Israel-Hamas War: What happebed on Day 114?

Twelve government ministers, 15 members of the Knesset, and some 3,000 people attended a conference on Sunday calling for Jewish resettlement of Gaza, according to organizers.

“Part of correcting the mistake of the Oslo Agreement, which brought on October 7, is the return of settlements to Gush Katif,” said National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir as the crowd burst into applause.

The event was held at the Jerusalem International Convention Center and was organized by Nahala.

Ben-Gvir called for "return of settlements to Gush Katif" in Jerusalem on Sunday

Ben-Gvir called for the death penalty for terrorists and joined the audience as they began to shout “Death to terrorists.”

He called on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to make the brave decision to return Jewish settlements to the Gaza Strip.

Pushing to get his plan approved in the near future. Ben Gvir (credit: Yonatan Zindel/Flash90)

Head of the Shomron Regional Council, Yossi Dagan, said: “After the Shoah, we suffered on October 7. The answer is only...the return to the Gaza Strip and Gush Katif. We call on the government to speak in the only language the Middle East will understand and establish settlements in the Gaza Strip. We are here to take the first step on the long journey. It will be difficult, but the only other alternative is Shoah."

“Oslo is dead. The people of Israel live,” he shouted, calling on the audience to join him in the chant.

IDF sources have indicated that the military may be close to control of Khan Yunis.

There is still no exact timeline, but IDF sources have registered a drop in the degree of resistance of Hamas forces which had remained strong for most of the two months of fighting in southern Gaza.

The large push in western Khan Yunis, which began around a week ago and led to the killing of hundreds of Hamas terrorists, seems to have caused a leap forward in progress for the IDF.

In the north of the Gaza Strip, soldiers from the 5th Brigade located and destroyed a tunnel route used by the terrorists in the area.

Egoz fighters of the Commando Brigade identified a terrorist squad wielding RPGs and eliminated it.

In parallel, fighters of the Maglan special forces unit killed several terrorists and found weapons in the Khan Yunis area, according to the IDF.

IDF troops on patrol in Gaza. January 28, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON'S UNIT)

Combatants of the Paratrooper Brigade also continued to strike terror targets in Khan Yunis, locating numerous weapons.

Subsequently, the air force, in cooperation with troops of the 7th Brigade, killed two terrorists in the surroundings of the city using a fighter jet, the IDF added.

IDF continues operations in the center of the Strip

In the center of the Strip, the Nahal Brigade directed a manned aircraft from a distance, killing a terrorist who was located near them.

Regarding the battle to eliminate Hamas tunnels, the Wall Street Journal reported that only 20-40% of all of Hamas’s tunnel network has been destroyed or neutralized.

On November 14, The Jerusalem Post reported based on IDF sources that while a large number of attacks on tunnel shafts were being cited by the IDF, only around 30% of Hamas’s tunnels in northern Gaza had been fully destroyed to date, requiring significantly more time and investment of resources.

IDF sources said at the time that, unlike the 2014 Gaza conflict when the IDF merely sought to neutralize portions of tunnels, this time, the IDF sought to destroy all aspects of Hamas’s tunnel network.

After the IDF neutralized portions of Hamas’s tunnel network in 2014, the terror group responded by simply digging around the cave-ins to reconnect the largely intact disparate tunnels at other spots.

On December 3, the Post reported that while the IDF had taken control of 80% or more of northern Gaza by mid-November, it still may only have destroyed 20% or less of northern tunnels to date, without even having done much against southern Gaza tunnels.

Being that more than two weeks had passed, and the IDF estimates of how much of Hamas’s tunnel had been destroyed had dropped 10%, it became clear that the IDF’s pre-war estimates about the extent of the terror group’s tunnels had dramatically underestimated the problem.

On December 21, the Post reported that IDF sources had said that it would take “years” to destroy the entire tunnel network.

In that light, The Wall Street Journal report, if true, would indicate that some moderate progress has been made against the tunnel network in the last month but that the estimate of a years-long project to fully eliminate them seems to be accurate.

In the North, the IDF said its aircraft and helicopters struck Hezbollah targets in Zevkin, Hula, Marwahin, Dhayra, and Ayta ash-Shab, including lookout posts and terror infrastructure.

