Israel-Hamas War: What happened on day 111?

A new party of IDF reservists who served in the Gaza Strip would receive 10 seats if led by former communications minister Yoaz Hendel, a poll conducted for The Jerusalem Post found this week.

The poll also found that a reservists’ party headed by other candidates with a military background would garner strong support. Hendel is not in the Knesset and does not officially belong to any political party.

According to the poll, a reservists’ party headed by Diaspora Affairs and Combating Antisemitism Minister Amichai Chikli (Likud) would win eight seats. Chikli served as a reserve soldier briefly at the beginning of the war.

The results of the poll

A reservists’ party headed by former deputy economy minister Yair Golan (Meretz) would gain five seats, according to the poll.

A party by the leaders of the Brothers in Arms movement would receive nine seats. The Brothers in Arms movement was established during the judicial reform process and later mobilized many of its supporters to assist in the aftermath of the October 7 massacre.

If elections were held today who would you vote for? (credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM/THE JERUSALEM POST)

The poll also found that if the reservists’ party is headed by Hendel or Chikli, the Religious Zionist Party led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich would not pass the electoral threshold. If the reservists’ party is led by Brothers in Arms, the Meretz Party would be impacted. But if Golan heads the new party, his five seats would enable Meretz and his party to pass the threshold.

The poll indicates the power of reservists currently serving in the Gaza Strip, and that if they vote as a bloc, they could sway the outcome of a future election.

If the elections were held today who would you vote for? (credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM/THE JERUSALEM POST)

In all of the different scenarios that the poll checked, National Unity Party voters comprise the main electorate of the new Reservists’ Party, and three or four of its seats would move to the Reservists’ Party.

Another primary source of voters for the new party would be undecided voters or those unwilling to vote for any current party.

Taking the right-winged approach in the war 

The past few weeks have already seen several initiatives by recently released reservists to impact Israel’s political map. Most of them are calling for a decisive, right-wing approach to winning the war and replacing Israel’s current leadership.

The poll by Dr. Menachem Lazar found that a new reservists’ party headed by right-wing Hendel or Chikli would bring Netanyahu’s coalition to an all-time low of 40 seats.

The poll also examined who the public is most interested in seeing lead the rehabilitation of Israel after the war.

Benny Gantz had 53% support, followed by Gadi Eisenkot (50%), Naftali Bennett (46%), and Yossi Cohen (45%).

Other possible candidates, in order of support, were Chili Tropper, Nir Barkat, Yoaz Hendel, Yair Lapid, Benjamin Netanyahu, Itamar Ben-Gvir, Yair Golan, and Bezalel Smotrich.

Yossi Cohen had the smallest difference in bipartisan support between voters on the Right and Center-Left, at 3%. The candidates with the most significant difference were Netanyahu (50% difference), Ben-Gvir (49%), and Lapid (47%).

The poll was conducted in light of the vacuum felt by a drop in support for the Likud and the significant change occurring among the hundreds of thousands of reservists who enlisted to fight in Operation Swords of Iron.

The survey took place on January 24-25, with 513 participants. The respondents were a representative sample of the adult population, including both Jewish and Arab citizens aged 18 and above.

The margin of error was 4.3%, the pollsters said. 

The public spat between Jerusalem and Doha has not prevented US Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns from heading to Europe to hold talks with Israeli, Egyptian, and Qatari officials in the coming days.

Both Reuters and The Washington Post reported on Burn’s meeting as Israel’s war cabinet met on Thursday night to discuss the hostages as Qatar and the relatives of the hostages accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of harming the possibility of a potential deal.

Israel has proposed a two-month pause in fighting to allow for the phased release of the 136 hostages still being held following the Hamas-led October 7 attack, The Washington Post said.

Biden administration working on new hostage deal

Burns "has been...involved in helping us with the hostage deal that was in place and trying to help us pursue another one," White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters traveling with US President Joe Biden aboard Air Force One, referring specific questions to the agency.

“The discussions we are having about trying to get a renewed hostage deal are sober and serious,” Kirby said, recalling that US special envoy Brett McGurk was in the region to try and push forward a deal.

The Israeli people want their “loved ones back,” and the US wants its hostages back home, Kirby said, explaining that “there is a lot of energy being put into this across the region with our Israeli counterparts as well as other counterparts including the Qataris.”

Israelis gather in Tel Aviv for the release of Gaza hostages on November 25, 2023 (credit: AVSHALOM SASSONI/MAARIV)

The CIA, which has a policy of not disclosing the director's travel, declined to comment on the meeting in Europe next week.

US President Joe Biden dispatched Burns to speak with officials, including Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, comes as Israel's retaliatory military campaign against Hamas continues into its fourth month.

