In an age defined by VUCA—volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity—few regions illustrate this reality more vividly than the Middle East. The pace and intensity of change across the region leave little time for reflection before new crises emerge.
Few communities embody the geopolitical fragility of the region more acutely than my community, the Druze. Scattered across four deeply interconnected yet frequently conflicting states, Israel, Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan, the Druze find themselves at the epicenter of regional tensions.
Each of these countries is entangled in its own internal struggles and external rivalries, and the Druze, by virtue of geography and demography, are often caught in the crossfire. Uniquely, the Druze faith promotes loyalty to the state in which each community resides, with no pan-Druze nationalist movement or territorial ambitions.
This core principle has historically allowed the Druze to integrate locally while avoiding regional entanglement. Yet in today’s Middle East, where borders are porous and alliances transient, this strategy is being tested like never before.
Zooming in from the regional landscape to the unfolding reality in Syria, we are witnessing a new chapter. Following the dramatic fall of Bashar al-Assad and the sudden rise of Ahmed al-Sharaa as Syria’s new president, the country has plunged deeper into chaos.
What began as instability has now metastasized into a campaign of terror against minorities. Jihadist factions, some directly linked to the new regime and others operating independently, have launched violent attacks on various minority groups, including Kurds, Alawites, Christians, and now the Druze.
Last week, in just two days of sectarian clashes in Jaramana and Sahnaya, in the Damascus area and southern Syria, approximately 90 Druze people were killed.
Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri, the spiritual leader of the Druze community, has condemned what he describes as a "genocidal campaign" against his people. With no reliable state protection and minimal international attention, some Druze in Syria are beginning to take up arms as the violence reaches their doorsteps.
The community is urgently calling for international assistance as the threat intensifies. These attacks have been accompanied by widespread human rights violations, including torture, public executions, and acts of humiliation. Much of the violence is tied to groups like Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a jihadist coalition estimated at around 30,000 fighters, some of whom operate beyond the regime's control.
The rise of HTS has confirmed international fears that Syria’s power vacuum would be filled not by centralized governance, but by fragmented, unaccountable armed groups. Whether by complicity or by inability to rein them in, the regime’s failure to halt these atrocities is undeniable.
Although it was confirmed yesterday that indirect talks are underway between Jerusalem and Damascus, mediated by the UAE, and despite the regime’s recent success in reaching agreements with the Druze, allowing them to form local security units to protect their towns and pledge loyalty to the newly established regime, tensions remain high.
It is still too early to determine whether this fragile agreement will hold. One thing, however, is certain: the Syrian Druze find themselves in a dire and complex dilemma. As a minority, they lack power, protection, and weapons, yet many intellectually mature Druze are deeply cautious and fully aware of the domestic and regional risk of being seen as an Israeli proxy while seeking aid under the current ambiguity.
Moral tragedy and strategic alarm bell
This unfolding crisis of the Druze in Syria is not only a moral tragedy. It is a strategic alarm bell that policymakers in Washington and Jerusalem cannot afford to ignore. The rise of extremist forces in Syria under the new regime of Ahmed al-Sharaa poses a direct threat to regional stability and border security.
For the United States, continued disengagement risks allowing Syria to become a safe haven for jihadist groups hostile to Western interests. For Israel, the growing instability in southern Syria poses a significant threat to its northern border.
The prospect of radical Islamist groups entrenching themselves near the Golan Heights represents a dangerous security risk, one that echoes the painful lessons of past inaction. Although Israel has deep experience confronting terrorism and extremism, 2023 brought crucial lesson into sharp focus.
After withdrawing from Lebanon in 2000 and Gaza in 2005, Israel witnessed the 23-year rise of Hezbollah and the 18-year rise of Hamas. The October 7th Hamas attacks, followed by Hezbollah’s entry into the conflict the next day, highlighted the strategic error. Israel learned a vital lesson: terrorist groups must be dismantled early, before they succeed in building formidable power, like Hezbollah, which had amassed the world’s 8th-largest missile arsenal, or Hamas, one of the most heavily armed and supported terrorist organizations.
Against this backdrop, Israel has consistently emphasized the strategic importance of keeping Syria’s southern provinces: Quneitra, Daraa, and Sweida, out of Islamist control. It has long advocated for a demilitarized buffer zone along the border and closely monitors developments in the area.
Beyond security considerations, Israel is also repeatedly expressing its commitment to defending vulnerable minorities, particularly the Druze, acknowledging both a moral obligation and the strategic need to contain radicalization before it spreads.
Policymakers must recognize that the fate of the Druze in post-Assad Syria is a litmus test for the international community’s resolve to prevent the further descent of the Middle East into chaos.
Their struggle is not only about survival—it is about preserving a fragile center in a region increasingly pulled to the extremes. In a time when the cost of inaction is measured in lives and lost stability, standing with them is an investment in a more secure and balanced future for the region.
The writer is a former member of the Knesset, Founder and CEO of GKM Global Consulting.