The last five years have been a confusing time in the history of Israel and several other Western democracies. The reasons for this include various degrees of political instability accompanied by growing splits in the society caused by ideological, sociological, and religious reasons.

All this has weakened liberal democracy, has encouraged populism, and has strengthened various forms of right-wing political movements – some less democratic than others. The pandemic (2020-2023) caused extreme health concerns, a breakdown of communications between individuals, as well as serious economic disruptions. Last but not least, these years saw a gradual breakdown of the post-WWII world order, with the return of a beggar thy neighbor attitude and practices.

In different states, these phenomena emerged in different intensities and with different manifestations. Israel has experienced them in a particularly harsh form, which has left the society, the political and legal systems, and many daily events in a state of havoc and confusion.

The current conflagration between Israel and the Islamic Republic of Iran, following a year and a half of warfare on numerous fronts, has been in the making since the fall in 1979 of the shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, with whom Israel had been closely aligned, and the rise of a radical form of Islam, espoused by an expanding group of the Shi’ite clergy known as ayatollahs. Whether or not the clash between Israel and the ayatollahs was avoidable, by the 1990s Israel started to view them not only as an enemy, but as a fundamental danger to the continued existence of the State of Israel.

This was connected to the attitude of the ayatollahs to Iran’s nuclear program.

Iranian centrifuges are seen on display during a meeting between Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and nuclear scientists and personnel of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), in Tehran, Iran June 11, 2023. (credit: VIA REUTERS)
Iranian centrifuges are seen on display during a meeting between Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and nuclear scientists and personnel of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), in Tehran, Iran June 11, 2023. (credit: VIA REUTERS)
In the 1960s, under the shah, Iran started developing a civilian nuclear capability, for the purpose of generating electricity, with American, French, and German assistance. The program was stopped by Ayatollah Ruhollah Musavi Khomeini soon after he assumed power in Iran, with the argument that the development of nuclear arms ran counter to the principles of Islam. The program was resumed in 1992 (three years after Khomeini’s death) and assumed a military character.

This coincided with Yitzhak Rabin’s becoming prime minister. Almost immediately, Rabin started to speak of Iran’s nuclearization as an existential danger to Israel. However, unlike the position of today’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, Rabin believed that resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would take away from the ayatollahs and hostile Arab states, the main excuse for their poisonous attitude towards Israel, and the desire to develop nuclear weapons. Netanyahu places no value on an Israeli-Palestinian settlement.

Preventing Iran from turning militarily nuclear was one of Netanyahu’s main ambitions since he became leader of the opposition. In 1993, he warned that by 1999, Iran would turn nuclear, and constitute the main threat to Israel’s existence. Twenty-six years later, Iran still does not have any nuclear weapons, but is much closer than it was back in 1993, and, at long last, Netanyahu decided to act.

From a military point of view, Israel’s attack on Iran, with the goal of causing maximal damage to Iran’s nuclear installations, and disabling, as much as possible, Iran’s retaliatory capabilities against Israel, has been without doubt an impressive, brilliantly executed operation. From the little we know, the operation is being carried out by Israel by and large on its own, though with prior American knowledge and tacit approval, and assurances that it will participate in Israel’s defense against Iran’s retaliatory acts, though apparently without an American commitment to join the attacks on Iran.

Implications of the Iran attack

This is not the first time since October 2023, that after suffering a humiliating attack by less than 6,000 Hamas terrorists, with catastrophic results, some of which are still lingering on one year and eight months later (i.e. 53 dead and alive hostages who are still being held captive in the Gaza Strip) Israel has demonstrated military brilliance. The $64,000 question is whether this time Israel will manage to turn its brilliant military performance into long-term political achievements.

To a large extent this will depend on what US President Donald Trump will decide to do, and the outcome might still be what Netanyahu has been most opposed to in the last decade: a negotiated agreement with Iran, which will cut short Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

In the meantime, we have no idea what awaits us in the next few weeks or months. At the time of writing – two days into the fighting – Israel has lost none of its planes or pilots, who are operating freely over Iran, more than 1,500 km. away from home.

However, for the first time since the multi-front operation first began in the Gaza Strip back in October 2023, residential areas in cities in central Israel have suffered several direct hits by Iranian rockets, with a number of fatalities, and Israel is bracing itself towards what might befall it in the next days and nights.

In addition, the running of Israel’s school system is expected to be disrupted – at least for primary and middle school children, who have not yet begun their summer holidays. Disruptions may also be expected in the economy – but at this stage we do not really know.

It should be noted, however, that none of this is as horrific as were the first few weeks of the Hamas invasion of the Gaza envelope and of the IDF’s initial paralysis, and later the rockets and drones that Hezbollah started launching towards Israel’s northern areas. Nor is it as horrific as the results of our systematic destruction and carnage in most sections of the Gaza Strip, and selected locations and areas in Lebanon.

What is most confusing is that we do not really know what to expect in the foreseeable future, and have no reason to believe what our government – and particularly our prime minister – tell us. The attack in Iran was preceded by several weeks of misrepresentations of the reality, diversions, and open lies. Eventually, we shall find out the truth, and hopefully the results will be positive.

To maintain a sense of optimism, let us hope that besides positive changes within Iran, or at least in its basic conduct, to which the current fighting might lead, Netanyahu will choose to change his strategy and tactics with regards to the release of the remaining 53 hostages from the Gaza Strip. Especially if the fighting against Iran will go well, perhaps he will agree to some temporary settlement with Hamas, even if the price will remain exorbitant in his eyes.

It is time the 53 will come home.

The writer has written journalistic and academic articles, as well as several books, on international relations, Zionism, Israeli politics, and parliamentarism. In the years 1994-2010, she worked in the Knesset library and the Knesset Research and Information Center.