In recent weeks, the IDF has started to attack a much larger number of Hezbollah forces in multiple villages simultaneously or in a single day.

Also, the IDF attacked a Hezbollah command center and other terror infrastructure in southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah also fired a salvo of rockets at the Margaliot and Zar’it areas, with the IDF saying the rockets landed harmlessly in open areas.

Further, the IDF stated that it had launched interceptor missiles at two “suspicious aerial targets” while being vague about whether the defensive missiles hit their targets.  

All told, there were 14 rocket sirens on Sunday, most in the North but four in the South. It was the fourth consecutive day of rocket sirens in the South, but the numbers have remained in single digits with no damage.

The IDF announced that it had punished a group of reservists on Sunday for using IDF property to express political opinions, such as opposition to any slowing down of the war.

The IDF High Command is in favor of continuing the war but does not allow the use of military property to promote political views on either side of the spectrum.

Another IDF announcement said that the military’s logistics command had provided three million winter items for troops to better endure the current colder conditions.

Qatar, its Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed Al Ansari said last week, was “appalled” at words of criticism Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu leveled against it.

That’s right, appalled.

Qatar, a state that has provided diplomatic, media, and financial support to Hamas – a barbaric terrorist organization that murders and mutilates the bodies of men, rapes, and kidnaps women, and burns to death entire families – is appalled.

If none of the above appalled them to the extent that they would sever all links with the terrorist organization and kick its leaders out of the country where it hosts them in five-star hotels, then this is a state not easily appalled,  and what Netanyahu did or said must have been monstrous indeed.

Netanyahu's reaction 

And what did Netanyahu say?

At a meeting with the families of hostages held by Hamas, the prime minister – in a recording of the conversation leaked to Channel 12 – said that he got “very angry recently with the Americans” for renewing a deal to extend a US military base in Qatar for an additional 10 years without using that as leverage on Doha to place more pressure on Hamas to release the hostages.

PRIME MINISTER Benjamin Netanyahu has led the country for more than one-fifth of the Jewish state’s entire existence (21.2%) (credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM/THE JERUSALEM POST)

In early January the US reportedly renewed the agreement to keep its largest military base in the Middle East, the Al Udeid Air Base, in Qatar.

Netanyahu said Qatar has leverage over Hamas because it finances them.

“You don’t hear me thanking Qatar. Have you noticed?” Netanyahu told the families of hostages. “Why? Because for me it [Qatar] is essentially no different from the UN or Red Cross, and in a certain sense is even more problematic– I have no illusions about them.”

“But,” he added “I’m ready to use any actor right now that helps me bring [the hostages] home.”

What surely appalled the Qataris is less Netanyahu’s “ingratitude,” and more his interference in US-Qatari ties.

“Instead of concerning himself with Qatar’s strategic relations with the United States, we hope Netanyahu decides to operate in good faith and concentrate on the release of the hostages,” wrote Al Ansari on X.

And therein lies the rub.

Qatar, a tiny but fabulously wealthy state, is extremely sensitive about its standing in the West. So sensitive that it spends billions of dollars each year to promote the image of Qatar – not exactly a human rights beacon – as a forward-looking, modern, western nation.

It does this through channeling billions of dollars into universities, think tanks, stock markets, and sports clubs in the West.

And then along comes Netanyahu who has the audacity to admit that he lobbied the US against extending its agreement regarding an army base in Qatar unless the country uses its leverage to press Hamas far more than it is doing now. What nerve.

Netanyahu then doubled down on his criticism in public Saturday night, saying he would “not retract a single word” from the leaked recording. The prime minister came under domestic criticism by those saying that although his critique of Qatar was on the mark, he probably should not have said it while Doha is involved in the sensitive hostage negotiations.

Attempts at a second deal to release the hostages

On Sunday CIA Chief William Burns, Mossad Chief David Barnea, Shin Bet Chief Ronen Bar, Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed Al-Thani, and head of the Egyptian Intelligence Services Abbas Kamel held talks in Paris about a possible second deal to secure the release of the remaining hostages.

