The Middle East, Israel, and its neighbors are in a wild new era where the IDF has forces newly stationed in three areas that Jerusalem does not make any claim to: Syria, Gaza, and Lebanon. In the West Bank, forces have been stationed for an extended period, with the IDF claiming a significant portion of that area.
What do these military positions mean for the future, and what options and pitfalls do they open up?
Syria: A spontaneous act by the IDF
Syria is the most unexpected and unpredictable of the three. There was never any plan to be in Syria because the Assad regime, which had an army, was expected to run the show indefinitely.
Israel’s move into Syria on December 7-8 was a spontaneous act done to cut off the possibility of a sudden invasion by newly empowered Syrian jihadists before they had time to organize the idea.
But a funny thing happened after that, which many originally thought would only last a few months. The Trump administration basically told Israel that it did not care if the IDF stays there, that the new Syrian government has taken longer than expected to sort out its affairs, and so the pressure on Jerusalem to leave was minimal compared to expectations.
In the post-October 7 era, why would Israel give away an extra security zone?
Saturday night’s events expressed why it is both useful and dangerous to have the buffer zone. On Saturday night, there was internal fighting between elements connected to the new regime and some Druze militias in a neighborhood near Damascus.
In response, Israel issued threatening statements indicating it could intervene on the side of the Druze.
The positive side is that Israel can project power to deter invaders and even military actions anywhere near its border. The negative side is that this conflict had nothing to do with Israeli security, and getting drawn into an internal Syrian conflict could create new dangers for Israel that never existed before.
Is Israel heading into an indefinite presence in Gaza?
In Gaza, Israel and Hamas agreed to a deal that would lead to a full IDF withdrawal from Gaza. But, with support from the Trump administration, Jerusalem is seeking to expel Hamas from Gaza before it carries out a full withdrawal.
That could mean that Israel would hold a 700-1,100 meter security perimeter in Gaza for a long time. This provides significantly more security to the Gaza border communities.
On the other hand, if Gazans start marching or protesting Israel’s presence in the enclave without firing on the IDF, any deaths that result from repelling such marching would be hard to defend before the International Criminal Court. Right now, only Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defense minister Yoav Gallant are in such potential trouble.
An indefinite presence in Gaza without some kind of UN recognition could expose rank-and-file soldiers to a travel ban in around 125 countries that are part of the ICC.
Also, while some Israelis want the war to resume, those who do not may see the security perimeter as a potential trap for restarting the war.
Lebanon border no longer Israel's most immediate threat
Though Hezbollah was the worst immediate threat for Israel prior to October 7, reality has flipped. Israel’s presence of “only” several hundred soldiers spread over five small positions a few hundred meters inside Lebanon would seem to be the least explosive presence among the three problem spots.
Hezbollah has more to lose from a renewed war with Israel than anyone and, unlike Hamas, has no hostages to pressure Israel to hold back. Also, the footprint of the five positions is tiny compared to the large areas the IDF has taken up in Syria and Gaza.
And yet, Hezbollah has defined its identity for decades as a resistance group. Since Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon in 2000, Hezbollah has struggled with framing a narrative for why it needs to fight Israel, given that the Jewish state was not holding any of its land.
Now, it may have a half-legitimate excuse of sorts, though obviously Israel’s argument is that after Hezbollah violated its obligation not to create a terror zone in southern Lebanon since 2006, it has a right to have an extra set of eyes and ears in the area to block any potential Hezbollah invasion.
Hezbollah now is extremely weak and is not even responding when the IDF assassinates some of its leaders who are trying to smuggle weapons into the country.
But in the future, the group’s confidence may grow again, and the five positions may be both a blessing (actually deterring an invasion) and a curse (serving as a new basis for war).