For a few hours on Tuesday, haredi party leaders seemed on the verge of leaving the government. The reason was reports that the IDF had launched an operation to arrest draft dodgers. A number of “senior haredi officials,” likely MKs from the haredi parties, threatened that if even one haredi yeshiva student was arrested, the government would fall.
Haredi leaders were already on edge after IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir last week ordered the IDF’s Manpower Directorate to “immediately” formulate a plan to increase haredi draft numbers.
The IDF later explained in a statement on Tuesday that the operation was a standard procedure launched periodically, and was not targeted specifically against haredim, and the storm subsided.
After months of delays in a haredi draft bill proposal and the increasing number of draft orders, the MKs seem close to realizing their threats against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
However, the situation may not be as volatile as it seems.
First, there may be a difference between Shas and United Torah Judaism. While the two parties have put on a united front in their demand for a mild bill that would not lead to the drafting of haredim en-masse, a source with knowledge of inner deliberations regarding the bill indicated that in a premeditated political maneuver, Shas may eventually agree to support a bill, while UTJ would not.
The coalition has 68 MKs, and therefore, even without UTJ’s seven MKs, the coalition will be able to pass the bill while enabling UTJ to save face.
Unlike UTJ, a majority of Shas’s MKs served in the IDF, and a significant percentage of their constituents do as well.
Second, the haredi parties do not have anywhere else to turn. Any future government that includes even one of the current opposition parties would likely take a more aggressive stance on drafting haredim.
The reality on the ground has not changed much
For the time being, under the current government, haredim have remained out of the army, and despite the growing calls, even within the coalition, for eligible haredi men to join the IDF, the reality on the ground has not changed very much.
In addition, the haredi parties currently control significant ministries and parliamentary positions. While the MKs strongly oppose IDF service for yeshiva students, the yeshivot themselves and the haredi school systems receive significant state funding, which could be jeopardized if the haredim are not part of the next government.
Third, while haredi MKs, especially from UTJ, may receive directives from their respective rabbinic authorities to leave the government, this does not necessarily mean an election will follow - haredi MKs may set conditions for returning to the government, similar to what National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir did when he left the government in January and returned to it in March.
There is no arguing that pressure on the government and the haredi MKs will continue to grow, as long as reservists continue putting in long stints of reserve duty while haredi draft numbers remain low.
However, the threats by haredi MKs to topple the government over one arrest may be exaggerated.