Yossi Cohen, Netanyahu’s former Mossad chief and before that his head of the National Security Council, has on numerous times counseled against publicly criticizing Qatar, saying that it would be counterproductive to criticize the only country in the world that can speak to Hamas.

Except that Qatar is not involved in the negotiations over the hostages because it is interested in doing Israel any favors.

Qatar understands that the October 7 massacres, and its long and strong support for Hamas over the years is not something that is enhancing its image.

Doha’s interest in a hostage release does not stem from humanitarian concern – if it had humanitarian concerns it would not have become the patron of Hamas in the first place. Instead, Qatar is worried about Qatar’s image, as Al Ansari’s over-sensitive response to Netanyahu’s leaked conversation shows, and a hostage deal right now would help refurbish it.

It is precisely because Qatar is concerned about its image – increasingly voices are being raised in the West calling for a reassessment of ties with Doha – that actions to tarnish that image should be stepped up.

The germ of a campaign to do just that took place last week in Washington, when some 200 people gathered in front of the Qatari embassy and urged the country to apply more pressure on Hamas to release the hostages.

The tone of the remarks at what the organizers – the Jewish Community Relations Council of Greater Washington – were careful to call a “gathering,” not a demonstration, was cautious. Speakers interspersed calls to Qatar to place more leverage on Hamas with appreciation for the role the country played in bringing about the first hostage release deal that saw some 100 hostages freed.

It is time, however, to take a less polite approach.

For years the Qataris perfected the art of appearing civilized, modern, and forward-looking while backing the most vile, vicious, antisemitic terrorist organization on the planet. It is time to consider an organized, diplomatic campaign to expose the charade.

Qatar should no longer be allowed to be both the arsonist and the fireman; the party responsible for setting the fire and then the firefighter deserving credit for putting it out.

Netanyahu was right to get “very angry” with the Americans over renewing the army base deal in Qatar. That type of carrot should not go to a country that harbors, diplomatically defends, funds and – through Al Jazeera – gives a megaphone to a terrorist organization like Hamas.

Qatar’s role in doing just that should be brought to the public’s attention again and again.

Three American service members were killed on Saturday in a drone attack in Jordan, the White House said in a statement. The soldiers were killed near the Syrian border. The US is continuing to gather information about the attack, but the White House has blamed “radical Iran-backed militant groups.” The pro-Iranian “Islamic Resistance” in Iraq claimed on January 28 that it had attacked five locations in the region: Erbil in Iraq, as well as Shaddadi, Tanf, and Rukban in Syria. US forces were present in four of these locations.

This is a major escalation in the region and shows that Iran is willing to expand the war into new countries. Iran has already operationalized the Houthis in Yemen to attack ships in the Red Sea. It has also prodded its proxies in Syria and Iraq to carry out more than 150 attacks on US forces. Iran has also pushed Hezbollah to fire more than 2,000 rockets at Israel. Iranian-backed proxies have already become a headache for Jordan because of drug smuggling. Now, it appears they have crossed yet another red line in the region.

A CROWD in Tehran watches an address, on the screen by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, in November. Hezbollah is virtually a state within a state, sucking the lifeblood out of Lebanon at the instigation of Iran, says the writer. (credit: WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY/REUTERS)

Tanf is a US garrison in Syria in a desert area that is near the Jordanian border and also not far from where the Jordan-Syria and Iraq borders meet. The US came to the area during the war on ISIS to support anti-ISIS fighters. Since then, the garrison has become a forlorn area. It has been targeted by drones linked to Iran in the past. Iran and its proxies have now escalated. The Iranian pro-government Tasnim News says that “Islamic Resistance” in Iraq also claimed they had targeted a place called Khirba Adnan in Syria.

This regional escalation constitutes Iranian willingness to expand its wars by proxies

The Iranian Tasnim News mentioned the deaths of three US soldiers in a separate article. Jordan’s Al-Ghad also discussed the attack but did not elaborate. There have been numerous attacks over the last two days by the Iranian proxies in Iraq and Syria. This appears to be the sign of a new campaign by Iran against US forces. Pro-Iranian politicians in Iraq, many of them linked to militias, have also called for US forces to leave Iraq.

