Assuming that this next wave of COVID-19 in Israel includes only a minor to moderate increase in serious cases, the Israeli government is faced with two choices: leave the economy open and accept a certain death toll from the virus or work to eradicate it altogether, according to Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science.
"This is a policy decision, and therefore a decision that only a government can take," he said.
Prof. Segal has been tracking coronavirus since its onset and consults with the country’s coronavirus cabinet.This is a policy decision, and therefore a decision that only a government can takeOf course, if the number of severe cases returns to what it was at its peak (unlikely in my opinion, see above) then there is no question and we will have to bring back major restrictions
— Eran Segal (@segal_eran) June 25, 2021
On Friday, he laid out what he believes to be the situation in Israel through a series of tweets, in which he said that Pfizer’s vaccine is effective against preventing serious illness from the Delta variant - and that in Israel, which leads the world in the percentage of its population to be fully vaccinated, there has still not been an increase in serious cases.
The Health Ministry reported 227 new cases on Friday. There were 26 people in serious condition.
“Delta has been in Israel for two months and has not immediately led to a surge, so the recent increase may still be due to a number of ‘superspreading’ events that will not lead to an uncontrolled surge,” Segal tweeted. “We still don't know.”Why many severe cases are unlikely:1. Pfizer's vaccine is as effective on Delta as on the existing strain in preventing serious illness (https://t.co/Bw1YxGSNYd), Israel leads the world in % fully vaxed (>90% in people 50+ y/o). And evidently, still no rise yet in severe cases pic.twitter.com/zyttngaoIA
— Eran Segal (@segal_eran) June 25, 2021
As such, he recommended four steps that he believed the government should take to help reduce the number of daily cases:
1 - Vaccinate as many kids as possible between the ages of 12 and 16 years old.
He said that before Delta, Israel reached or neared herd immunity at around 60% vaccination. Now, with the Delta variant, herd immunity may require that more people get the jab.
“It is therefore possible that vaccinating kids 12-16 y/o will put Israel back at the threshold of herd immunity, if Delta indeed took us out of it,” Segal wrote.
2 - Return to wearing masks in closed and crowded spaces.
The Health Ministry on Friday reinstituted this mandate in hopes of bringing infection down.
3 - Enforce isolation of verified cases better.
“We are not good at this,” Segal admitted.
4 - Improve ventilation in schools and closed places.
The school year is set to close at the end of the month, but most students are continuing on for several weeks to make up for some school days lost during the pandemic.
There were 332 students infected with coronavirus as of Thursday, the Education Ministry reported, as well as 32 teachers.