The world has been preoccupied for some time with the timing of the Iranian regime’s promised harsh response to the assassination, in the heart of Tehran, of Hamas head Ismail Haniyeh.
However, the Islamic Republic, not intending to follow through, is less concerned. Instead, it is indulging in its favorite hobby of heating regional tensions, pushing the world to the brink, and creating a time gap through which it can negotiate to achieve its strategic goals. These goals are, in Iran’s view, more important than avenging a Palestinian mercenary like Haniyeh or other mercenaries who have fallen victim to their embrace of Iran.
No expert truly believes that the US and Israel are seriously occupied with monitoring Iranian preparations for retaliation. All preparations are merely precautionary measures. The truth is well known among intelligence agencies, which satisfy Iranian vanity by exaggerating the regime’s strength and expressing fear and concern about their reaction – exactly what Tehran wants.
In my opinion, it is likely that all these behind-the-scenes and public communications and dialogues between Iran and leaders and officials from various regional and Western countries regarding de-escalation have provided the regime with a way to save face. These allow it to gradually back down from its threats of revenge and, instead, link this “retaliation” to the results of talks on a ceasefire in Gaza.
Iran has thus moved from separating its position on responding to the Haniyeh assassination from the situation in Gaza to directly linking the two issues. It has found a solution in this approach, through which it aims to achieve several strategic goals.
The most prominent of these aims is to find the justification to retreat, as usual, from its hollow threats against Israel. In this case, the Islamic Republic is claiming that it is prioritizing the interests of Palestinians and sparing their blood. The second, and more dangerous, goal is attempting to complete the hijacking of the Palestinian cause and exploit it for its own benefit, recognizing the imminent end of Hamas’s role – at least militarily.
The Iranian regime fully realizes that the military end of Hamas means the end of Iran’s role in discussing the Palestinian issue. Therefore, it is trying, by all means, to maintain this role through political bargaining, to preserve what remains of its investments in funding and arming Palestinian factions, not, as it claims, to preserve the Palestinian people. It seeks to emerge as one of the players in this central Middle Eastern issue and believes that, by desisting from responding to Haniyeh’s assassination if a ceasefire is achieved in Gaza, it saves face.
However, the revealing truth is that Iran is once again attempting to politically hijack the cause, usurp the roles of others, and claim that it holds the keys to resolving an issue in which it has only pushed for violence and bloodshed from the beginning.
Iran doesn't want peace
Iran has never once used its great influence and ability to create chaos in the service of pressuring for peace. The word “peace” has never been uttered by any of its leaders.
IT IS time for everyone in our region to wake up from the illusion of Iranian power and finally understand the extent of its game of manipulation. Iran’s only truth is that the fate of the regime is more important than the lives of mercenaries and terrorists such as Haniyeh, Nasrallah, Soleimani, and many others on the long list of useful regime tools that it manipulates day and night.
If Iran truly wanted a ceasefire in Gaza, it could have offered to stop its allies’ attacks in exchange for calming the situation and yet, throughout the nearly 10 months of war so far, it did nothing of the sort.
Now, it had decided to announce that it will not strike Israel if negotiations proceed toward a settlement (as if these negotiations were the first round and as if it had suddenly discovered that it holds an important card to create pressure on behalf of the Palestinians), while, just days ago, it was fanning the flames of war and inciting its proxies to escalate on all fronts.
Iran and Lebanon
AS USUAL, Iran prefers to sacrifice Lebanon and its people, inciting Hezbollah to continue the process of attrition against Israel with limited operations that fall short of a full-scale war. As usual, the regime is attempting to keep everyone occupied with its infantile games to buy time – and it knows exactly what it is doing. However, the Islamic Republic does not realize that everyone is aware of its ridiculous and faded paper tiger strength and that its talk and illusions of power no longer fool anyone in our region.
As for those still waiting for the Iranian response, they would do well to remember the incident of the killing of Iranian diplomats in Mazar-i-Sharif, Afghanistan, 25 years ago. The Afghan Taliban killed 10 diplomats inside the Iranian consulate on August 8, 1998. Many thought then that Iran would invade Afghanistan in response, after threatening to do so. But the reality is that to this day, Iran continues to condemn this incident and demand that the Afghan movement investigate it; while also making deals with the Taliban. This revealing incident is a model that embodies the Iranian regime’s pattern of thinking – and claiming otherwise is an illusion that resides only in the minds of its promoters.
We know well that, in politics, there are no permanent enemies or friends, only permanent interests. But it is imperative to stop the machine of falsehood and deception and practice real politics according to national interests, instead of these duplicitous games.
Meanwhile, the rules of the game in the Middle East remain unchanged, and the illusions of power, revolution, and resistance to the “Great Satan,” (the United States) promoted by the Iranian regime and others have no place in reality.
These facts must be dealt with in the search for realistic solutions to the crises and conflicts in our region – instead of waiting for answers that will never come, no matter how long we wait.
The writer is a UAE political analyst and former Federal National Council candidate.