Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is engaging in blame-game tactics, putting Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) director Ronen Bar and Attorney-General Gali Baharav-Miara in his crosshairs to fire them, and feels a backwind of support from the Trump administration to do so, Eliav Breuer and Amichai Stein explained on The Jerusalem Post Podcast with Tamar Uriel-Beeri.
The findings of the Shin Bet probe into the security sector's failure to stop the October 7 massacre has made waves in Israel's political and diplomatic spheres. In particular, the Shin Bet's damning probe revealed far more about the overall failures of the country's political and security leadership.
Stein, The Jerusalem Post diplomatic correspondent, explained that the Shin Bet probe revealed details previously hidden by the military censor, as well as harsh criticism of the prime minister and diplomatic sector's way of thinking regarding security matters.
The agency’s report included accusations that Netanyahu’s policies regarding the Temple Mount, Palestinian prisoners’ treatment, sending Qatari funds to Hamas in Gaza, and the judicial reform were significant motivators for Hamas to invade on the morning of October 7.
"This was the thing that caused all hell to break loose," Stein said.
But this also is another blow in the ongoing tensions between Netanyahu and Bar.
"We know that Netanyahu wants to get rid of Ronen Bar. That's everyone's assumption," Stein said, but added that the situation is delicate due to the ongoing investigation into allegations of Qatari money flowing into the Prime Minister's Office.
Getting rid of Bar, therefore, might imply that Netanyahu wants to get rid of the one investigating him because he's afraid of what will be found, Stein noted.
"But the story right now is that Netanyahu doesn't trust the head of the Shin Bet," he continued. "This is the headline. Prime Minister Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, doesn't trust the person who is heading one of the most secretive intelligence bodies in Israel."
But Bar isn't the only one in Netanyahu's crosshairs.
"There are two figures very close to Netanyahu... who he can't wait to get rid of," explained Breuer, the Post's political correspondant. "Ronen Bar and the attorney-general, Gali Baharav-Miara. Both of them have been basically essential gatekeepers in different ways since the formation of this government, and especially since October 7."
Breuer went on to reference the recent response from Netanyahu's inner circle to the Shin Bet probe, accusing Bar and the Shin Bet of their own intelligence failures and of not informing Netanyahu of Hamas's impending attack.
“Bar unequivocally asserted that Hamas sought to avoid a confrontation with Israel. He even saw potential for long-term stability in Gaza if Israel provided it with a positive economic outlook,” the statement said, further going on to accuse the Shin Bet of not notifying Netanyahu of intelligence that Hamas planned to attack.
“This was neither included in ongoing intelligence assessments nor considered on the night of October 7, despite the fact that the Shin Bet had known about the plan since 2018,” the statement from the prime minister’s circle added.
“In addition to all this, the Shin Bet director did not see fit to wake the prime minister on the night of the attack – the most fundamental and essential decision imaginable,” it said.
According to Breuer, this response "was an example of heightened tension and rhetoric," which Netanyahu has been using more frequently.
"Another example of this was in the Knesset earlier this week, when Netanyahu, in this fire and brimstone speech, started attacking the Deep State and the media," be said, noting that the phrase "Deep State" is not something he normally uses. However, it is used frequently by right-wing politicians in the US.
"He actually said, 'If the US president can attack the Deep State, can counter the Deep State, then I can too," Breuer continued, noting that this in his opinion shows that Netanyahu feels a backwind from Donald Trump in office in the US, and therefore feels he has the means to better act against the Shin Bet and attorney-general.
Stein affirmed this, noting a change in Netanyahu's attitude after his trip to Washington. Seeing Trump's rapid-fire use of executive orders to make whatever changes he wants, Stein said, may have caused the prime minister to become frustrated, as he is more constrained by the judiciary.
"He can't do whatever he wants," Stein noted.
Netanyahu plays the blame game
Stein further explained that Netanyahu always likes to have someone to blame for when things go wrong, and this tendency has impacted certain shifts in the political and military sectors.
First, Stein said, Netanyahu blamed Gadi Eisenkot and Benny Gantz, who then quit the government. Then he moved on to defense minister Yoav Gallant, who was fired and fully left the Knesset. Then all the focus was on IDF chief of staff Herzi Halevi.
"Herzi Halevi resigned," Stein continued. "Now all the focus is on two people: on Ronen Bar and the attorney general.
"What he's saying is, 'All these people are responsible for your problems.'"
Regarding the actual responsibility for the events of October 7, Stein noted that Netanyahu is at the very least responsible for what happened on October 7 due to having been behind many of Israel's longstanding policies and strategies for handling Hamas.
"It's correct that on October 7, he [Netanyahu] wasn't woken up," Stein said. "He isn't responsible for what happened on that day." But he is responsible for Israel's strategy of not going after Hamas heads, not going forward with assassinations, not launching operations against Hamas on Israel's initative rather than in response to Hamas rockets.
"Let's say Ronen Bar is fired, and the attorney-general will be fired or quit," Stein said. "The question is, who will Netanyahu blame afterwards?"
Breuer noted that Netanyahu has a different strategy he is also following: doing whatever it takes to survive to forge his legacy, specifically one not defined by October 7.
"The strategy for Netanyahu now is to try to survive for as long as possible until he can make the next big splash, for example, peace with Saudi Arabia," he explained. "That will kind of cement is legacy looking forward so that October 7 won't be his lasting legacy. But in irder to survive, he needs to be able to overcome certain things that can bring him down, such as certain criminal investiations, his ongoing trial, public opinion, and perhaps most importantly, the public commission of inquiry."
Avoiding a commission of inquiry into October 7 is something Netanyahu has been very forceful about in speeches.
"What we're seeing in his response to Ronen Bar and all of his statements and actions in the past few weeks speaks to his attempt, despite growing pressure... to avoid a comission of inquiry."
It's rather strange that a comission of inquiry hasn't been formed, Stein noted, explaining how even the Yom Kippur War had a major investigation by committee, and the intelligence and security failures that led to October 7 was far worse.
"Netanyahu doesn't want it," Stein said. "He's so much afraid of [someone] pointing even the slightest finger at him that he doesn't want it."