After over four decades of tyranny, terror sponsorship, and revolutionary expansionism, the Islamic Republic of Iran may finally be approaching its end.
Just a year ago, Iran seemed stronger than ever, but now the winds have changed dramatically and the regime is collapsing under the weight of both its internal contradictions as well as a confluence of outside forces.
The pieces are aligning for what can only be called a “great storm” – a convergence of economic despair, massive military defeats, internal disillusionment, and a maximum pressure campaign by the US. What had been talked about in the past as only aspirational now seems more likely than ever.
Since the revolution took hold in 1979, the Iranian regime has maintained its power not by uplifting its people but by exporting violence abroad and enforcing repression at home.
Billions for terror
Over the past decade alone, Iran has poured an estimated $60-80 billion into supporting terrorist groups and proxy militias such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Shi’ite militias in Iraq, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza, and propping up the regime in Syria.
Much of this funding came at the direct expense of the Iranian people, who have suffered through repeated economic crises while watching their nation’s wealth funneled into foreign wars.
This “ring of fire” strategy was designed to encircle Israel and threaten US interests across the Middle East, allowing Iran to claim the mantle of leadership in the Islamic world. The one argument Iran could make to both its supporters and detractors was that it was spending and sacrificing for a greater “good,” to hasten Islam’s supremacy over other religions and defeat its “enemies” (the US and Israel).
But in recent months, that strategy has shattered and proven to be an utter failure. The average supporter of the regime is confronted with a series of questions: Was the sacrifice worth it? And how to support a regime that has failed so dramatically? Without the support of their constituencies, the Iranian regime will not be able to withstand all of the abovementioned pressures.
There are four factors at play. The discontent among an estimated 80% of the population within Iran, the demoralization of its core constituency that make up the other 20%, Israel’s impact on Iran militarily, and the US’s strategy of maximum pressure.
Rotting internally
Internally, Iran is rotting. Inflation is over 40%, and the national currency – the rial – has lost over 90% of its value in the past decade. The World Bank estimates that more than 50% of Iranians now live below the poverty line, with unemployment rates among youth reaching over 27%. Basic goods like water and electricity are limited, and meat, medicine, and fuel are either unaffordable or unavailable.
These dire conditions have sparked repeated waves of nationwide protests, with the 2022 “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement marking a turning point. Young Iranians – particularly women – have shed their fear of the regime’s brutality.
Israel’s successful dismantling of Iranian proxy capabilities in Syria, Gaza, and Lebanon, in conjunction with Iran’s inability to prevent severe retaliation after its April 2024 missile attack, has exposed the regime’s strategic weakness. Billions of dollars have been flushed down the toilet, and it has been exposed as the true paper tiger.
Maximum pressure
The return of the Trump administration and the reimposition of the “maximum pressure campaign” is choking Iran economically and politically. The proof of the campaign’s success is that Iran is currently negotiating with its sworn enemy, the US, under the pretext of Iran dismantling their nuclear capabilities. As a point of reference, in President Donald Trump’s first term, Iran’s oil exports plummeted from over 2.5 million barrels per day to under 300,000, and the regime lost an estimated $200 billion in revenue.
The conditions today are ripe for an overthrow of the current government. The situation is categorically different than at any point in the last 40 years. The Iranian regime is now a fractured ruling elite, drained of credibility, facing off against a nation that is both fed up and demoralized.
The discontent is no longer isolated to liberals, students, or ethnic minorities. Even traditional regime supporters, especially within the lower-income and rural base, are turning. Their loyalty was tied to the promise of religious purpose and national dignity. With that illusion broken, their tolerance for suffering has evaporated.
The next two years could be decisive. The end of the Iranian regime is no longer just a dream; it’s becoming an imminent reality.
The writer has been a recognized opinion leader since his early college days, when he co-founded Torchpac, a pro-Israel advocacy group at New York University. He is currently a co-chairman and co-founder of Emissary, an organization dedicated to combating antisemitism on social media. drosen@Emmisary4all.org