The United States cannot move forward on a defense pact with Saudi Arabia unless the deal also includes a normalization agreement with Israel, US Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) told The Jerusalem Post.
“There will not be 67 votes in the United States Senate for a defense agreement between Saudi Arabia and the United States that doesn’t have an Israeli component,” he said in a telephone interview late Thursday. “That’s been true from day one and remains true.”
Graham has worked to promote a normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel from across the aisle, even though it would give a boost to US President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign. He has shuttled between Washington, Riyadh, and Jerusalem to push the matter forward.
The Israel part of the agreement has always been viewed as necessary to sway Republicans to support the deal. The approval of 67 out of 100 senators is needed because the defense pact between Washington and Riyadh is at the level of a treaty. Being that there are 48 Democratic senators, 49 Republicans, and three independents, the only way to move forward is with bipartisan support.
The US has hit an important goal post by finishing this important pillar of the deal, which is the defense pact, Graham said.
“Once that has been achieved, then we turn our attention to the Palestinian file and normalization,” he told the Post. “I don’t think Saudi Arabia is going to talk about the Palestinian issue or normalization until they lock down a deal with the United States. If I were them, I would not. I would want to make sure I got what I needed from the United States before I started that conversation.”
Palestinian pathway to statehood
The United States had been moving rapidly in the early fall on a triad deal with Saudi Arabia. It included a defense pact between Washington and Riyadh, a normalization deal with Israel and Saudi Arabia and an agreement that the Palestinians were on a pathway to statehood.
That work was scuttled by Hamas’s invasion of Israel on October 7, an act which the White House and many US politicians, including Graham blamed on Tehran.
“You got a situation where Iran control Hamas,” Graham point out.
“October 7, in part was designed to slow down the normalization process,” Graham stressed. “Iran’s overall ambitions are to keep the Middle East in turmoil and to stop this normalization,” he said.
“When you look at the future of Israel and the region the single best thing to happen to secure Israel's future, I think is to end the Arab-Israeli conflict, and normalize with Saudi Arabia,” Graham stated.
“That would be an earthquake in Mid East politics and a nightmare for Iran,” he stated.
This is why it is “hell bent on stopping” the integration of Israel into the region, he added.
Graham spoke with The Jerusalem Post as the US has said that it has mostly completed work on the defense pact with Saudi Arabia.
This fact has sparked speculation that the Biden administration would attempt to advance just the defense pact, leaving normalization and Palestinian statehood for a later time.
Graham said that such a plan was not feasible because the only way to receive enough votes in the Senate for the deal, is to move the entire package forward.
But he acknowledge that the insistence on passing the entire package at once, creates its own set of almost impossible challenges.
It has long been believed that the overall Saudi deal must be passed before the November elections and that the closer it gets to that date, the harder it will be for the Senate to move on it due to domestic political concerns.
“The time period to achieve this is not unlimited,” Graham explained.
Another complicating belief is Saudi Arabia’s insistence that a normalization deal can not be advanced until the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza ends.
“As long as there's intense military conflict, it's gonna be hard to negotiate this deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel. I think Saudi Arabia has made that clear,” Graham explained.
It’s also not possible for the deal to be successful if Hamas remains in power in Gaza, the Senator said as he voiced support for Israel’s goal of destroying the terror group, including backing Israel’s plans for a military operation in Rafah to eliminate its four remaining battalions there.
“Who would invest in Gaza if Hamas is still around,” Graham said.
“There will be no deal that will allow Hamas to remain standing. Israel has to make it clear to the world that the destruction of Hamas is non-negotiable,” he said.
The Biden administration has hoped that Hamas will accept a hostage deal to free some of the remaining 133 captives, that would pause the war, and allow for a window of opportunity by which to move forward on the other two parts of the deal.
It would be possible, Graham said, to include the reconstruction of Gaza under the auspices of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with the normalization deal.
Skepticism has been high that a deal with a pathway toward Palestinian statehood could be approved by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government which opposes such statehood.
Graham pointed to the Knesset declaration against unilateral Palestinian statehood that passed earlier this year with the support of 99 of the parliaments 120 members, as a sign that Israel is open to a negotiation process on Palestinian statehood.
“That Knesset resolution, reaffirmed the position of Israel, that if there's any agreement between the Palestinians and Israel on a state or anything else, it would have to come through direct negotiations without pre-conditions,” he said.
Graham clarified that Saudi Arabia was “not insisting on the unilateral declaration of a Palestinian state. That's not the Saudis position. They are insisting upon a pathway, an irrevocable pathway, to direct negotiations,” he said.
Graham stressed that this deal presents Israel with an historic opportunity.
“Israel's top priorities get the hostages back. But in terms of the long term security of the Jewish state, a Saudi Israel deal would be one of the biggest accomplishments since the founding of Israel.”