On January 16, The Jerusalem Post reported that following the brokerage efforts of Egypt, Qatar, and the US, Israel and Hamas had agreed to a three-stage deal to release the 98 remaining hostages and slowly phase out the IDF’s activity in Gaza.
Phase one of the deal entailed the release of 33 Israeli hostages, which included all women, children, and men over 50, and special humanitarian cases. In exchange, Israel was to release about 2,000 convicted terrorists, which included about 250 sentenced to life, along with about 1,000 terrorists captured after October 7. The IDF was to reduce its presence in areas in Gaza, including the Philadelphi Corridor.
“Negotiations on implementing the second phase will begin by the 16th day of phase one, and it is expected to include the release of all remaining hostages, a permanent ceasefire, and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza,” the Post wrote on the front page.
Phase one began in mid-January, a day before the inauguration of US President Donald Trump, and successfully saw those 33 Israeli hostages, as well as five Thai hostages, released by Hamas. It was a weekly roller coaster of emotions as the frail, emaciated hostages emerged from captivity, paraded by Hamas in a humiliating manner, returned to incredibly emotional homecomings with their families, and the entire nation glued to their screens.
And then, on March 1, it stopped. Phase one was over, and there was no phase two in sight.
In essence, there haven’t been any negotiations over phase two
The date for the negotiations to begin in mid-February came and went. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, and he appointed confidant and Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer to lead the Israeli negotiating team.
But in essence, there haven’t been any negotiations over phase two. There have been alternative plans bandied about, such as the Witkoff plan of mid-March of extending phase one by several weeks in exchange for Hamas releasing five living and 10 dead hostages. When that failed, an alleged Hamas offer to release five hostages was rebuffed by Israel, which is insisting on 10.
Meanwhile, the ceasefire that began with phase one continued, with Hamas no longer releasing any hostages. As my colleague Seth Frantzman wrote last month, Hamas was getting a free pass for Ramadan.
Israel’s answer to that was to return to the military offensive against Hamas in Gaza, which after a week seems to be ramping up. That move, evidently made in coordination with the Trump administration, is supposed to exert maximum pressure on Hamas to give in and release more hostages.
But as we know from the fighting that took place throughout 2024 without any movement on hostage releases, that strategy may not be so efficient. Furthermore, as many released hostages and families of captive hostages have stated, the renewed warfare endangers the remaining hostages’ lives.
SO, AS we return to a period of fighting instead of talking, the question emerges: What happened to phase two?
Phase two, which on the surface would bring back all the remaining hostages – both alive and dead – seems to have simply withered away and died. But did it ever have life?
It’s hard to believe that Netanyahu and his coalition ever entertained “a permanent ceasefire and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.” That would mean not only the survival of Hamas but its continued rule of Gaza, something that butts up against Netanyahu’s “total victory” mantra and his coalition partners’ dreams of retaking Gaza for good, along the lines of Trump’s vision.
Not to mention, the acceptance of phase two would force those partners to leave the coalition and thus topple the government.
Leaders of the opposition – opposition head Yair Lapid, National Unity leader Benny Gantz, Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Liberman, and The Democrats leader Yair Golan – urged Netanyahu to accept phase two in February and offered to back him from the outside.
“We call to shorten the wait for their return and to seek a one-time release and vow to allow political and public backing for this move,” they said.
Liberman, especially, stated that there was no reason not to withdraw from Gaza in exchange for the rest of the hostages, adding that whatever agreement is made, Hamas will eventually infringe on it and thus enable Israel to finally remove the terror organization from power militarily, without being restrained by the hostage factor.
There were indications, from Arab media reports, that Hamas was willing to move on to phase two; but, of course, based on all the infractions, posturing, and delays it implemented during phase one, there were certainly no guarantees that the terror organization would stand by the terms.
The dilemma is: Is it better to save as many hostages as possible and agree to the terms of phase two, or attempt to strong-arm Hamas into concessions as the government has decided to do?
We’ve seen – in the Hamas propaganda videos and from testimony by released hostages – that time is running out. The hostages are in dire condition, and who knows how much longer they can survive under the cruel Hamas conditions?
A prolonged military offensive now is not the way to secure their release – we saw that last year.
We know that Hamas will never release all of the hostages in a deal – they’re insurance. But we can get many more out through the renewal of a ceasefire that leads to the implementation of phase two.
It’s time to forget about total victory and about political considerations. Deal with the devil and bring home whoever we can – now.