Israel has seriously considered attacking Iran’s nuclear program multiple times since October 2024, The Jerusalem Post can reveal on Thursday, following The New York Times report.
Early Thursday, the Times reported on Israel’s hope to attack Iran’s nuclear program this May, with direct support from the US.
However, the Post understands that right after the Islamic Republic’s attack with around 200 ballistic missiles on Israel on October 1, and following the Shaldag special forces’ success against an underground clandestine facility in Syria on September 8, Jerusalem had seriously considered taking out Tehran’s nuclear program at the time.
In real time, then-presidential candidate Donald Trump even called on Israel to eliminate Iran’s nuclear program.
Multiple top Israeli officials were theoretically open to the idea, and the air force was more confident than ever that it could pull off such an operation following a successful attack on Iran in April 2024 and successful attacks on Yemen, which is even farther away from Israel than the Islamic Republic.
But top Israeli officials were not ready to carry out such an operation without US approval, including American protection from an anticipated even larger ballistic missile retaliation by Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Given opposition by the Biden administration, Israel opted to eliminate Iran’s S-300 air defenses and much of its ballistic missile production capabilities.
The air force’s operation was so successful and so completely wiped out Iran’s advanced air defenses that, along with the success of the ground operation in Syria, suddenly some top Israeli officials shifted their understanding that eliminating Iran’s nuclear facilities was possible in a best case scenario, but with lots of question marks, to the idea that it was doable with very high confidence.
However, once again, Biden officials put up a stop sign, and Israeli officials decided that, given Trump’s electoral victory, they would wait for him to enter office and then try to sell him on an attack in his opening months.
Various attempts to bring Washington into attack
As the NYT correctly reports, various attempts were made to not only have Israel attack Iran but also to bring Washington into the attack.
This ran into the opposition of portions of the Trump administration, who are generally anti-war and would highly prefer a deal with Iran, especially in a scenario where the US could be dragged into a war.
Israeli officials also hoped to carry out the attack while US Central Command (CENTCOM) Commanding Officer Michael E. Kurilla was still in power, given that he is stepping down soon.
However, Trump ultimately opted for nuclear diplomacy with Iran first, and even later sent Kurilla to deliver the message that Israel would need to stand down from attacking.
NYT reveals scenarios of Israel in a hybrid attack with the US, either a massive bombing campaign or a combined attack using airstrikes and commando raids, as Israel did to Syria’s underground facility.
Iran has a major underground nuclear facility at Fordow, is building a new facility at Natanz, and has other underground facilities as well that it has advertised through public videos.
The report from the NYT does not discuss the possibility of Israel attacking Iran alone, which top Israeli defense officials believe it could pull off, though they would highly prefer a US missile defense blanket and even some direct American involvement in the attack.
Some Israeli officials are concerned that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has put too much emphasis on Israel carrying out such an attack only with the direct involvement of the US – something which seems less necessary given that they view Iran’s remaining air defenses as negligible compared to Israel’s cutting-edge air power capabilities.
The leak of Israeli plans to the NYT appears to be an American attempt to send a message to Khamenei about how close he came to losing his nuclear program and how close he could come if the current nuclear talks do not succeed.
However, if US President Donald Trump does strike a deal with Khamenei, and if that deal is “mediocre” by Israeli standards, Jerusalem may need to act alone.
Trump recently sent CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Israel to meet with Netanyahu and Mossad Director David Barnea to discuss various such covert options, which would still fall short of an open major air strike.
The book Target Tehran describes Mossad operations and alleged Mossad operations from 2002 to 2023, destroying nuclear facilities at Natanz twice, at Karaj, Iranian drone facilities, assassinating Tehran’s nuclear chief Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, and other operations.
Some of these attacks took place during Barnea’s era.
The Post understands that Barnea and Ratcliffe have an excellent relationship and have met multiple times already since the new CIA director took office, with many American intelligence officials entranced by Israel’s operations against Iran over the years and its beeper attacks against Hezbollah in September 2024.
Within Israel, the heated debate is ongoing about how long Israel can wait to attack Iran to see if Trump can get a sufficient nuclear deal to push back the Iranian nuclear threat, and whether it should still launch airstrikes or covert attacks in the event of a mediocre deal by Trump.
Iran’s nuclear program has been delayed by nearly a decade due to a series of overt and covert operations directed by Netanyahu, the Prime Minister’s Office said in a statement released Wednesday.
Netanyahu directed “countless overt and covert operations” that have been instrumental in preventing the Islamic Republic from acquiring a nuclear arsenal, the PMO claimed, efforts that have set back Iran’s nuclear program by nearly ten years.
“Prime Minister Netanyahu has led the global campaign against Iran’s nuclear program for over a decade – even when others dismissed the threat, calling it a ‘political spin’ and labeling the prime minister ‘paranoid,’” the statement read.
Trump blocked a planned Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear sites in favor of negotiating a deal with Iran to limit its nuclear program, the New York Times reported on Wednesday, citing administration officials and others with information on the matter.
The PMO emphasized that the delay was made possible by Netanyahu’s insistence on maintaining a firm and often controversial stance on Iran despite facing considerable opposition both at home and abroad.
“As the prime minister has stated repeatedly: Israel will not allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons,” the statement said.
Netanyahu has avoided denying that Trump had blocked the strike.
Trump’s decision came after discussions on whether to provide support to the Jewish state or follow a diplomatic course, with some in Washington favoring a more hawkish approach. In contrast, others were dubious that a strike could destroy the Islamic Republic’s nuclear capabilities.
However, an agreement was ultimately obtained, deciding against military action as Iran consented to talks.
The president told Israel of his decision earlier in April, according to the report, prompting Netanyahu’s Washington visit.
Israel had made plans, according to the report, to attack Iranian nuclear sites next month, with the IDF prepared to carry them out with US endorsement.
This endorsement would be key to the success of Israel’s plan, which would require US help, rendering Israel’s ally a key agent in the attack.
The NYT report said that multiple officials briefed on Israel’s plans and confidential discussions inside the Trump administration who spoke on condition of anonymity stated that Israel long planned to attack Iranian nuclear facilities, including “rehearsing bombing runs and calculating how much damage it could do with or without American help.”
This was escalated as support within the Israeli cabinet for a strike grew after Iran suffered a “string of setbacks” in 2024, such as the April 14 ballistic missile attack on Israel when most of their missiles were unable to penetrate American and Israeli defenses, as well as the attacks on Hezbollah, the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s rule over Syria cutting off a prime weapons smuggling route for Iran, the destruction of air defense systems in Iran and Syria, and that of facilities that Iran uses to make fuel for its ballistic missiles.
Senior Israeli officials reportedly updated American counterparts on a plan that would have combined a commando raid on underground nuclear sites with a bombing campaign, with Israel hoping that American aircraft would aid in the bombing.
However, Israeli military officials stated that the commando operation would not be carried out until October, with Netanyahu needing it carried out more quickly, NYT added.