National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir's announcement on Monday regarding his choice of Israel’s next police chief, Avshalom Peled, served not just as a general announcement, but also as a warning to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he could act to topple the government if Israel agrees to concessions in a hostage deal that Ben-Gvir opposes.
Ben-Gvir's announcement was not brought for approval to minister Benny Gantz's National Unity party, which responded on Monday evening that it expected Netanyahu to respect a coalition agreement giving it veto power over major appointments.The fact that Ben-Gvir made the announcement without taking Gantz into account plants the excuse to leave the government if Gantz applies his veto. This connects directly to a threat from Ben-Gvir earlier on Monday, in a post on X, that if Netanyahu ends Israel's war against Hamas without an extensive attack on Hamas in Rafah, he will “cease to have a mandate to serve as prime minister.”
In other words, the timing of the police chief appointment wasn’t a coincidence, but a reminder of Ben-Gvir’s leverage over Netanyahu. In order to dissolve the 120-member Knesset and force an election, 61 MKs must support its dissolution. The departure of Ben-Gvir’s six seats in itself is not enough to bring down the 72 seat governing coalition, but it will give Gantz the power to bring down the government in the near future by leaving with his eight seats.Ben-Gvir is hovering around the 10-seat mark in most polls, and he thus stands to gain from an election. But in order not to receive blame for the rise of a possible centrist government, he needs to be able to explain to his voters why he decided to leave. Inaction on Rafah coupled with an inability to move forward with his choice of commissioner would serve as an adequate reason.
Unilaterally announcing Peled as his choice for police chief may be a relatively empty threat, as it first must receive the approval of Israel’s Advisory Committee on Senior Civil Service Appointments. This committee usually approves the candidates brought before it, but in Peled’s case, it may not.
Peled engaged in illegal quid-pro-quo
The Police Investigations Department recommended in 2015 that he not be promoted after a recording revealed that he engaged in a seemingly illegal quid-pro-quo with a local authority leader. Peled wasn’t indicted after the recording was disqualified as evidence due to privacy-related infractions. Then-police chief Roni Alsheich ignored the recommendation and promoted Peled, but the advisory committee may not.Still, Ben-Gvir’s announcement and National Unity’s subsequent response that it expected Netanyahu to respect its veto power, if it chooses to use it, upped the pressure on the prime minister to appease Ben-Gvir by other means to keep the national security minister on board.The move was typical of Ben-Gvir, who, on a number of occasions, has threatened to leave the government unless he receives certain concessions. For example, Ben-Gvir threatened to jump ship when Netanyahu was about to announce a freeze on the judicial reforms just over a year ago, following mass protests and strikes. Netanyahu convinced him to stay despite the freeze by agreeing to a government decision to begin the process of forming a National Guard, which was a major policy goal for Ben-Gvir.This time around, Ben-Gvir may condition remaining in the government after a hostage deal on a commitment from Netanyahu to push through Peled’s appointment regardless of the National Unity veto. If Peled’s candidacy is struck down, Ben-Gvir will likely demand something else.For most of 2023, Ben-Gvir was considered a loose cannon and the largest potential threat to Netanyahu’s government. But with haredi parties taking over in recent months as the major political threat due to the issue of haredi national service, Ben-Gvir made his presence felt and reminded the prime minister that he must be taken into account as well.