In a significant shift from most European countries' foreign policies, Spain, Norway, and Ireland have recently announced their decision to recognize the Palestinian state with east Jerusalem as its capital. This move, considered by many a political statement due to its impracticality, is seen by Israel’s critics as a huge victory, while Israel’s supporters see it as yet another regrettable diplomatic decision as the IDF expands operations around Rafah.
Daniel Shadmy, the spokesperson of the European Leadership Network (ELNET) in Israel, an NGO fostering Israeli-European ties, explained to The Media Line that these three countries' decisions need to be contextualized in a larger perspective of Europe’s relations with Israel. “Israel’s relationship with Europe has been quite positive, especially since October 7, resulting in a high level of support of most countries that continues to this day.”
“In fact, while the US has been debating on withholding weapons meant for Israel,” Shadmy continued, “most European countries, led by Germany, continue to purchase Israeli defense technology to protect their own citizens in programs that cost billions of dollars.”
Shadmy also pointed out that despite the decision made by Spain, Ireland, and Norway, European support for Israel remains strong in government circles as well as among the population. “Since October 7, Europeans have shown unprecedented support for Israel, including the UK, Germany, France, and Italy. From rejecting the accusations by the ICJ and the ICC to the adoption of the definition of the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance of anti-Semitism, most European countries are actively supporting Israel in the ways they can.”
A silent majority support Israel
According to the ELNET spokesman, a significant majority of people in Europe support Israel despite the appearance of protests in the streets of major capitals. “For instance, even in seemingly less serious contexts like Eurovision, the competition suddenly became very political. The public votes from countries such as Ireland, Spain, Belgium, Norway, the UK, and France gave Israel the largest number of points. This garnered comments even from political leaders, highlighting the widespread support, so that's something that is noteworthy,” Shadmy added.
“Regarding the recognition of the Palestinian state, the decisions by Spain, Ireland, and Norway assume that the absence of a Palestinian state is the source of the conflict. However, in the view
of most European countries, unilaterally recognizing the Palestinian state without a final peace agreement with Israel seems like a reward for terrorism,” he added.
”The countries that are recognizing the Palestinian state say they are doing this because they believe it will pressure Israel to stop the war, but they are doing this primarily as a political move to appeal to their voters. Regardless of why they are doing it, at the end of the day, their recognition of such a state doesn't even meet the minimum criteria for statehood, so it’s sort of meaningless.”
Shadmy concluded his points by observing that some countries are publicly acknowledging this problem. “This week Denmark's Parliament voted down the bill to recognize the Palestinian state after the Danish foreign minister himself said that the necessary preconditions for an independent country were lacking, so the fact to recognize the Palestinian state without being part of some sort of a process and negotiation with Israel isn’t going to lead to progress but is rather a PR stunt. However, it is a PR stunt that can have very bad consequences.”
A researcher at the European University, Professor Dr. Beatriz Gutiérrez López, explained that the recognition of a state is primarily symbolic and that Spain, Norway, and Ireland are aware of the contradictions that make a Palestinian state unpractical.
“On the one hand, there was an international wave of recognition after 140 UN members voted to support a Palestinian state at the General Assembly. However, this declaration is symbolic, since UN membership requires an internationally accepted state and this state soliciting membership at the UN.”
“On the other hand, after a halt in the Gaza war, the Rafah ground operation has reawakened interest in providing symbolic support due to the current division, since 2006, between the Gaza Strip with a Hamas de facto government, and West Bank under Fatah. That division hinders any kind of unified international recognition effort. Additionally, in the case of Spain, its own political turmoil with the new Amnesty Act and corruption scandals made recognition a useful smokescreen,” explained Dr. López.
Symbolically recognizing Palestine seems to overlook the difficulties of a viable two-state solution. Those advocating recognition are looking at the broad idea of Palestinian statehood rather than focusing on Palestinian leaders as peace process participants. “Since it is a symbolic recognition, and also considering that Hamas is included in the EU list of terrorist groups, Ireland, Norway, and Spain seem to be ignoring the fact that there is no real ‘two-state solution.’ They are not looking at the leaders in terms of what kind of political actors they represent, and whether are they viable interlocutors in a future peace process involving Israel and a unified Palestinian entity.”
According to Dr. López, Spain, Ireland, and Norway are also leveraging the increasing pro-Palestinian sentiment in universities and public demonstrations. “Right now, they are not defending any clear position apart from the idea of a Palestinian state with a legal capacity to negotiate a ceasefire or peace agreement with international validity. Mostly, they are capitalizing on the increasing pro-Palestinian movement at universities, with demonstrations and encampments.”
Spain, Norway, and Ireland are also ignoring the situation of the hostages kidnapped by Hamas into Gaza on October 7. “We can see that political declarations in support of the hostages are much softer than those ones in favor of a Palestinian state,” says Dr. Lopez. “To many leftist movements who support the Palestinian cause, it’s problematic to recognize openly that part of the Palestinian leadership has kidnapped and holds more than 130 hostages, who have been moved from one place to the other all along the Strip since October, involving sexual abuses, tortures, and murder.”
Despite being impractical, in the sense that a Palestinian state still needs to meet specific statehood requirements, the statement made by Spain, Ireland, and Norway can have damaging consequences for the relations between Israel and these European countries.
According to Dr. López’s analysis, “An international realignment is not probable due to the rest of international commitments of the three countries. However, colder relations could occur around economic investment, technology, and information sharing, and even aspects such as counter-terrorist cooperation may be affected. So breaking diplomatic relations is probably not in the scenario, but reshaping the maps of mutual support might be a reality in the middle-to-long run,” she concluded.