Israel is coming off the worst massacre in its history – men, women, and children slaughtered, and others taken hostage. It found itself forced to fight for its survival on seven different fronts. And it now has in the White House the most pro-Israel president in memory.
Yet, despite all that, support for Israel in America is at its lowest level in a quarter century, at least according to the Gallup World Affairs survey, which has been asking the same question since 2001: “In the Middle East situation, are your sympathies more with the Israelis or with the Palestinians?”
When 1,004 Americans were asked this question in telephone interviews between February 3-16, only 46% said Israel, while 33% said the Palestinians.
Why “only”? Because less than half of Americans now express greater sympathy for Israel over the Palestinians. Because this is the lowest level of support recorded in this poll since 2001 – though in other Gallup polls, it dipped as low as 37% in 1988. In that particular poll, however, support for the Palestinians was just 15%, meaning that while sympathy for Israel was low, the gap between the two was still significant. Today, that gap has narrowed to just 13 points – the lowest since 1988.
This should set alarm bells ringing.
This week, Jews around the world will mark the Purim holiday. One of the key figures in the story is King Ahasuerus of Persia, who granted Haman permission to carry out a genocide against the Jewish people – one that, miraculously, was averted.
It is striking that Ahasuerus was the grandson of another Persian king, Cyrus, the great liberator of the Jewish people, the ruler who allowed them to return to Jerusalem and rebuild the Second Temple.
In just two generations, the Jews went from living under a Persian king who freed them to one who authorized their destruction.The lesson is clear: Never be complacent. Just because support for Israel was overwhelming a generation or two ago does not mean it will always remain so. This is not to suggest that America will turn on Israel as swiftly as Ahasuerus did on the Jews. Still, these numbers – indicating dwindling support – must be taken seriously and policy adjusted accordingly.
How can American support for Israel be lower – significantly lower – now than it was before the October 7 massacre?One might have expected that the massacre and the ongoing hostage crisis would have generated lasting sympathy among fair-minded Americans. And initially, it did. But only briefly.
Wilting sympathy for Israel amidst troubling Gaza imagery
THE TELEVISION screens quickly filled with ghastly images of destruction in Gaza, and sympathy for Israel began to wilt. Hardcore Israel-haters didn’t wait for those images; they were already marching and demonstrating against Israel on October 8, well before Israel counterattacked. For others, the relentless flood of heartbreaking images from Gaza and negative stories about Israel had an effect.A recent study by Yale University professor Edieal Pinker found that The New York Times’s coverage of the Israel-Hamas War overwhelmingly generated sympathy for the Palestinian people while downplaying both Hamas’s responsibility for the conflict and Israel’s suffering. Pinker reached these conclusions after analyzing 1,561 Times articles about the conflict between October 7, 2023, and June 7, 2024.
“It is common to go a week at a time without a single mention of IDF deaths even when such deaths were frequent,” he wrote. “The net result of these imbalances and others is to create a depiction of events that is imbalanced toward creating sympathy for the Palestinian side, places most of the agency in the hands of Israel, is often at odds with actual events, and fails to give readers an understanding of how Israelis are experiencing the war.”That kind of coverage has an impact.The Israeli media, for the most part, has not extensively covered the devastation and suffering in Gaza. The American media has, and over the last 16 months, the constant stream of images has undoubtedly shaped public perception of the conflict. This helps explain why support for Israel has dropped from 54% in 2023 (before October 7) to 46% today and why the gap between support for Israel and the Palestinians has shrunk from a high of 52 points in 2013 to just 13 points now.And then there is the Trump effect.Trump is unabashedly pro-Israel, and his policies reflect this sentiment. One might think that strong pro-Israel rhetoric from the White House would trickle down and boost public support. But this poll – conducted just weeks after he took office – suggests the opposite. In today’s deeply divided America, where the part of the population that hates Trump tends to oppose whatever he supports, the president’s vocal backing of Israel may have pushed many of his critics in the opposite direction.Indeed, Democratic support for Israel plummeted by a staggering 14 points in the past year from 35% to 21%, while support for the Palestinians jumped from 43% to 59%.Another concerning trend in the poll is that, while Republican support for Israel remains overwhelming – 54 points higher than among Democrats (75% vs. 21%) – it is at its lowest level since 2005, when it stood at 73%. Support among Republicans slipped from 80% last year to 75% this year, possibly reflecting the influence of isolationist voices within the party, such as Tucker Carlson.
THERE IS a common misconception that massive Republican support for Israel is a recent phenomenon. However, Gallup polling dating back to 1988 shows that even then, more Republicans sympathized with Israel over the Palestinians – by a margin of 43% to 37%. Today, that margin stands at 75% to 21%.These poll results carry two clear policy implications for Israel.First, far more must be done to improve Israel’s image in the US and counteract the steady drumbeat of negative coverage.American Jewish organizations and NGOs spend millions of dollars annually trying to improve Israel’s image, yet this poll indicates that the current approach is not working. A new, more effective strategy is needed, and the Israeli government must engage on a much larger scale. This is becoming a strategic issue that demands government intervention at an unprecedented level. Even then, success is far from guaranteed.Second, Israel must continue an effort it began during the current war – as a result of the US slow-walking vital arms to Israel – to locally produce as much of its weaponry as possible.Under the 10-year Memorandum of Understanding signed with then-president Barack Obama, the US-Israel military aid agreement currently provides Israel with $3.8 billion annually in aid – a tremendous benefit.But the catch is that all of it now must be spent in the US, leading Israel to purchase not only fighter aircraft and helicopters in the US but also missiles, mortars, and basic munitions from American manufacturers because it ends up saving money. That makes sense. But the downside is that it creates a dangerous dependence.The Trump administration has approved billions in arms sales to Israel in recent weeks – a critical lifeline. But that type of support is not a given. It exists largely because of the perception that the vast majority of Americans back Israel.But what if they don’t? After all, in the 18-34 year-old demographic – according to the Gallup poll – 48% sympathize more with the Palestinians, and only 29% with the Israelis. What if US support continues to erode?Israel must prepare for that possibility, however distant it may seem. These polling trends are sobering and must not be ignored.