In US politics, an “October surprise” is an event that may influence the outcome of an upcoming November election (particularly for the presidency), whether it was deliberately planned or occurred spontaneously. The current escalation in the Middle East is quite likely to become the October surprise of the 2024 elections as the Biden-Harris administration faces the critical dilemma of whether the United States should join Israel in retaliating against Iran in the wake of its massive attack on Israel on October 1, and if so, in what manner.
There is no question that Israel is going to retaliate, with US participation or without it. A decision by the US to contain the Iranian attack or retaliate through a minor operation that will not cause any serious damage would be aligned with the Biden-Harris policy of avoiding an all-out war in the Middle East, a scenario which has been of great concern to them since Hamas attacked Israel a year ago. However, if they do nothing (or very little), they may risk losing the upcoming November elections.
Refraining from taking on a role in punishing Iran will play right into the hands of former president Donald Trump – who for years has been accusing Joe Biden of being a weak president who brought US deterrence to an all-time low, and would have the ultimate proof that he was right all along. On the other hand, were President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris to revert to the “big stick” policy of president Theodore Roosevelt, join Israel, and deliver a truly painful blow to the Iranians, this could be the ace card that would win the elections for Harris.
Since assassinating Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps in 2020, the US has done very little to maintain its deterrence in the region. As expected, various local powers have viewed this as a weakness and flexed their muscles in a series of increasingly daring attacks.
Shia militias in Iraq launched dozens of rocket attacks against US bases in Iraq and Syria, the Houthi regime in Yemen attacked numerous commercial and military vessels affiliated with the US and its allies in the Red Sea, and Iranian naval boats dared to challenge US ships in the Persian Gulf.
US could tarnish its reputation
Iran’s audacity reached a peak when it decided to ignore President Biden’s “Don’t” message and launched a direct attack against Israel on April 14. Since then, the Biden administration warned Iran on several occasions not to repeat such an attack and deployed some aircraft carriers and other military assets in the area to demonstrate the seriousness of its intentions. However, the Islamic Republic was not deterred and launched an unprecedented barrage of ballistic missiles at Israel on October 1.
Failing to retaliate against this brazen Iranian move will tarnish the image of the US in the area for years to come, turning it into a “paper tiger” that can’t be trusted to protect its own position, let alone look after its allies.The current situation is not where President Biden was hoping to be at this time of the year. But he and Vice President Harris now have a golden opportunity to turn this lemon into lemonade by taking a bold decision that will not only bolster the US position in the Middle East but also pave the road to the White House for Harris.
Lack of leadership at this crucial moment will make both of them a pale episode in US history.
The writer is a professor and former executive vice president of the Technion – Israel Institute of Technology. An expert in management science, he serves as a board member and as a consultant to various companies and organizations.