Netanyahu 'stoking tensions' with Qatar

The families' campaign to free the hostages accused Netanyahu or his associates on Thursday of intentionally stoking tensions with Qatar by leaking a tape in which Netanyahu insulted Doha’s efforts to negotiate a deal.

"All conversations that take place in meetings with the Prime Minister are recorded by his office and his associates present at the meeting,” the campaign’s spokesperson Haim Rubinstein said.

“The families participating in the meeting had their phones taken at the entrance,” Rubinstein explained.

“The decision whether to leak information concerning the deal and its intermediaries is the Prime Minister's office,” Rubinstein stated.

He spoke in response to a story on Channel 12, which featured a leaked recording from the closed-door meeting held with the family earlier this week in which Netanyahu could be heard referring to Qatar as a “problematic mediator.”

Rubinstein said that “the fact that the censorship permitted publication of the [tape] is serious and indicates a loss of judgment. The cabinet's duty is to prevent a crisis that would endanger the lives of the captives.”

The decision not to censor the publication of the tape and thus “endanger the lives of the hostages” after they were already abandoned on October 7 is a crime!” he said.

“We demand that the members of the cabinet stop the madness and act responsibly to save the lives of 136 Israelis who were abandoned and kidnapped,” he stated.

Rubinstein charged that “an organized campaign is underway against them with one goal: to delegitimize the hostages who are in the hands of the monsters of Hamas!"

He spoke up after Qatar called Netanyahu’s comments “irresponsible” and said they were harming efforts to mediate a deal to release the captives.

The Prime Minister’s Office said it did “not record, approve or distribute the recordings, and any other claim is false.”

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich publicly backed Netanyahu by attacking Qatar in a post on X, in which he charged that it was a “country that supports terrorism and finances terrorism.”

Qatar “is Hamas’ patron and is largely responsible for the massacre committed by Hamas of Israeli citizens.

“The West's attitude towards it is hypocritical and based on improper economic interests. The West can and should exert much stronger levers on her and bring about the release of the abductees immediately,” he said.

“One thing is clear,” Smotrich said, “Qatar will not be involved in what happened in Gaza the day after the war.”

He expanded on those comments at a conference by the non-governmental group the Bitchonistim.

Qatar is playing a double game with the West because it encourages, assists, and finances terrorism, Smotrich stated.

“Today, Qatar is the element that is the most delaying the return of the Israeli captives,” Smotrich said. “We could receive the 136 Israeli captives tomorrow morning If Qatar issues an unequivocal ultimatum to Hamas,” he added.

“Qatar has a clear interest in preserving Hamas, ensuring its survival and continued governance in Gaza,” and as such, it has done everything to thwart Israel’s efforts to destroy the terror group, Smotrich stated.

The hostages are a bargaining chip to help Hamas remain in power in Gaza, he said, and the terror group will not relinquish them so easily, he said.

Israel must cut its ties to Qatar, Smotrich stated. It's time to tell the hostages that not all the hostages can be freed, he said. It's a mistake to think that Hamas leader Yehyeh Sinwar "will give up such a valuable asset (the hostage)" because by holding on to them, he weakens Israeli society and tears it apart, Smotrich said..

US State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Petal said that Qatar remains a key US ally.

The animosity between Israel and Qatar, which do not have diplomatic relations, comes amid increased tensions between Israel and its Middle East ally Egypt, with whom it has had formal relations since 1979.

At issue in particular has been Israel’s insistence that to prevent arms smuggling into Gaza, it must control a buffer zone in the enclave by the Egyptian border, known as the Philadelphi corridor.

Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on Wednesday accused Israel of holding up aid deliveries for the Gaza Strip as a pressure tactic to push Hamas to free the hostages.

"This is a form of pressure on the Gaza Strip and its people over the conflict and the release of hostages. They are using this as a pressure tool on the people of the Strip,” Sisi said in comments to mark Egypt's national police day.

Israel denied the charge. "Our inspection process is efficient, with us scaling up our capacities to maximize inspection capabilities," COGAT, an Israeli Defence Ministry agency that coordinates aid deliveries with the United Nations and humanitarian groups, said on social media platform X on Wednesday.

"There is no limit to the amount of aid that can enter Gaza.”

Earlier this week, government spokesperson Eylon Levy said that trucks entering Gaza had the capacity to carry more than what the international community had sent for Gaza.

"Hamas is collapsing within its own tunnels," Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said to soldiers of the Yahalom unit of the Combat Engineering Corps in a visit to the unit training base on Thursday, according to the Defense Ministry Spokesperson's Unit.

The defense minister debriefed with Chief Engineering Officer Lt. Col. Yoav Turkansky and the commander of the unit, Lt. Col. A., on the unit's activities in the war to locate and destroy terrorist infrastructure in the Gaza Strip.

