In an interview with Commodity Culture, veteran trader and technical analyst Francis Hunt, known for his 30 years of market expertise and the Hunt Volatility Funnel trading method, delivered a stark warning about an impending "Great Collapse" that he believes will send the price of gold into a parabolic surge. The episode saw Hunt elaborate on his bearish outlook for the US economy, the fragile state of global debt, and his contrarian view on the gold-silver ratio.
Hunt, in conversation with host Jesse Day, painted a grim picture of the US, describing it as a nation that has "passed peak America" due to the excessive accumulation of debt. He argued that the ongoing trade war with China is unwinnable and merely a symptom of deeper structural problems. "Short answer: no, you don't win it. The US does not win that war," Hunt stated emphatically, characterizing the situation as a "controlled demolition" years in the making.
The Broken Foundations: Debt and the Dollar
A central theme of Hunt's analysis was the precarious state of global debt and its implications for the US dollar's standing as the world's reserve currency. He highlighted the declining demand for US Treasury bonds, asserting, "Nobody wants it as a reserve asset." He explained that the dollar's strength is intrinsically linked to the demand for US debt, noting, "The USD comes with a US; it's borrowed into existence. You should think of them as a pair."
In contrast, Hunt positioned gold as a haven without such liabilities, suggesting it is poised to benefit from the unfolding crisis. He pointed to worrying signs in the US economy, including rising mortgage loan refusal rates, and the looming challenge of refinancing trillions of dollars in debt at higher interest rates.
Hunt also touched upon the US's strained relationships with the EU, viewing recent tensions as a strategic repositioning amid America's financial woes. He suggested the US is looking to reduce its financial burden of defending Europe.
He painted a concerning picture of the European banking system and noted the upcoming launch of the digital euro as a potential contingency plan for a broader financial meltdown. While the euro has shown some recent strength against the dollar, Hunt attributed this to debt market dynamics rather than underlying economic robustness.
Gold's Dominance in the Initial Flight to SafetyPerhaps the most striking aspect of Hunt's analysis was his contrarian view on the gold-silver ratio. While many analysts anticipate silver outperforming gold due to its historically stretched ratio, Hunt argued that the sheer scale of the impending crisis will drive major players towards gold first. "The big players with the big money are going to keep stacking gold," he explained, citing its higher value density and the relative ease of manipulating the smaller silver market.
He suggested that retail investors might be prematurely shifting to silver, potentially missing out on more significant gains in gold in the short to medium term. "Stay gold for longer," Hunt advised, predicting a scenario where "silver guys will feel cheated" as gold initially outperforms significantly. He did, however, foresee a dramatic reversal later, potentially leading to a "single-digit gold-to-silver ratio" as the crisis evolves.
Hunt emphasized the urgency of the current situation, describing it as a "quickening" where long-developing economic trends are reaching a critical juncture. "Do not take this lightly, what's going on," he warned, anticipating "contagion coming" that will impact various sectors, including hedge funds and banks.
Despite the dire warnings, Hunt also highlighted potential opportunities for wealth creation during this reset, urging viewers to "build life-changing wealth." He directed listeners to his YouTube channel and the Market Sniper platform for further insights and strategies to navigate the turbulent times ahead.