Hamas vs Israel: Ceasefire declared after 11 days, but will it last?

The 4th major conflagration between Israel and Hamas since the Islamist group seized power in the coastal enclave in 2007 was underway.

The current round of fighting, named Operation Guardian of the Walls by the IDF, lasted 11 days until an Egyptian-brokered ceasefire came into effect at 2 a.m. on May 21.

At least 243 Palestinians were killed during the campaign, including more than 60 children. An estimated 70,000 Gaza residents were displaced. In Israel, 12 civilians, including two children and three foreign workers, were killed along with one soldier.

The latest escalation followed days of clashes around the Al-Aqsa mosque on Jerusalem’s Temple Mount. Palestinian anger was fueled by plans to expel residents from the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood in the capital to make way for Jewish families.

The rocket attack on Jerusalem was launched just minutes after the passing of a Hamas-issued ultimatum for Israel to withdraw security forces from both the Temple Mount and the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood, an ultimatum Hamas knew Israel would reject.

As in previous rounds, both sides were quick to claim victory once the fighting was over. And, similar to previous rounds, there was no question that the armed groups in Gaza paid a heavy price but remain intact, with their image enhanced not only in Gaza and the West Bank, but throughout much of the wider Arab world.

Victory parades were held at various locations in the Gaza Strip after the truce went into effect despite the heavy losses sustained during the 11 days of fighting and the scenes of toppled buildings.

“This is the euphoria of victory,” said Khalil al-Hayya, a senior Hamas figure, in front of thousands of Gaza residents who had gathered in the streets to celebrate.

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh hailed Hamas’s “victory”, saying it will have a wide impact on Israel’s relationship with the Arab world.

“We have destroyed the project of normalization with Israel,” he said.

Hamas officials claimed Israel had given assurances regarding its policy towards the Al Aqsa mosque and the Sheikh Jarrah neighbourhood but Israel strenuously denied any such promises.

Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh announced that the Palestinian Authority will lodge a complaint with the International Criminal Court at The Hague, claiming that Israel is responsible for war crimes, including the killing of entire families. 

The Israel Defense Forces said it destroyed more than 100 kilometers of tunnels in the Gaza Strip during the fighting and killed some 225 fighters, including 25 senior commanders.

According to the army, 3,400 rockets crossed into Israeli territory, 680 fell within Gaza and 280 landed in the sea. Around 90 percent of incoming projectiles heading for population centers were intercepted by the Iron Dome anti-missile defense system.

A senior Israeli general, Maj.-Gen. Aharon Haliva claimed the military had accomplished in 50 hours what it accomplished in 50 days in the 2014 Gaza war.

“My assessment is that Israel’s security reality vis-à-vis Hamas, vis-à-vis the Gaza Strip, radiating significantly outward to the entire Middle East, will be something entirely different,” he said, adding that five years of quiet would qualify as an achievement.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the Israeli attacks had set Hamas back years and Israel will no longer tolerate fire into Israeli territory. 

“The rules of the game were changed. We changed the equation not only as regards the operation, but also as regards the future,” he said. “If Hamas thinks we will tolerate a ‘drizzle’ of rockets, it is mistaken. We will respond with a whole new level of force. What was is not what will be.”

Defense Minister Benny Gantz praised the “unprecedented military achievements in terms of forcefulness, precision and strategic importance in the fight against terror groups in the Gaza Strip.”  He added that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and the head of Hamas’s military wing Muhammad Deif remained potential targets but Hamas warned that any targeted assassinations of its leaders will mean a resumption of hostilities. Gantz, who is also head of the centrist Blue and White, said the military stage is over and it is time for diplomacy.

“If we don’t act diplomatically, quickly and wisely, this operation will go down as simply another round of conflict to be followed by the next one.”

However, with no diplomatic initiative on the horizon, many believe that is exactly what will happen.

A survey the day before the truce was announced found that 73 percent of Israelis favored continuing the military campaign.

Many residents of Israel’s south, which bore the brunt of the rocket fire, expressed frustration that the campaign ended with Hamas still in control of Gaza.

Alon Davidi, the mayor of the border town of Sderot, which once again was heavily hit, accused the prime minister of preferring quiet over vanquishing Hamas.

“Netanyahu will be remembered as the prime minister who created two countries over the course of many years: The state of Israel and the state of the Gaza periphery communities and the south, whose residents’ blood is at Hamas’s mercy,” he said.

Despite the relentless Israeli bombardments, Hamas can claim a number of significant achievements from the 11-day conflict, in the short term at least: it surprised Israel with its rocket barrage on the Jerusalem area at the start of the fighting and managed to fire more than 4,300 projectiles at Israel; it hit Tel Aviv a number of times, temporarily closing Ben Gurion international airport; it put the question of Jerusalem center stage of the conflict; it asserted itself as the dominant group defending Palestinian interests; and it caused unprecedented communal Jewish-Arab clashes inside Israel.

Hamas succeeded in sidelining Mahmoud Abbas’s Palestinian Authority during the conflict and although there were a number of clashes in the West Bank during the campaign, and 10 fatalities in one day of fierce confrontations, the West Bank remained relatively quiet.

The same cannot be said for Israel itself which witnessed the worst Arab-Jewish communal clashes in decades.

Riots spread like wildfire across the Arab sector and particularly in mixed Jewish-Arab localities such as Lod, Jaffa, Ramle and Acre. Jews were attacked by Arab mobs and a Jewish driver in Lod was killed. A number of synagogues were torched in scenes reminiscent of the 1938 Kristallnacht in Nazi Germany. Gangs of Jews, including well-organized right-wing extremists, attacked Arabs and one brutal lynching in Bat Yam of an Arab driver, who suffered serious injuries ,was broadcast live on television.

It may take many years to repair the damage and recreate a semblance of coexistence in these communities.

Netanyahu agreed to end the fighting after US president Joe Biden made it clear his patience was running out. Washington had backed Israel diplomatically throughout the campaign, blocking a number of UN resolutions, but in a phone call on May 19, Biden told Netanyahu that he “expected a significant de-escalation today on the path to a ceasefire.” Following that call it was clear that Israel’s credit at the White House was limited and the campaign would have to be brought to an end in a couple of days at the most.

Speaking after the ceasefire went into effect, the US president reiterated his support for Israel but advocated a two-state solution.

“Let’s get something straight: until the region says unequivocally they acknowledge the right of Israel to exist as an independent Jewish state, there will be no peace. There is no shift in my commitment to the security of Israel. No shift. Period. What we still need is a two-state solution. It is the only answer,” he said.

There were also three incidents of rocket fire from south Lebanon into the Galilee during the Gaza campaign carried out by small Palestinian militias. Hezbollah refrained from opening another front but did allow protests on the border fence.

The Israeli leadership throughout the campaign had one eye on the north.

Hamas fired more than 4,300 projectiles at Israel but this pales into insignificance compared to the Hezbollah arsenal which is estimated at 130,000 rockets – more powerful, more accurate and with a longer range than those used by Hamas. Another war with Hezbollah is likely to be an entirely different story.

While the ceasefire brought relief to the residents of Israel’s south, the underlying problems remain.

A day before the conflict started, the Supreme Court delayed by 30 days a decision on whether to expel six Palestinian families from their homes in Sheikh Jarrah, in part because of the tensions the case has stirred. The clock is ticking and the danger remains that a decision to uphold the evictions will reignite tensions.