An asteroid approximately the size of 289 small Squishmallows plushies has a very small chance of impacting the Earth in 2032, the European Space Agency (ESA) announced on Wednesday.
The asteroid, named 2024 YR4, is estimated by the ESA to be between 40 and 100 meters wide, but estimates provided by NASA's Eyes on Asteroids tool give it a more specific diameter of 57.75 meters.
It is too early to determine where on Earth a potential impact could occur, and while the ESA has estimated a 99% chance of safe passage on December 22, 2032, a potential impact cannot be ruled out entirely yet.
2024 YR4, which was discovered on December 27, 2024, at the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Río Hurtado, Chile, quickly rose to the top of the ESA’s asteroid risk list due to the fact that an asteroid of its size has the potential to cause severe damage to a local region.
To make this a bit easier to understand, picture a plushie your friend or child may have dozens of: The Squishmallow.
You’ve seen it in every toy store, book store, or even the grocery store. The relatively small Squishmallow is about 8 inches tall, meaning this asteroid’s size can range anywhere from 200 to 500 adorably overpriced plushies hurtling through space.
The ultimate squish?
Now, while that may sound like the universe is sending a massive cuddly hug our way, an asteroid this size impacts Earth on average every few thousand years, and astronomers have been observing it since early January, using new data to better understand its size and trajectory.
As of Wednesday, the ESA has estimated that there is only a 1.2% chance of impact when 2024 YR4 meets its closest point to Earth at the end of 2032, which is consistent with tests conducted by NASA.
While 2024 YR4 is currently rated at a Level 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale (a close encounter that warrants attention from astronomers and the public), it is important to remember that most asteroids’ impact probability drops to zero after prolonged observations.
According to Purdue University’s Impact Earth simulator, even at its largest, 2024 YR4 would not strongly disturb the Earth and likely wouldn’t be felt far outside the impacted region.
Plush protectant
However, The Planetary Society, led by CEO Bill Nye (yes, the science guy), explained that there are a variety of different techniques for deflecting incoming asteroids from Earth, including using a large spacecraft's gravity to pull the asteroid off course or even using nuclear detonations.
Currently, the asteroid is moving away from Earth and will begin to fade out of view in the coming months.
According to the ESA’s estimates, it will be difficult to rule out impact once the asteroid disappears, and 2024 YR4 will remain on the risk list until it becomes visible again in 2028.