Israeli strikes will not wipe out Iran’s nuclear knowledge, former intel. official says

After decades of preparations and warnings, Israel launched a massive preemptive strike on Iran and its nuclear facilities on Friday.

Following years of a shadow war, the Middle East is now bracing for a full-scale showdown between the two archrivals.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the operation, dubbed “Rising Lion,” did not have a set deadline. Defense officials quoted in Israeli media estimated that the conflict could last for weeks.

According to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), the military targeted over 100 sites in the Islamic Republic.

“Two hundred fighter jets launched an attack overnight and dropped over 330 different munitions. Over 100 targets across Iran were targeted during the night, including senior figures of the Iranian General Staff and leaders of the nuclear program,” IDF spokesperson Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin said in a statement to the media Friday morning.

Defrin confirmed that several senior members of Iran’s security leadership had been killed, along with several nuclear scientists. Iran’s air defense systems were also targeted, he added.

Brig. Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and former head of the Research Division in Israeli military intelligence, said the current military operation could push Iran’s nuclear program back by decades, to its pre-military aspirations in the 1990s. Still, he cautioned it would likely not be able to fully eliminate the program or its infrastructure.

“It is very difficult to erase knowledge that has been acquired,” Kuperwasser told The Media Line. “Iranians know how to build centrifuges and other nuclear components. The only thing that can stop the nuclear program is a continued military effort or regime change in Iran.”

Danny Citrinowicz, a senior researcher in the Iran and the Shi’ite Axis Program at the Institute for National Security Studies, echoed that sentiment. “The popular assumption is that Israel cannot completely destroy Iran’s nuclear program, but rather push it back for several years,” he told The Media Line.

The assassination of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami, one of the country’s most important military figures, was confirmed by Iranian state television early Friday morning. The IDF said Iranian Armed Forces Chief of Staff Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri and Khatam-al Anbiya Central Headquarters head Maj. Gen. Gholam Ali Rashid were also killed.

Images of burnt-out apartment buildings in Tehran high-rises emerged on Iranian and social media as the sun rose over the capital.

“The Iranian military command and control center has taken a major hit,” Citrinowicz said. “Even though their replacements have already been announced, this is a significant move that has targeted senior officials very close to the Iranian leader and is a major blow to the prestige of the Iranian regime.”

Israel's strategy in attacking Iran

Many Israeli defense and political leaders believe an attack on Iran could provoke regime change and bring down the hardline leadership driving the country’s nuclear ambitions. A new, possibly more moderate government might prioritize domestic stability and economic recovery over nuclear weapons development.

In a statement, Netanyahu said the Israeli military had also targeted the Natanz atomic facility. Footage on social media showed smoke rising from the area.

“Natanz is a very important facility that hosts a wide range of elements for nuclear capability,” Kuperwasser said.

The Natanz nuclear site is widely seen as the heart of Iran’s nuclear program, believed to produce most of the country’s nuclear fuel. Heavily fortified, it is buried roughly 50 meters underground, making it extremely difficult to strike.

“There is no doubt that Natanz has been severely hit,” Citrinowicz said. “At this point, little is known. Even though we are seeing explosions there, the depth of the facility makes the results of the attack unclear.”

According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, which monitors Iranian nuclear activity, Israel did not target the Bushehr or Isfahan nuclear sites. The Arak and Fordow facilities were also not confirmed targets. Fordow, located in the holy city of Qom, is one of Iran’s most secretive and fortified sites, allegedly chosen to protect it from airstrikes. It is Iran’s main uranium enrichment facility and a major concern for Israel and the West.

“If Fordow remains, Iran will be left with significant residual capability,” Citrinowicz added. “Israel could be preparing for another wave of attacks or hoping the Americans will join the attack.”

“This is just the beginning of the attack,” said Kuperwasser. “It will take time to assess the level of success.”

“This depends on the quality of Israeli intelligence, which has proven to be good so far, but may not necessarily be sufficient to assess the results,” he added.

Last year marked the first time Israel and Iran exchanged direct attacks. In April 2024, Iran launched a massive drone and missile barrage at Israel in response to an Israeli airstrike on its consulate in Damascus. Israel answered with a limited strike inside Iran days later. Tensions rose again in September 2024, when Israeli special forces raided an Iranian missile production site near Masyaf, Syria. Weeks later, Israeli airstrikes in Beirut killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, and Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran by a mysterious explosion. Iran responded by firing roughly 200 ballistic missiles at Israeli military bases, the most direct and large-scale attack on Israel by Iran to date.

In retaliation, Israel launched its largest-ever strike on Iranian soil, involving over 100 aircraft targeting numerous sites across the country. That earlier operation focused on crippling Iran’s missile production, destroying key air defenses, and damaging a suspected nuclear weapons research facility at Parchin. It paved the way for the latest assault, allowing Israeli fighter jets to hit nuclear facilities and senior officials without major resistance.

Israel is now bracing for the next phase. Iran’s immediate response—100 drones launched Friday—was successfully intercepted. Netanyahu and senior military officials say Israel will continue its campaign and may expand the scope of its operations.

“Israel has proven it has a credible military option, and this option is still at its disposal,” Kuperwasser concluded.