 After the debrief, Gallant expressed his appreciation to the soldiers in active duty and reserve units for their efforts in the ongoing war.

"There is no place I go in Gaza - the central camps, Khan Yunis, wherever I go, I meet the fighters - and they don't talk to me about Yahalom," he told the soldiers. "The commanders of the battalions, brigades, and divisions, and this is due to your presence everywhere and at the forefront of the operation. "

Gallant says price of the war is heavy, but results speak for themselves

"Unfortunately, this operation has costs, and the unit is paid a heavy price," he continued. "On the other hand, the results are clearly seen - Hamas dug tunnels to use them against us with all kinds of methods - but in reality, Hamas is collapsing into its own tunnels that it dug with great effort. Every place they thought would be a trap for IDF soldiers became an area where we defeated them in various ways."

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant addresses soldiers in the elite Yahalom unit of the Combat Engineers Brigade, January 25, 2024/ (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON'S UNIT)

He then addressed the IDF's success in eliminating droves of terrorists in Khan Yunis over the past day.

"Hamas has suffered hundreds of casualties underground as a result of your and your friends' operations. And besides, we've only been in the last day and a half, yet we have over 100 terrorists who have come up, some of them underground, in the Khan Yunis area and in other places - because they understand that they can't fight against the IDF. It's thanks to you and your friends."

"This is an expression of the need for our systematic and strategic operations," he stated, lamenting October 7 and reaffirming the IDF's mission. "We have not forgotten what happened on the seventh of October; whoever killed our children, raped our women, and kidnapped our elders, we will take their heads."

"We will not be able to strike everyone in Hamas, but we will reach a point where we dismantle this organization; it will not control Gaza, and it will not have military force," he assured them.

"Persevere, do your work, and we will bring the result. There is a lot of appreciation for what you are doing throughout the State of Israel, in the public, and certainly in the security establishment and the IDF. Thank you very much, friends; I wish you all much success," he concluded his statement. 

Top US and Israeli defense officials met in Washington DC on Thursday to move forward a variety of defense deals between the countries, the Defense Ministry announced.

In September, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant submitted an official Letter of Request (LOR) to the US and to Lockheed Martin for the purchase of a third squadron of 25 F-35 aircraft, which will eventually bring Israel’s total complement to 75 aircraft.

On Thursday, Channel 12 reported, and the Jerusalem Post confirmed, that the next step in the deal, the US's Letter of Acceptance, had been issued.

The aircraft are still not expected before 2026-2027, but moving that deal and others, including the F-15 EX fighters, Apache helicopters, and a variety of weapons and munitions, is important to the ministry at this point in the war, when there are pressures on the US-Israeli alliance.

There are three main ways that the International Court of Justice can come out tomorrow: A big win for Hamas and South Africa, a big win for Israel, or somewhere in the middle.

All of this is keeping in mind that there is no chance that the ICJ will declare tomorrow that Israel has committed genocide. If it came to that conclusion, and most observers find that unlikely, it would be 18 to 36 months away after extensive proceedings and evidence from both sides.

So the big loss for Israel would not be that, but rather an ICJ interim order to cease the war and withdraw all Israeli security forces from Gaza pending the later decision in 18-36 months.

How could the ICJ come to this conclusion when there is no possible way to reasonably read the Genocide Convention as applying to the IDF’s conduct?

How will the ICJ reach its verdict on Israel's war in Gaza?

First of all, the ICJ is a highly political body.

Lebanon, Somalia, Morocco, Brazil, China, and Russia are expected to vote against Israel due to their government’s positions against Israel during the current war.

PEOPLE LISTEN to the proceedings inside the ICJ yesterday, in The Hague. (credit: THILO SCHMUELGEN/REUTERS)

There are some interesting, complex scenarios where China or Russia might not vote against Israel in order to achieve some other self-interest for themselves in confronting genocide charges (though in their cases, most Western officials believe that they have committed genocide), but other than that, Jerusalem is out six votes from the start.

However, Western democracies, such as the US, Germany, Slovakia, France, Japan, and Australia, are all expected to vote for Israel.

The swing votes in the case are Uganda, Jamaica, and India, but even those countries are expected to make some political calculations – simply put, they are not clearly on one side or another diplomatically.

Can Israel's war on Hamas be ruled a 'genocide'?

In terms of the law, even if the final substantive genocide case is weak, some judges could say they need to order Israel to stop the war given that around 25,000 Palestinians have been killed, probably over 60% civilians even according to IDF statistics, and the fact that it may remain an open issue.

Again, Israel could have strong claims that succeed down the stretch, but that might not stop the ICJ from issuing a cease and desist order.

