As more of the hostages come home, as scores of Gazans begin returning to what remains of their communities north of the Netzarim corridor, as rockets cease flying at Israel from Lebanon, and as even the Houthis are relatively quiet, it is slowly starting to feel like the current war is ending.
There has not been any official announcement nor any formal signing ceremony.
Yet life is beginning to reclaim its pre-war rhythm. One key indicator: fewer husbands, sons, and brothers are leaving their families, jobs, and universities for many months of reserve duty at the same pace as has been the case since October 7.
Still, the war’s end is accompanied by a sinking, sour feeling among many.
Hamas’s military capabilities have been decimated, its top leadership and some 20,000 terrorists have been killed, its rocket and missile arsenal depleted, its tunnel system badly hit, and tens of thousands of people whom it governs left without homes to return to. Yet, because it still has terrorists who – when the IDF is not in the vicinity – can don army fatigues, green headbands, and black ski masks, and wave Kalashnikovs in the air, Hamas is claiming victory.
Israel has not toppled Hamas’s rule over Gaza – at least not yet – but for Hamas to portray this as a victory is an act of staggering self-deception.
The same in Lebanon.
Hezbollah decapitated
Hezbollah’s leadership has been decapitated, upward of 75% of its missile and rocket arsenal destroyed, much of the infrastructure it built in southern Lebanon for an invasion of Israel has been uprooted, its patron Iran has been badly weakened, and its rearmament route through what was Bashar al-Assad’s Syria has been severed. Yet it, too, is claiming “victory for the resistance.”
Both terrorist groups are deceiving themselves. Israel must not do the same.
True, after a horrific start to the war on October 7, Israel has – over the past 15 months – reshaped the Middle East. The threats it faces today are not as great as they were then.
However, Hamas still exists in Gaza, and Hezbollah has not disappeared from Lebanon. Many Israelis dreamed of a completely different reality following the war – a reality where Hamas had surrendered in Gaza and Israel had forced Hezbollah to agree to the establishment of a demilitarized no-man’s land on the Lebanese side of the northern border.
Neither of those dreams materialized. Instead, the reality is that both groups still exist and will try to regroup and rearm to fight another day.
This is where Israel must stand vigilant. It must ensure this can never happen.
To do so, Israel must avoid falling into the trap of self-deception. While Hamas and Hezbollah delude themselves by saying they defeated Israel, the facts on the ground refute this.
Israel, however, must also be honest about its own realities.
One deception it must avoid is that the mechanism set up under the current ceasefire, whereby a private US security firm checking cars bringing Gazans to the northern part of the Strip, will prevent arms smuggling. It won’t. In addition, those returning there on foot are not being checked and can smuggle in small arms.
The test will be what Israel will do about those arms when a permanent ceasefire goes into effect. Forget about small arms and pistols. But will Israel allow Hamas terrorists in Beit Hanoun to brandish RPGs once again?
Even before a permanent ceasefire goes into effect, Israel will be tested – as it has already been, both in Lebanon and Gaza – about whether it will insist that the agreements be honored completely, or whether it will allow Hamas and Hezbollah to shave corners.
So far, Israel has insisted on total compliance with the agreements. On Sunday, Jerusalem delayed the reopening of crossings from southern to northern Gaza because Hamas did not uphold the terms of the agreement and was playing games. Likewise, it prevented Hezbollah provocateurs from returning to villages in southern Lebanon before the Lebanese Army had cleared the areas of Hezbollah fighters and arms as stipulated in the ceasefire agreement there.
Both Hamas and Hezbollah will be testing Israel in the coming days, resting on the assumption that what was is what will be, meaning that the restraint Israel showed before October 7 to prevent escalation and a wider conflagration will be the same modus operandi this time as well.
Israel needs to demonstrate in deeds – not in words, but deeds – that the rules of the game have changed. It must not only enforce ceasefire agreements but also act decisively whenever Hamas or Hezbollah take steps that endanger its national security.
The IDF said that a drone strike in Tulkarem on Monday killed a Hamas commander and another Hamas terrorist. That strike exemplifies the kind of determination that Israel must deploy both in Gaza and along the border with Lebanon going forward.
Israel has not yet achieved the “absolute victory” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu talked about in Gaza, but the reality there has changed dramatically. It is now up to Israel to ensure that the situation does not revert to what it was before October 7.
The same applies in Lebanon. French President Emmanuel Macron reportedly urged Netanyahu on Sunday to withdraw from Lebanon as stipulated by the ceasefire agreement, arguing that staying would weaken Lebanon’s new president and government who are trying to assert control over the country.
Israel ignored those appeals. It cannot withdraw until the Lebanese Army – whose effectiveness was questionable even before a report Sunday that its chief intelligence office in southern Lebanon passed sensitive security information to Hezbollah – moves south and takes up Hezbollah’s position there.
Even then, if Hezbollah fighters or flags are spotted within spitting distance of Metula or other border communities after the IDF’s withdrawal, Israel must act swiftly, as it would against terrorist activity in Tulkarm.
As October 7 so painfully showed, Israel cannot afford illusions about its enemies – that they are deterred or weakened. If it sees them rise again on its border, it must act decisively. For Israel to deceive itself is deadly.
Whether Hamas or Hezbollah regroup, rearm, and once again pose a significant threat to Israel’s national security depends now on Jerusalem, and whether it has learned the cardinal lesson of October 7: it cannot tolerate organizations committed to its destruction building up their capacities to carry out their designs right across the border.