The US strikes on the Houthis are intended to send a message that the Trump administration is not going to repeat the mistakes of the past. Time will tell if they actually have an impact.
The Houthis have proven a hard nut to crack, because they hide their weapons in caves and have many capabilities that they built up since 2015. They are backed by Iran and have extended the range of their ballistic missiles and drones.
The essence of the Trump doctrine is to implement different policies than the previous administration. This includes a ceasefire in Gaza and a push for a ceasefire in Ukraine.
It also can mean increasing strikes on the Houthis and offering Iran a deal. The strikes on the Houthis are a test.
Over the past 17 months, the Houthis felt they could attack shipping and Israel. They have continued to threaten ships in the Red Sea.
The Houthis's growing list of targets
The Houthis say they are backing the Palestinians in the Israel-Hamas War. Soon after the October 7 massacre, they began attacking Eilat and the South. Then they hijacked a ship they claimed was linked to a commercial owner in Israel and widened their attacks on commercial shipping.
Israel initially ignored these attacks, because it was focused on Gaza. The US stepped in with several allies to begin Operation Prosperity Guardian. This began in December 2023, but it had mixed results.
While the US Navy and other navies did help some ships, ultimately, the Houthis still attacked at the time and place of their choosing. Several strikes by the US and other countries did not deter the Houthis.
Israel then began to retaliate after a Houthi drone killed a man in Tel Aviv last July. Although Israel carried out several waves of strikes over six months, the Houthis did not stop their attacks.
In fact, the Houthis increased their attacks last November and December. The attacks only stopped with the Gaza ceasefire on January 17.
The Houthis showed that they could withstand strikes by dozens of IAF aircraft. Israel used the raids to showcase its long-range strike capabilities.
But the strikes also showed the limit of using aircraft and precision munitions. It’s possible that the US will have to learn from this lesson.
The Trump doctrine is clear on the Houthis. He is saying their time is up, and their attacks need to stop. “Hell will rain down,” he threatened.
He also spoke about hell breaking loose if Hamas did not release the hostages, however, and Hamas has continued to hold almost 60 hostages.
Trump is also using the strikes to warn Iran. In a social-media post, he wrote: “To Iran: Support for the Houthi terrorists must end IMMEDIATELY! Do NOT threaten the American People, their President, who has received one of the largest mandates in Presidential History, or Worldwide shipping lanes. If you do, BEWARE, because America will hold you fully accountable and, we won’t be nice about it!”
He accused the Houthis of waging an “unrelenting campaign of piracy, violence, and terrorism against American, and other, ships, aircraft, and drones.”
Trump also showcased how he is different from the previous administration. He wrote: “Joe Biden’s response was pathetically weak, so the unrestrained Houthis just kept going… it has been over a year since a US flagged commercial ship safely sailed through the Suez Canal, the Red Sea, or the Gulf of Aden.”
Trump did the same thing in his first term, ordering strikes on Syria after former president Barack Obama had refrained from similar strikes. Trump also ordered the strike that killed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani in 2020.
Iran is watching. The Iranian supreme leader has rejected Trump’s openness to a new deal. But Tehran now sees that Washington is serious.
The strikes on the Houthis also come as new reports indicate the group continues to work on long-range drone technology. Conflict Armament Research (CAR) said its “field investigators have uncovered evidence that Ansar Allah [Houthi] forces in Yemen are attempting to use hydrogen fuel cells to power their uncrewed systems. If successful, this experimentation would represent a major escalation in Houthi capability, enabling uncrewed vehicles – whether aerial, ground, or maritime – to carry larger payloads and to travel for far longer periods and ranges than conventional power sources allow. To CAR’s awareness, this is the first attempted use of hydrogen fuel in uncrewed systems by any non-state armed actor, globally.”
This is a serious threat. The question is whether the US airstrikes will put an end to the Houthi threats.