Still, the ICJ knows that Israel would likely ignore the order and that many of its supporters in the West might also decry such a ruling.

In 2004, the ICJ declared Israel’s West Bank Wall illegal despite knowing that Jerusalem might ignore the ruling, but Israel has more sympathy, at least from many Western governments after October 7, than it had in 2004.

In any case, Israel could not be forced to comply because the US would veto any moves in the UN Security Council, the world’s only enforcement body.

But it desperately hopes there is no cease and desist order because its violation of that order could lead to diplomatic and economic sanctions as well as be a devastating public relations issue.

Probably the least likely scenario is a total Israeli win, with the case being thrown out without even getting to the more in-depth 18-36-month stage.

This would be the right legal decision, but once again, due to politics as well as the unprecedented number of dead Palestinians (“only” 2,100 were killed in the 2014 50-day conflict, and only about 50% were civilians), this is extremely unlikely.

Will Israel comply with the ICJ's ruling?

A very plausible option is a compromise where the ICJ does not order the IDF to stop the war but orders a steep rise in permitting humanitarian aid.

Israel has allowed humanitarian aid, but its security precautions have limited the speed and volume.

There might be some cases where Israel would allow the aid in faster and drop some of its security checks in order to comply with such a ruling, partially out of gratitude for avoiding a worse ruling.

Also, Israel might agree to comply with the ruling, but then at some point only partially comply, claiming some new terror problem from Hamas, which could send the issue back to the ICJ, but only after further delay.

The ICJ could also search out other compromises, such as not ordering the IDF to desist as of yet but putting some kind of future deadline for intense military operations or for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from all or most of Gaza.

It could also schedule a follow-up hearing where it continues to reevaluate the issue to maintain pressure on  Israel to reach a ceasefire point.

All of this could also impact the International Criminal Court, which has its own ongoing probe of Israelis.

However the ICJ rules, Friday is history in the making for Israel, Hamas, and South Africa.

 The White House supports Americans’ right to protest President Joe Biden’s Israel policies at his campaign events, according to White House Principal Deputy Press Secretary Olivia Dalton.

Earlier this week during a campaign event in Virginia, Biden was interrupted by hecklers who were protesting his policies toward Israel, Reuters reported.

“The president has talked about support for the First Amendment and the right of Americans to make their voices heard and to protest peacefully,” Dalton said. “He supports that, and he knows that this is an issue that is deeply personal to many, many Americans.”

Biden's views on Israel during the war

Biden has been clear about his views on Israel needing to defend itself and have what it needs to defend itself in the face of an existential threat, she said.

US President Joe Biden holds a press conference about his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping before the start of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Woodside, California, US, November 15, 2023. (credit: REUTERS/KEVIN LAMARQUE)

Biden’s talks with Israelis have been “deeply personal” about his heartbreak at the humanitarian toll in Gaza, she added.

Protests during campaign events are hard to predict, but they are nothing out of the ordinary for presidential candidates, Dalton said.

Yemen's Houthi delegation met in Moscow on Thursday with the Russian deputy foreign minister Mikhail Bogdanov, where they discussed the situation in the region as well as the importance of intensifying efforts to pressure the United States and Israel to stop war in the Gaza Strip, the Houthi top negotiator said on messaging platform X.

Israel and the US signed a massive arms deal on Thursday, including three full squadrons of fighter jets, according to an N12 exclusive report.

According to the report, the deal will also supply Israel with an unprecedented amount of munitions.

The deal was reportedly signed the day before in Washington when an Israeli delegation met with US security officials.

This is a developing story.

Israel voiced confidence on Thursday that the International Court of Justice would throw out South African allegations that the Gaza war amounts to genocide against Palestinians, which an Israeli government spokesperson described as without basis.

"We expect the ICJ to throw out these spurious and specious charges," the spokesperson, Eylon Levy, said in a briefing.

The briefing was held ahead of the court's scheduled convening on Friday to announce whether it will grant emergency measures against Israel.

Hamas says it will abide by any ICJ ceasefire order if Israel reciprocates

Hamas said on Thursday that if the International Court of Justice issues a ruling calling for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, the Palestinian movement will abide by it as long as Israel reciprocates.

Soldiers from the Commando Brigade operating in Khan Yunis, in the Gaza Strip, January 25, 2024 (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON'S UNIT)

Hamas will release all the Israeli hostages in Gaza if Israel releases all Palestinian prisoners, senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan said at a news conference in Beirut.

Israel's emergency war cabinet covered at the Kirya military headquarters in Tel Aviv on Thursday evening amid reports that the CIA chief would meet with Israeli, Qatari, and Egyptian officials in hopes of restarting talks over a new Gaza hostage deal.