Benjamin Netanyahu stands among the longest-serving Western leaders, with over 16 years in office. At 75, he remains steadfast in his distinctive strategy: short-term focus.
Perhaps a habit from his commando days, or simply a formula that has worked for him, Netanyahu doesn’t craft decisions with long-term objectives in mind.
Instead, he dissects the long term into countless short-term goals, tackling one task at a time, achieving it, and then deciding on the next. In this approach, the long-term plan often shifts along the way.
In essence, his strategy resembles a real-life "Squid Game" mission more than a traditional game of chess.
The overlap of Donald Trump's presidency with Netanyahu’s personal and political challenges has placed the Israeli leader in a unique position.
On one side, the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague has issued war crimes charges against him, a scenario as surreal as prosecuting Churchill and Roosevelt after World War II.
Domestically, Netanyahu is embroiled in a trial with three indictments, and his coalition is faltering due to contentious issues such as ultra-Orthodox military conscription and the challenging next stages of the hostage deal, which include concluding the war.
On the other side, Trump has declared his intention to expand the Abraham Accords to include additional nations, particularly Saudi Arabia—the most influential Arab state today.
True to his character, Trump seeks to claim the Nobel Prize that eluded him during his first term. For Trump, Netanyahu is merely a supporting actor in this grand production, with no room for interference in the script.
The implication: 2020 is making a comeback. Both Netanyahu and Trump have been ousted and returned since then.
The Abraham Accords with the UAE were the crowning achievement of their terms, and they now aim to replicate that success, this time with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman taking on the role previously held by Abu Dhabi’s MBZ.
What does this mean for the continuation of the hostage deal? Netanyahu faces a pivotal decision: secure an agreement with Saudi Arabia, partner with the U.S. for a strike on Iran, nullify ICC charges, potentially win a Nobel Prize, and call for elections—though this would likely topple his government. The bonus? In the event of elections, his trial would automatically pause, much like Trump’s legal maneuvers.
The alternative is to align with the far-right elements of his government, prolong the war beyond the initial stages of the deal, extend his tenure by two years, leave hostages in Gaza, risk alienating Trump, and face his ongoing trial.
Nobel or Prison?
In other words, Netanyahu’s choice boils down to this: Nobel or prison?
But what could go wrong? A key obstacle lies in Saudi Arabia’s insistence on recognition of a Palestinian state, a demand that has become a non-starter in Israel since October 7, uniting political factions from right to center-left in opposition. A creative solution to this issue could mark the beginning of a new phase in combating the "axis of evil."
Sticking to his short-term strategy, Netanyahu keeps all options open, knowing that in the Middle East, anything can derail even the best-laid plans. As the stages unfold, new opportunities often become clearer.
Trump’s playbook is as transparent as a Macy’s storefront, while Netanyahu’s requires satellite imagery to decipher.
No worries, though—if Trump encounters difficulties, he can always ask his new friend for a SpaceX login.
Moshe Klughaft is an international strategic advisor who has worked with over 10 world leaders, including Netanyahu, and is a commentator on Israel’s Channel 12 News(TV).