The pro-Iranian Al-Mayadeen media also carried coverage of other attacks in the region. Hezbollah claimed it had targeted Israel. The Iran-backed Houthis also targeted the HMS Diamond with a drone overnight. Even if all the attacks on the evening of January 27 were not directly coordinated by Iran, it is clear that Iranian proxies carried out drone attacks and other attacks from Yemen and also in Iraq and Syria. This represents a new stage in the Iranian-backed attacks on the US and UK. The attacks began in the wake of the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7. 

PARIS — The United States has increased its push for a Gaza hostage deal as it led a critical closed-door Paris meeting on the matter, which was deemed as positive even though gaps remain between Israel and Hamas.

“The meeting was defined as a constructive,” the Prime Minister’s Office said. It cautioned, however, that “there are still significant gaps which the parties will continue to discuss this week during additional meetings.”

CIA Chief William Burns, Mossad Chief David Barnea, Shin Bet Chief Ronen Bar, Maj.-Gen. (res.) Nitzan Alon, Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed Al-Thani and head of the Egyptian Intelligence Services Abbas Kamel participated in the meeting held at secret location. 

The Qatari and Egyptian teams arrived at the French capital already Saturday, with the Israelis and Americans arriving on Sunday.

Israel supporters hold flags as they protest, following Hamas' biggest attack on Israel in years, in Paris, France, October 9, 2023 (credit: REUTERS/BENOIT TESSIER)

Can Israel break hostage talks deadlock?

Barnea had reportedly traveled to Qatar several times since Oct. 7. On December 16, reports said that the chief of the Mossad met with Al-Thani in Oslo, but a later report by public broadcaster Kan said the meeting took place in Paris. It is not sure yet how long the parties will stay this time in the French capital for the talks.

According to KAN NEWS, the releases would be phased and could include the release of terrorists jailed for killing Israelis and the IDF withdrawal from specific areas in Gaza, along the lines of what occurred during the first hostage deal in November.

The Israeli team had aimed to clarify to their interlocutors that they "need to apply additional levers of pressure on Hamas," to accept what Israel would consider a reasonable deal. 

"The purpose of this top-level meeting is to try and initiate a move; to bring up ideas, proposals, to break the deadlock," it was said.

Reports in recent days have indicated that the sides have come closer to a deal, which should see Israel suspending fighting in Gaza for two months. 

Hostages will be released in two or three phases. In the first phase, fighting will be stopped for 30 days, with women, elderly men and hostages injured or sick will be released. At the same time, Israel and Hamas will finalize the details of the second phase, during which the fighting will be suspended for an additional 30 days. 

It is unclear whether female soldiers will be released as part of the first phase or apart. The last to be released would be male soldiers and the bodies of deceased hostages.

That being said, the main hurdle for a deal is the demand by Hamas that the deal will signal the complete ending of fighting in Gaza, a condition Israel rejects categorically. The proposal that Hamas leaders will leave the Strip to other countries is apparently no longer part of the deal being discussed.

Until now, the conventional wisdom has been that the main dilemma with Hezbollah and its resolution come down to whether Israel can convince Hezbollah to withdraw most of its forces to the Litani River through diplomacy or whether a fuller war will be needed to do this.

The follow-up question would then be how long Israel gives to diplomacy before it goes to war with Hezbollah. Signs are that any major operation would be at least months away.

This would also leave the tens of thousands of northern residents evacuated from their homes in October away from home for an indefinite period.

But there could be a completely different approach that the defense establishment may be weighing and that The Jerusalem Post has learned about.

Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah gives a televised address at a memorial ceremony to mark one week since the killing of Wissam Tawil, a commander of Hezbollah's elite Radwan forces, in Khirbet Silem, southern Lebanon, January 14, 2024 (credit: REUTERS/AZIZ TAHER)

Maybe the northern residents could come back much sooner without a deal and without a full war.

How?

How could Israel's northern residents possibly return?

The Post understands that the crucial elements of this arrangement would be:

1) Keeping two full IDF divisions on the northern border indefinitely, doubling the number of troops of the single division which was there before October 7.

