NASA has raised the risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth to 3.1%, according to newly published data released on Tuesday. This marks an increase from previous estimates and signifies the most significant collision probability recorded for an asteroid by modern tracking systems.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first discovered on December 27, by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile. The initial observation was reported to the Minor Planet Center by the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System station. Since its discovery, the asteroid has undergone several updates regarding its collision risk, which was initially assessed at roughly 1% and has now increased to 3.1%, according to Independent.
Scientists estimate that asteroid 2024 YR4 is approximately 40 to 90 meters in size, comparable to the height of the Leaning Tower of Pisa and the size of a building. This size estimation carries implications for the potential impact.
The potential impact date for asteroid 2024 YR4 has been identified as December 22, 2032, which is in eight years' time.
NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) now ranks the threat level of asteroid 2024 YR4 at 3 out of 10 on the Torino Scale. This indicates a "1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction." The Torino Scale combines the likelihood of an impact with the danger it would cause, and a score of 3 suggests localized but not apocalyptic destruction.
The potential impact risk corridor for asteroid 2024 YR4 extends across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, Africa, and South Asia. Specific regions identified as at risk include India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Venezuela, Colombia, and Ecuador. These areas collectively house over 100 million people who could be affected in the event of an impact.
If asteroid 2024 YR4 were to impact Earth, it could release energy equivalent to approximately 8 megatons of TNT. This is enough to destroy a city and create an airburst over 500 times the power of the Hiroshima bomb. Historical comparisons have been drawn to the Tunguska event of 1908, where an asteroid similar in size exploded above Siberia, causing destruction over 2,150 square kilometers of forest, as mentioned by The New York Times.
Despite the increased risk, experts do not believe there is reason to sound the alarm. "I am not in a panic," said Bruce Betts, according to the South China Morning Post. Similarly, experts from the CNEOS stress there is no immediate cause for alarm regarding asteroid 2024 YR4, stating it is almost certain that it will not impact Earth.
NASA plans to use the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) in March to determine the exact size of asteroid 2024 YR4. Observation time has been cleared to study it in infrared, which will help refine its impact odds and assess its size, estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters.
This information may help scientists understand if the asteroid could pass through Earth's atmosphere intact and the potential explosion size if it were to impact.
Astronomers are closely monitoring the situation, collecting data before asteroid 2024 YR4 becomes too faint. "The fact that the probability has increased in the last week does not mean it will continue to increase," said Hugh Lewis from the University of Southampton in the United Kingdom.
In the event that the collision probability increases further, space agencies might consider deflection strategies. One popular technique is using a kinetic impactor to collide with the asteroid to alter its trajectory, a method demonstrated by NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission, which successfully changed the orbit of asteroid Didymos's moonlet in 2022.
While the threat of asteroid 2024 YR4 is real, experts state that it remains unlikely to impact Earth in 2032, and it is far too early to speculate on relocation or emergency measures. "Although asteroid 2024 YR4 is too small to end all life on Earth, it could destroy a large city, as it is large enough to reduce an entire city to rubble," reported The New York Times.
Scientists hope that as more information is gathered about asteroid 2024 YR4's trajectory, the likelihood of a collision will decrease to 0%. Researchers are analyzing past data in the hope of finding forgotten records that could help improve their calculations.
In the meantime, NASA is constantly updating the asteroid's impact likelihood, as well as that of many other Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) flying through space.
The article was written with the assistance of a news analysis system.