In a recent interview on Liberty and Finance, veteran market analyst Michael Oliver, founder of Momentum Structural Analysis, delivered a striking forecast: silver is on the cusp of a rally that will "shock investors." Known for his in-depth momentum-based analysis, Oliver laid out his reasoning, contrasting silver's coiled potential with a skeptical view of the current stock market rebound and a more tempered outlook for gold's immediate trajectory.
The central theme of Oliver's discussion was the impending surge he anticipates in the silver market. Referencing the interview's title, his analysis strongly suggested that silver, after a period of consolidation, is primed for significant gains that could eclipse even gold's recent impressive performance. "So I think the real shocker here will be silver, not so much gold," Oliver stated, emphasizing the unique momentum pattern he observes in the metal. He elaborated, "Yes, gold has gone into price acceleration while silver's built this pattern on momentum that says I haven't even begun."
While bullish on the broader precious metals sector, Oliver characterized gold's current pullback from its all-time high as a "briefer corrective process." He downplayed concerns of a deep retracement, noting gold's historical tendency to establish new support levels above previous peaks. "I suspect this will be brief. It won't be multi-month," he predicted, suggesting that the fundamental strength supporting gold remains intact.
Oliver offered a strong counter-narrative to the prevailing optimism surrounding the recent stock market rally. Drawing on his earlier sell signals for major indices, he argued that the underlying technical damage suggests the bounce is unsustainable. "Long-term momentum argues no. That break did major long-term damage, and this rally is to be distrusted," Oliver asserted, urging investors to exercise caution.
A key element of Oliver's analysis was the historically elevated gold-silver ratio. He highlighted that silver currently represents a very low percentage of gold's value, a condition that has historically preceded significant silver outperformance. "If you go back 50 years and look at the silver divided into the price of gold expressed as a percent, 1% is super low," Oliver explained. He is closely monitoring this ratio for a breakout, which he believes would confirm silver's impending surge.
Oliver also touched upon concerning signals in other markets, including the struggling Treasury bond market and vulnerabilities within commercial real estate. These broader economic anxieties, he suggested, further underscore the importance of precious metals as a hedge against systemic risks.
Michael Oliver's appearance on Liberty and Finance, particularly his focus on "Silver's Move Will Shock Investors," provides a compelling and technically grounded perspective on the precious metals markets. His analysis, rooted in decades of studying market momentum, offers a potentially prescient outlook for silver and serves as a crucial reminder of the underlying vulnerabilities within the broader financial landscape. Investors would be wise to heed Oliver's insights as they navigate these uncertain times.