As Israel navigates one of its most challenging periods, a quiet but potentially transformative shift is taking place within its ultra-Orthodox (haredi) community. Four developments have converged to create unprecedented pressure on a society that has historically remained successfully resistant to change.
The most immediate catalyst is the lapse of the “Torah is his faith” military service exemption, which previously allowed 90% of haredi men to avoid conscription. In response, we’re witnessing an extraordinary ideological alignment between the mainstream Litvak haredi leadership and their traditionally more radical counterparts.
The leading Degel Hatorah rabbis, who once accommodated the formal exemption process in the knowledge that it meant de facto military exemption, have now effectively adopted the hardline stance of the Jerusalem Faction.
This influence is spreading to the Sephardi haredi party Shas as well. Shas MK Yossi Taieb, who is chair of the Knesset Education Committee ,admitted on radio that “My son received his conscription papers. I’m not concerned – if he’s arrested, he will study Torah inside jail.” Ironic that Taieb himself served in the IDF’s Givati Infantry Brigade.
Although the mainstream parties may be adopting this stance as a negotiation tactic, it places them much closer to the anti-Zionist Eida Haredit position, instructing their followers to ignore draft notices altogether. This radicalization risks criminalizing thousands of haredi boys of army age, even though it is likely that no criminal sanctions will be applied.
Mounting financial pressures
SIMULTANEOUSLY, the community faces mounting financial pressures. A forensic investigation by businessman Yisrael Kroizer has exposed serious financial irregularities and huge deficits in the two major haredi school networks affiliated with United Torah Judaism and Shas. His findings, currently being scrutinized in the Israeli court system, challenge the government’s historical practice of covering these private institutions’ debts. The implications could force a fundamental restructuring of haredi education financing.
In addition to these institutional financial pressures the loss of the army exemption carries with it the near automatic loss of other financial benefits that individual Torah students and their families have benefited from, underpinning the economic model of full-time Torah learning instead of joining the workforce or the army.
Multiple economic benefits have accrued to yeshiva and kollel students. Some directly connected to the now defunct status of “exempt for IDF service due to Torah study,” as well as others generated by government criterion indirectly favoring haredi families. These include the potential loss of day-care subsidies, the loss of city tax discounts, access to cheap housing for first time buyers and the loss of scholarships available to haredim attending colleges and universities.
Perhaps most striking is the accelerating shift in educational choices. After a decade of minimal growth, enrollment in haredi state elementary schools has doubled from 4% to 8% in just the past year. This surge includes the remarkable decision by Belz, Israel’s second-largest hassidic court, to integrate with the state system. For a community that views educational independence as sacrosanct, this represents a seismic shift in thinking.
THE CONVERGENCE of these pressures creates a uniquely challenging situation for young haredi men and their families. Without the military service exemption, they face a stark choice: defy their religious leadership by accepting conscription or risk the practical consequences of being classified as deserters. These consequences are not trivial – they include restrictions on obtaining driving licenses, international travel, and the loss of economic benefits previously available to Torah students. I don’t expect a rush to the recruiting offices of the IDF, but pressure to enter deferred conscription tracks combining Torah learning and army service, similar to their religious Zionist brothers, will rise.
Nevertheless, history counsels caution in predicting dramatic changes within haredi society. The community has demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of previous challenges, including the Mount Meron disaster, COVID-19, and the judicial reform controversy. Resistance to change isn’t merely a tactical position but a fundamental philosophical principle woven into the fabric of their identity.
As key coalition partners, the haredi ones might have been expected to resolve these issues, but increased social tensions, first during the period of the judicial reform and then the 15 months of war, have raised the political bar beyond their ability to carry the coalition with them.
DR. GILAD MALACH has researched relations between the haredim and the state for over a decade. Explaining the change in the political vibe he told me: “The concept of Hesderiyut (arrangement/accommodation policy) in the context of haredi integration was based on an unwritten understanding that the state would build frameworks adapted to their lifestyle, and in return, they would integrate into the military, higher education, and employment. In practice, haredim have barely integrated into the military at all, and haredi male employment rates have remained at the same level for about a decade.
“Because of this, more and more people believe that the accommodation policy has failed,” Malach said. “The security and economic needs, along with the lack of haredi participation in the military – even in emergency situations like the recent war – lead us to think that in addition to positive incentives, strong economic pressure is also needed, otherwise Israel’s economic and security profile will be weakened.”
The current confluence of pressures feels different. No new legislation is required to maintain these pressures – they will persist unless the government actively intervenes to restore the status quo. In the current social and political climate, such intervention seems increasingly unlikely. Any new military service law would likely need to include personal sanctions against draft dodgers – a previously unthinkable proposition for the haredi community.
The financial challenges facing haredi educational institutions may prove even more consequential. Kroizer’s investigation has exposed issues that can’t easily be dismissed, making it politically difficult to justify continued unconditional government support. The Finance Ministry faces an uphill battle in the courts to maintain the existing funding model.
While it’s impossible to predict the exact trajectory of change, the alignment of political, economic, security, and social factors in 2025 presents an unprecedented challenge to the traditional haredi way of life. The community’s legendary ability to resist external pressures will be tested as never before.
The question isn’t whether change will come – it’s already happening at the margins – but rather how deep it will penetrate into the core of haredi society. I have always believed in the importance of consensual social change, but the situation is driving the public to a harsher stance. The outcome will have profound implications not just for the ultra-Orthodox community, but for the future of Israeli society as a whole.
The writer, a founding partner of Goldrock Capital, is the founder of The Institute for Jewish and Zionist Research. He is a former chairman of Gesher, World Bnei Akiva, and the Coalition for Haredi Employment.