Turkey faces uncertainty amid Erdogan's protest crackdown, mayor's arrest - analysis

The popular mayor, a member of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), was widely anticipated to run against Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the upcoming elections.

 People take part in a protest on the day Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu was jailed, in Istanbul, Turkey, March 23, 2025 (photo credit: REUTERS/MURAD SEZER)
People take part in a protest on the day Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu was jailed, in Istanbul, Turkey, March 23, 2025
(photo credit: REUTERS/MURAD SEZER)

An Istanbul court on Sunday solidified the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu. He was detained last week alongside dozens of others in a large police raid. The arrest has sparked massive protests in Turkey. The move is seen as politically motivated and another step on Turkey’s authoritarian road.

Istanbul’s mayor was detained on corruption charges, the state’s media claimed. He is also being held on “terror” charges.

Imamoglu “was arrested by the criminal court to which he was referred to within the scope of the ‘corruption’ investigation,” Anadolu Agency, a state-run news outlet, reported.

The popular mayor is a member of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and was widely expected to challenge Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the next elections.

Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AK) have been in power for two decades. Along with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and several other leaders, the AK is part of the rising authoritarian parties that have come to dominate a number of countries in the last decade. As such, this arrest in Turkey has potential global ramifications because other authoritarians may take a cue from it.

 People take part in a protest on the day Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu was jailed, in Istanbul, Turkey, March 23, 2025 (credit: REUTERS/UMIT BEKTAS)
People take part in a protest on the day Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu was jailed, in Istanbul, Turkey, March 23, 2025 (credit: REUTERS/UMIT BEKTAS)

Ankara’s drive to authoritarianism comes at a key time. The region is at a crossroads. Turkey could play a larger role in Syria as there is a new government there. It is also angling for positive ties with the new Trump administration. It wants to get around Iran sanctions and also play a role with Russia. The Trump administration has reached out to Moscow and Tehran. Ankara could play a role in this new regional order.

Further, Ankara is a key partner with Doha. Doha and Ankara back Hamas. Doha also has a key influence on policies in the West and even in Israel. As such, Doha’s backing of Ankara and the new Syrian government has wider ramifications. For these reasons, what happens in Turkey matters.

“No despair! Keep fighting!” the Turkish CHP wrote on social media over the weekend. Rudaw, a Kurdish media outlet, said that “Imamoglu’s arrest also came as the CHP moved ahead with a primary to elect Imamoglu as its candidate against Erdogan in 2028. 

The opposition

Polls were opened to everyone, not just CHP members, as the party sought to bolster support for their arrested mayor.

Dozens of people have been arrested in protests against Imamoglu’s arrest. Other parties in Turkey oppose the arrest.


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“There has been political interference in the will of millions of citizens. This mentality, which has been increasing tension in Turkey for decades and dragging society into unrest, continues to cause the greatest harm to Turkey’s internal peace,” DEM Party co-chair Tuncer Bakirhan said on social media.

It is likely that the arrest will proceed. Past protests in Turkey have not achieved much for the opposition. Turkey has detained other opposition politicians in the past. This could likely weaken the opposition temporarily.

Imamoglu was seen as a young and more dynamic face for the CHP, which has suffered from putting up aging candidates against the AK in the past.