2) Continuing regular IDF attacks on Hezbollah forces south of the Litani, which the Post has reported have so far cleared around 75% of the Radwan special forces from the area and 85-95% of the lookout towers;

3) Reaching a deal with Hezbollah that at least ends the rocket and anti-tank fire while continuing the diplomatic talks for a more permanent ceasefire;

4) Encouraging the northern residents to return to their homes based on all of these changed conditions – most importantly the two divisions that remove the invasion danger.

5) Massive economic incentives to compensate for all losses and to encourage returning home.

This would require that the political echelon give an honest accounting to northern residents of what has been accomplished, what can be realistically accomplished in the coming months, and what the nation is unwilling to do in the coming months, that is to go to all-out war with Hezbollah.)

The reason that the Post understands that top defense officials may be unwilling to go to a full war with Hezbollah even in half a year (though they are not saying it out loud) is that the war in Gaza will not be over.

The IDF has tremendous tactical achievements to its credit in Gaza. It has full operational control of northern Gaza, the heart of Hamas’s former rule. It is moving toward operational control of central Gaza and Khan Yunis.

Once Khan Yunis falls, the last of Hamas’s tough battalions will have been taken apart.

Rocket fire from Gaza has plummeted on some days to single digits, and some days pass with no rockets at all.

Around 220 IDF soldiers have fallen compared to the 500-1,000 that were predicted in 2014 if a similar operation had been undertaken.

But Hamas is far from dismantled. The rocket fire has not stopped completely. If the IDF does not continue with constant low-intensity conflict operations and with a heavy force complement, the terror group could bounce back.

This means that not only large Israeli forces but also significant Israeli attention will need to remain focused on Gaza to finish the job of paving the way for non-Hamas rule there.

US, EU, and Arab-allied support is also needed to stabilize Gaza going forward.

Starting a war with Hezbollah before that process is near completion could lead to a devastating counter-strike by Hezbollah and undermine allied support for “The Day After.” It could draw needed troops and attention away from Hamas.

Another honest statement by defense or political officials might be to tell northern residents that: even if Hezbollah was as ready as Hamas before October 7 to attack Israel, and even if applying the “concept” of deterrence to Hezbollah Chief Hassan Nasrallah before October 7 was as wrong as it was with Hamas Chief Yahya Sinwar, now that Nasrallah has seen what the IDF  has done to Gaza and facing two full IDF divisions on the border – he actually is deterred.

The failure to deter Sinwar one time does not mean deterrence never works and cannot work with Nasrallah. Until this war Sinwar also was never hit as hard as Nasrallah in 2006.

None of this would comfort northern residents who much prefer a promise that 100% of Hezbollah will be beyond the Litani and that living on the northern border will never entail any risk ever again. That or to say that the country is revving up for a full war with Hezbollah to solve all of its security issues all at once.

However, given how much progress the IDF has already made with Hezbollah and with additional deterrence enhanced by the IDF’s dominance in Gaza, doubling the number of troops may convince the northern residents to return home sooner rather than later.

Former US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Sunday that she thinks some protests in the United States demanding a ceasefire in Gaza could be linked to Russia, and that the FBI should conduct a probe into their funding.

Pelosi, who made the remarks in a CNN interview, provided no evidence for her claims. Furthermore, she was asked whether opposition to President Joe Biden's policy in the war in Gaza could hurt the Democrats in November's US presidential election.

Claiming connection to Russia

"For them to call for a ceasefire is Mr. Putin's message, Mr. Putin's message. Make no mistake, this is directly connected to what he (Russian President Vladimir Putin) would like to see," Pelosi told CNN.

"I think some of these protesters are spontaneous, organic, and sincere. Some I think are connected to Russia," she said. "Some financing should be investigated and I want to ask the FBI to investigate that."

Pelosi's comments marked the first time a prominent US lawmaker has accused Russia's leader of backing US protesters calling for a ceasefire.

Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting of the Security Council via a video link in Moscow, Russia, July 21, 2023. (credit: Sputnik/Alexander Kazakov/Kremlin via REUTERS)

Protests demanding a ceasefire in Gaza have recently erupted across the US, including near airports and bridges in New York City and Los Angeles, vigils outside the White House, and marches in Washington. Demonstrators have also interrupted Biden's speeches and events.

