in anti-Asian sentiment during the COVID-19 pandemic, some Asian American voters moved toward Trump. Organizations like Chinese Americans for Trump, founded by David Tian Wang, demonstrate that ethnic solidarity is not an absolute predictor of political behavior. Prominent figures such as Chinese billionaire Guo Wengui even publicly supported Trump during the pandemic, further illustrating the ideological diversity within the Asian American community.
These stories are not isolated incidents. They are indicative of a broader pattern that we analyze in my recently published book with Idan Franco, The Emerging Republican Minorities. Black, Latino, and Asian American voters are showing growing political variance, departing from the monolithic patterns assumed by many political scientists, strategists, and journalists. These shifts are not just academically interesting—they are electorally consequential.
The roots of these changes are complex. They involve personal values, religious beliefs, views on economic opportunity, law and order concerns, and skepticism of affirmative action and identity politics. Many minority voters are increasingly concerned about issues that transcend racial identity and align more closely with the White majority and in some cases also with conservative principles.
As America becomes more diverse, understanding this evolution is critical. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, minorities are on track to become the majority within a few decades. If minority voters continue trending Republican in significant numbers, the political landscape could be transformed for generations. This trend is bound to translate into electoral outcomes even faster given the concentration of minority groups in some of the swing states.
The lesson here is simple but profound: racial identity is not destiny. Minority voters are not a monolith. Their political preferences are as nuanced and varied as those of any other group. Ignoring this reality leads to misinterpretations of electoral outcomes and miscalculations by political parties.
To stay relevant, both parties—and political observers—must rethink outdated assumptions. The future of American politics may well be shaped not by an unbreakable Democratic minority coalition, but by the continued rise of the emerging Republican minorities.
Prof. Udi Sommer is the Head of the Barak Leadership Center at Tel Aviv University.