Iran weighs options on talks with the US amid internal debate - analysis

Iran’s leadership sees proxies in Lebanon, Yemen, and elsewhere as a lost investment, possibly shifting focus to diplomacy with Russia and China.

US President Donald Trump seen over an Iranian flag (illustrative) (photo credit: REUTERS, SHUTTERSTOCK)
US President Donald Trump seen over an Iranian flag (illustrative)
(photo credit: REUTERS, SHUTTERSTOCK)

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi put out a statement reported in Iranian state media on Sunday that suggests Iran is having internal discussions about potential talks with the US. For now, Tehran has said it is not going to negotiate directly with the US.

This comes after reports that US President Donald Trump sent a letter to Iran and is seeking talks via mediators, and Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff discussed potential Iran talks in recent interviews.

Araghchi said, “Iran has decided it is not going to negotiate directly with the United States government for the time being, and that it is a tactic, not a strategy,” Iran’s state media IRNA noted. He was giving an interview in Iran and discussing ongoing talks with France, Germany, and the US. This comes after high-level meetings between an Iranian delegation and Russian and Chinese officials in China.

Araghchi noted, “To say that, as a strategy, we will not negotiate… that’s not how it is. We have negotiated many times [before], including very recently. Our ongoing talks with the three European countries are, in fact, something of an indirect negotiation over our nuclear program.

“The format of negotiations is always relevant in diplomatic relations, whether the two sides talk directly or indirectly. For now, our tactic and method is to have indirect negotiations,” he added.

 Illustrative image of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in front of the Israel-Lebanon border. (credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM/THE JERUSALEM POST, Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA/Handout via Reuters)
Illustrative image of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in front of the Israel-Lebanon border. (credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM/THE JERUSALEM POST, Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA/Handout via Reuters)

The negotiations

Iran is waiting to see some changes. Meanwhile, the supreme leader has pressured Iran’s president and foreign minister to not have talks with the US. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei believes the US is being deceptive. “In circumstances where there is ‘maximum pressure,’ no one in their sound mind would enter into direct talks,” he said.

The US is using a carrot-and-stick approach. The Trump administration has sought to return to maximum pressure on Iran. At the same time, it is open to talks.

“On March 12, Trump sent a letter to Iran via an emissary from the United Arab Emirates. While the content of the letter has not been officially announced, Trump has said he has asked Iran that negotiations be opened into a new deal,” IRNA noted. “Ayatollah Khamenei has reiterated that Iran will not negotiate with the United States because Tehran does not trust that Washington would adhere to any contractual obligations,” the IRNA report added.

Iran is clearly having an internal discussion about how to respond to Trump’s letter. While some don’t want to talk, others view it as a way out of the current dispute with the US. Talks could help Iran’s economy. Iran’s political leadership appears to think the proxies in Lebanon, Yemen, and elsewhere have become a potential sunk cost.

They may be pivoting toward diplomacy and working more with Russia and China. Do they want to weaponize the nuclear program, or merely use it to get concessions? This is the key question now.