The protests have been organized by a range of human rights, Jewish, and anti-war activist groups.

Democratic US Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said on Sunday that opposition by many to the war in Gaza was based on "the indiscriminate loss of life" in the region.

"I think what we are seeing right now throughout the country is that young people are appalled at the violence and the indiscriminate loss of life," she told NBC News when asked about the protests against Biden's policy in Gaza.

The UN's demand for ceasefire during Israel-Hamas war

The UN has demanded an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza, but Washington has vetoed resolutions for such calls in the United Nations Security Council, saying it would let Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, which governs Gaza, regroup and rebuild.

Hamas' October 7 attack on Israel killed 1,200 people, according to Israeli tallies. Israel's subsequent assault on Gaza has killed more than 26,000 Palestinians, over 1% of the 2.3 million population there, according to Gaza's health ministry. 

Three US service members were killed and 25 others were wounded in a drone attack on an outpost in Jordan near the Syrian border on Saturday night, US Central Command (CENTCOM) said on Sunday. This is the first time that US troops have been killed by enemy fire in the Middle East since the beginning of the war in Gaza.

According to the report, the attack took place at Tower 22 in Jordan. CENTCOM stated that the identities of the servicemembers will be withheld until 24 hours after their next of kin have been notified.

A British warship, the HMS Diamond, repelled a drone attack on Saturday from Yemen's Houthi group in the Red Sea, British officials said.

"Deploying her Sea Viper missile system, Diamond destroyed a drone targeting her with no injuries or damage sustained to Diamond or her crew," the Ministry of Defence said in a statement on Sunday.

"These intolerable and illegal attacks are completely unacceptable and it is our duty to protect the freedom of navigation in the Red Sea."

The Iran-aligned Houthi movement began launching waves of exploding drones and missiles at vessels on Nov. 19 in response to Israel's military operations in Gaza. On Friday, a tanker vessel was attacked, sparking a fire on board.

US and British warplanes, ships, and submarines have responded to the Houthi attacks on shipping with dozens of retaliatory strikes across Yemen against Houthi forces.

Lebanon's Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros al-Rahi spoke out against the escalation of tensions between Hezbollah and Israel on Sunday, saying that residents of southern Lebanon had told the Maronite Church that they refuse to be "sacrificial lambs" for a "culture of death" in an apparent criticism of Hezbollah's escalation along the border. 

"The people of the border villages in the south express to us their pain at the state’s abandonment of them and of its duties and responsibilities towards them," said Rahi in his Sunday sermon. "They, both old and young, are living through the brunt of the war imposed on them and rejected by them, as they consider that Lebanon and the Lebanese have nothing to do with it."

The patriarch stressed that the residents of southern Lebanon told him that they are, "experiencing the psychological pressures of war" and that children in the area are unable to go to school due to the conflict.

"[Southern residents] continue: 'You can imagine the extent of failure, chaos, and anxiety resulting from this bitter reality, and its repercussions on the educational and psychological future of our children,'" added Rahi.

"They add: Allow me to say it loud and clear - not as an abandonment of national or Arab issues, but rather out of my honesty with myself - I refuse to make myself and my family members hostages, human shields, and sacrificial lambs for failed Lebanese policies, and for the culture of death that has brought nothing but imaginary victories and shameful defeats to our country.”

Screenshot of IDF video showing Israeli jets attacking Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon, January 9, 2024 (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON'S UNIT)

Rahi vs. Hezbollah

Rahi has been a vocal opponent of Hezbollah and the escalation of violence between Israel and Hezbollah.

At the end of December, Rahi rejected the extension of the war between Israel and Hamas to southern Lebanon, saying, "It must be stopped, and the Lebanese people, their homes, and their livelihoods must be protected, as they have not yet emerged from the disastrous results of the Lebanese war. We demand the removal of any rocket launcher planted between homes in southern towns that would require a devastating Israeli response."

The patriarch called on everyone to "respect Security Council Resolution 1701 with all its provisions for the good of Lebanon."

In the past, Rahi has called for the Lebanese Army to disarm Hezbollah and take back control of southern Lebanon.