Iran’s regime struggles with fear of losing a generation to protests -analysis

How does Iran suggest putting the genie of protests back in the bottle?

 A man gestures during a protest over the death of Mahsa Amini, a woman who died after being arrested by the Islamic republic's "morality police", in Tehran, Iran September 19, 2022.  (photo credit: WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)
A man gestures during a protest over the death of Mahsa Amini, a woman who died after being arrested by the Islamic republic's "morality police", in Tehran, Iran September 19, 2022.
(photo credit: WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)

The ongoing attempts of Iran’s regime to suppress protests around the country show no sign of slowing down after two months. The protests began when Iranian police killed a Kurdish-Iranian woman named Jina Mahsa Amini, who they accused of not covering her hair in line with religious laws.

The protests initially started in the region where the young woman was from but spread countrywide. The regime has been careful not to massacre protesters because it is afraid the protests will grow out of control.

In a recent article, former Iranian minister of education Mohammad Bathai, who served in the second government of Hassan Rouhani until 2018, discussed some of the hurdles Iran now faces in confronting its own people.

The interview with the former official was published by Iran’s Tasnim News Agency. It was revealing in the sense that it shows a self-critique of the regime and reflects the Islamic Republic’s concerns that it is on the verge of alienating an entire generation.

For two months, young Iranians have been involved in protests. They have also seen that they can protest at schools, universities and in town squares across the country and realize that the regime cannot control everything. This is why videos that come out of the protests often show not just demonstrations, but also women not covering their hair in defiance of the theocratic, patriarchal far-right regime in Tehran.

So how does Iran suggest putting the genie of protests back in the bottle?

The education minister doesn’t have a lot of good answers, but his insights are worth pondering. “Teenagers born in the ’80s have many differences with their previous generations in terms of needs and even lifestyle,” he said.

Indeed, those born in the generation prior to the 1980s were involved in the Iranian Revolution of 1979. Those born in the ’80s, who are now in their 40s, have lived their whole life under theocracy and were never able to confront the regime. Some tried in 2009, but they were suppressed at the same time the US was prodding the West to work with Iran on a deal while also working with Russia to open discussions with the regime in Tehran.

In pursuit of the deal, which would empower the regime, the US and the West didn’t back the massive 2009 protests. In 2019, when protests broke out again, the regime massacred more than 1,000 people. Therefore, adults in their 40s have only bitter memories of failure.

Bathai said the current protests have had large numbers of teenagers on the streets.

“Their actions were observed, which were sometimes accompanied by violence,” he said.

The regime has monitored this phenomenon, and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is said to be concerned.

“These are our children, and we have no argument with them, because due to some emotions and feelings and some carelessness in issues, [they] entered the field [of protest],” Tasnim quoted Bathai as saying. “But the main stage directors who entered with plans and [strategies] are important.”

Thus, the supreme leader prefers to see a hidden hand behind the protests, which is always assumed to be foreign powers, “Zionists” or “separatist” groups. Therefore, Iran fired rockets and used drones against Kurdish opposition groups in northern Iraq in late September, and it has massacred Baloch protesters as well.

Did Iran's education system fail its younger generation?

IRANIAN OFFICIALS are trying to figure out the best way to deal with this generation of protests. “Some child and adolescent psychologists also consider teenagers’ protests or even their civil disobedience as a natural procedure that can be aimed at shaping the dimensions of their social, cultural and social identity,” the article said.

The point here is to attribute the protests merely to youthful rebelliousness.

But how do they distinguish between them and some youth who just want to be countercultural, like what happened across the West in the 1960s? After all, there are different types of mass protests.

The former minister of education has an answer. He thinks the education system – apparently the one he once oversaw – failed these youths.

“There are shortcomings in the education system, and we are reaping what we have sown,” Bathai said. “With the disorder in the education system, such incidents will occur.”

It was predictable, the Tasnim article concluded. That’s a kind of shocking conclusion for a pro-regime news agency to come to: basically admitting mass failure.

Bathai hinted at another culprit, without saying it directly: that the “disruptions” in school likely caused problems.

The disruption he referred to was the COVID-19 pandemic, which affected youths in Iran and elsewhere, basically depriving them of a year or more of education. Unlike the West, which has tended to try to downplay the long-term effects of the pandemic, Iranian officials are taking account of what may have been unintentionally released by their policies.

Is it possible that the pandemic had the long-term effect of leading Iranian youths to spend more time online or doing other things that led them to finally confront the system of control the regime has put in place?

The education expert has an answer. Youths and teens should channel their voices to “appropriate places,” and the policy-makers should listen to them, he said, adding that they should “have an impact on policy-making.”

According to Bathai, the government should try to deal with “underlying factors and education. Educational institutions should seriously consider their weaknesses. Neglecting the weaknesses we have in education can lead to the near future bringing similar events to the country.”

In short, if Iran doesn’t listen to this generation and fix its educational system, it could lose a generation, and the regime could be affected.

Is Iran's younger generation anti-religious?

THE REPORT also touched on a subject that the regime surely doesn’t know how to confront. What if this is an anti-religious generation?

“Our lifestyle is derived from the value system, which is a part of hijab, morals and Shari’a rules,” Bathai said.

Indeed, the regime’s obsession with covering women’s hair is what set off the protests. The regime thought for a long time that harassing, detaining, beating and even killing women was a logical way to enforce theocracy.

“A teenager or young person who is not familiar with the sweet effects of this lifestyle may say that this lifestyle, of which hijab is a part, is not efficient,” Bathai said. “When we hear this talk from teenagers, where should the positive effects of a lifestyle based on a value system be clearly explained to them? Part of this matter is related to the school and another part to the society.”

It may be a hurdle for educators to try to convince the youths that half of society has to cover their hair or face the threat of beatings by the police. Footage from the protests shows many young people like to walk without a headscarf. Once people have experienced the right to dress as they want, even for a short two months, it may be hard for them to ever forget that freedom.

“If we want to address the school, it should be in the form of a workshop so that the student can practice the lifestyle and components of the value system in the school and be able to believe in it,” Bathai said.

It’s not clear if workshops will solve the overall problem the regime now has on its hands, but the former official is at least considering that they have a mounting challenge on their hands.

“It is in no way acceptable that this generation is anti-religious,” he said. “Leaning towards religion is a natural thing, and all human beings have a positive feeling towards religion and religious teachings. But when the young generation and teenagers perform behaviors such as removing a scarf, it means it is not anti-religion, and they should not be considered anti-religion at all.”

“It is in no way acceptable that this generation is anti-religious, leaning towards religion is a natural thing and all human beings have a positive feeling towards religion and religious teachings, but when the young generation and teenagers perform behaviors such as removing a scarf, it means it is not anti-religion and they should not be considered anti-religion at all.”

Former Iranian Minister of Education, Mohammad Bathai

Bathai said the best way to confront this is apparently not with beating and killing people, but rather by showing the youth the “success and prosperity” of living a pious lifestyle.

As people protest, many wonder whether four decades of theocracy have brought them this success and prosperity that the regime officials think can be inculcated. One thing appears clear: The regime is afraid of losing this generation, and it is confused over what would be the best way to get it back and confront the ongoing protests.