Ukraine carried out a complex drone attack on Russian airbases far from the front line. The attack has received a lot of attention around the world. It is seen as a game changer in the way drones can be used to attack key strategic military assets.
For instance, the drones apparently flew out of trucks that had been stationed near several Russian airbases. Dubbed Spider’s Web, the operation targeted the Belaya and Olenya airbases and may have targeted others. It is believed that several Russian Tu-22M and Tu-95 bombers were destroyed.
Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 and has been fighting a grueling war against its neighbor ever since. Drones have played an increasingly significant role in this war. Russia has been using Iranian drones for attacks on Ukrainian cities. Kyiv has innovated by making small drones for use on the front line. Reports indicate that Ukraine is producing millions of small drones annually.
The Ukrainian drone attack on Russian airfields provides several important lessons.
Drones are playing a much larger role in war
Over the last decade, the use of drones by militaries has increased exponentially. From the 1980s to the early 2000s, only a handful of countries used them. They were usually very large, similar to small airplanes. Israel was a pioneer in using drones to conduct surveillance.
Later, the US Predator became a symbol of the way drones could be used on the battlefield. The technology behind these types of drones was complex, requiring advanced electro-optics and communications systems, enabling them to fly many hours far from bases.
Eventually, the type and number of drones being used worldwide shifted because of the growth in the commercial market of small quadcopter commercial drones. Many of these were made in China. Innovations enable the use of these drones for surveillance and also increasingly to carry small weapons.
In addition, there were advances in what is called “loitering munitions” or one-way attack drones. These systems include a drone that is used to kamikaze into a target. Israel has pioneered all these layers of drones, from smaller surveillance ones to using loitering munitions. It also recently acknowledged that it uses armed drones.
The major change in drone warfare has come as other countries begin to pioneer their use. Iran has been using drones since the 1980s, but recently, it has become an exporter of them. The Shahed 136, for instance, was exported to Russia. It is relatively cheap and has a long range. Moscow has used it to terrorize Ukraine.
These drones are often relatively easy to shoot down. They don’t fly very fast, and their capabilities are similar in some ways to the German V-1 flying bomb from 1944. Nevertheless, they are increasingly being used, providing countries like Russia with a cheap type of cruise missile. It also means that it doesn’t have to risk its air force over Ukraine’s skies.
Small drones matter more
As the use of drones on the battlefield has grown exponentially, there have been rapid innovations in the use of small drones. These are usually called unmanned aerial systems (UAS) to describe the large numbers and types of drones that are now being used.
Ukraine has been a pioneer in the use of small drones, which are more helpful on the battlefield because they are cheap and attritable, meaning that they can be lost in large numbers at the front and easily be replaced. This means that Ukraine didn’t have to rely on Western countries to resupply its drone fleet. Kyiv began the war with several types of drones, including the Turkish-made Bayraktar. However, these larger ones proved vulnerable on the battlefield because can be shot down with air defenses.
Small drones, such as quadcopters, can be easily launched by infantry, and they can be used to help with targeting fire, monitor enemy movements, kill enemy infantry, and help artillery with guidance and battle damage assessment. Over time, the large deployment of these small drones being locally made in Ukraine put this advantage in the hands of small units at the front. Hundreds of thousands of them were flowing to the army. At sea, Ukraine also used unmanned vessels. This gave the embattled country, which lacks manpower and finances, the ability to confront the more powerful Russia.
Small drones need new tech
The use of small drones on the battlefield is not a magic wand that changes the face of war. They may carry warheads such as grenades or mortar shells, and they can monitor enemy movements. However, small drones usually cannot fly for very long. They are also vulnerable to wind gusts, cold, and heat. Over time, all of these challenges are being overcome.
Yet, these challenges are not only about improving technology. Drones are usually flown by someone with a controller. Many Ukrainian drones are what are called “first-person-view” or FPV. This means the operator can see what the drone sees as it careens toward an enemy position. However, drones can be jammed. Israeli companies have pioneered in this regard. All of Israel’s large defense companies, including Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), Elbit Systems, and Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, make counter-UAS systems. Many smaller Israeli companies are also pioneering this technology, which is increasingly being used by the IDF in the current war.
How can drone operators get around the new technologies? In Ukraine, a lot of drones are now being flown using fiber optic cables. This prevents jamming because there is no radio frequency used to guide them.
A game changer?
The Ukrainian attack on the Russian airfields has been seen as a game changer in warfare. Some have compared it to a Pearl Harbor-type of event. The Japanese navy in World War II pioneered the use of aircraft carriers used on long-range missions to wreak havoc on December 7, 1941. The US also had aircraft carriers. However, Japan showed how its use of the air arm at sea could sink major ships, such as the sinking of the British Prince of Wales and Repulse on December 10, 1941. Within a year, the US had gained the upper hand after the Battle of Midway, and it was Japan that was losing the carrier battle at sea.
The Ukraine attack, therefore, is an important incident, but this capability was widely expected. Countries that are making large numbers of drones, such as China, are feared because of what large drone swarms can likely achieve on the battlefield. Drones have already wreaked havoc in unexpected ways. Iran used drones and cruise missiles to attack a key energy facility in Saudi Arabia in 2019, for instance.
Ukraine is showing what is possible. It overcame the logistical problem by putting drones in trucks and being able to infiltrate deep inside Russia. They had some kind of pre-programming and capabilities that appear new. Nevertheless, the mission took more than a year to plan.
A message for the West
Some commentators believe that the Ukrainian success lifts the curtain on what comes next in terms of threats to the West. Kyiv has shown what is possible, and now, countries like China or even terrorist groups might try to replicate this in attacks on the US military or on other countries. The fact is that this threat was already known, and Western countries have been investing heavily in new counter-UAS technologies.
However, the challenge is that there are too many places to defend. Because the counter-drone tech, whether it be jammers, lasers, or even rifles and missiles, has a limited range, means every place that needs to be defended requires multiple layers of anti-drone defenses. Even if they have some defenses, there are types of drones that may avoid them. This is not an easy threat to overcome, and it is growing exponentially.