New York Congresswoman Elise Stefanik’s political career in Washington has seen her go from a bipartisan lawmaker representing a mostly rural upstate district to a MAGA star soaring in President Donald Trump’s orbit.
That luster appeared to fade a bit last month when her nomination as Trump’s United Nations ambassador was abruptly withdrawn. Yet Stefanik may be on a new trajectory - with allies confirming Wednesday that she’s thinking about running for governor in her home state.
As of late Wednesday, Stefanik, 40, and her campaign were not saying whether she’d enter the 2026 race, or that she’s even considering trying to unseat Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul, who has said she’d seek a second term.
Yet Stefanik was providing no shortage of sharp opinions about Hochul, including in a statement released Wednesday regarding a new poll by the Marist Institute for Public Opinion in Poughkeepsie showing Hochul’s approval rating among New Yorkers stuck at 39%.
“Hochul is the Worst Governor in America and it’s not even close,” she said. “This polling shows that we can WIN & SAVE NEW YORK.”
At a New York State Republican dinner on Tuesday, where she was a featured speaker, Stefanik declared: “It is time to save New York.”
David Laska, a spokesman for the New York state GOP, called her “a Republican superstar who would make a phenomenal candidate for governor.”
And Trump himself posted on Truth Social earlier Wednesday that “Congresswoman Elise Stefanik is GREAT!!!”
Hochul, asked at a public event about Stefanik as a potential opponent, said that farmers and others in her North Country district have been telling her that nobody is standing up for them on tariffs, and that there is diminished cross-border trade with Canada “killing small communities.”
Democrats point out that other prominent Republicans have been mulling a potential bid, including Representative Mike Lawler, who represents a suburban district north of New York City.
Lawler, 38, tends to be more moderate and isn’t considered a close Trump ally, which could be a benefit in a statewide primary and possibly attract independent voters and even Democrats in a general election. Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman also has been floated as a potential Republican gubernatorial candidate.
Despite Hochul’s poll disadvantage, New York has long presented a formidable challenge for GOP candidates seeking statewide office, even though Trump won more votes there last November than in his previous presidential campaigns. George Pataki, whose third term ended in 2007, was the most recent Republican governor. Before him, the last Republican elected to the office was Nelson Rockefeller, who left Albany in 1973. Rockefeller and to a lesser extent Pataki were much more liberal than Republicans of today.
In any case, it’s uncertain if a gubernatorial candidacy was in Stefanik’s thoughts before the sudden White House announcement last month that her UN ambassador nomination had been scrapped to protect the slim GOP majority in the House. Trump and Republicans are seeking to push through a huge conservative policy overhaul and tax package, and did not want to risk her seat flipping to Democrats in a special election.
In a limbo
That news seemed to relegate Stefanik into a sort of limbo, resigned to stay in the House, where Speaker Mike Johnson gave her a consolation prize-like leadership title for being a team player.
But Stefanik, a Harvard graduate, has shown a deft ability at political pivots since winning her first race as a 30-year-old in 2014, at the time the youngest woman elected to Congress.
During the 2016 presidential campaign and Trump’s early years in office, Stefanik criticized his plans to build a wall at the southern border wall as well as his rhetoric on women and Muslims. She also voted against the president’s 2017 tax-cut legislation and joined a bipartisan chorus calling on him to release his tax returns.
But by 2019, she had made a very public sharp rightward turn to become what she later called “ultra-MAGA” during Trump’s first impeachment hearings. Her ringing defense delighted Trump, earning her appearances on Fox News and plaudits in Trump-friendly media.
By the spring 2021, Stefanik, with Trump’s blessing and former Representative Liz Cheney’s ouster from the post, had risen to become House Republican Conference chair — the No. 3 elected party leader in the chamber.
Her close ties to Trump led to speculation last year that she might be his vice presidential running mate. Earlier in the year, she had drawn national headlines for her attacks against the richest colleges over accusations that they’d done too little to combat antisemitism.
Stefanik raised $15.4 million in 2024, about triple the average for an incumbent House member, according to OpenSecrets. Among her biggest sources of funds were the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which directs its supporters to donate to pro-Israel candidates, and conservative groups. She was the top House recipient of donations from anti-abortion groups and ranked second in donations from backers of gun rights.
Hochul, however, is also a strong fundraiser, with $15.5 million cash on hand in her campaign account as of the last six-month filing period in January.
“Hochul’s numbers are low and Stefanik has lost her clout in DC at least for now,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist polling institute. “Maybe there will be a reward for her down the road from Trump, but in the short run considering governor makes sense.”
“On the downside,” he added, “she could face opposition within the GOP for the nomination, it’s a very blue state and it will be an off year for the GOP, which might be troublesome for Trump’s party and someone who is identified with him.”