Israel-Hamas War: What happened on day 187?

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Thursday night that "Israel can count on full American support in defending Israel against attacks from Iran."

The United States expects an attack by Iran against Israel but one that would not be big enough to draw Washington into war, a US official said late on Thursday.

The White House said earlier Washington did not want conflict to spread in the Middle East and the US had told Iran it was not involved in an air strike against a top Iranian military commander in Damascus. The White House said it warned Iran to not use that attack as a pretext to escalate further in the region.

The United States said on Thursday it had restricted its employees in Israel and their family members from personal travel outside the greater Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Be'er Sheva areas amid Iran's threats to retaliate against its regional adversary.

Iran has vowed revenge for the April 1 airstrike on its embassy compound in Damascus, ratcheting up tension in a region already strained by the Gaza war.

"Out of an abundance of caution, U.S. government employees and their family members are restricted from personal travel outside the greater Tel Aviv (including Herzliya, Netanya, and Even Yehuda), Jerusalem, and Be'er Sheva areas until further notice," the US embassy said in a security alert on its website on Thursday. "U.S. government personnel are authorized to transit between these three areas for personal travel."

Washington has a policy of informing all American citizens via such warnings when it updates security measures for its personnel in a country.

US Consulate in Tel Aviv (credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM)

US has been warning of a potential Iranian attack

US President Joe Biden said on Wednesday Iran was threatening to launch a "significant attack in Israel," and that the US remained committed to its ally's security.

Asked about the security alert, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller noted that Iran had been making public threats toward Israel.

"We conduct ongoing assessments all the time about the situation on the ground," Miller said at a press briefing. "I'm not going to speak to the specific assessments that led to us to restrict our employees' and family members' personal travel, but clearly we are monitoring the threat environment in the Middle East and specifically in Israel."

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will virtually address an event on Monday at a conservative DC think tank hosted by Keep God's Land, an organization formed after October 7 advocating against a two-state solution. 

The group is made up of rabbis, evangelical pastors, former Israeli and US ambassadors, as well as members of Knesset. 

Also speaking at Monday's event will be House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), Rep. Claudia Tieney (R-NY) and Ohad Tal, a member of Knesset for the right-wing Religious Zionism party.

US HOUSE of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson holds a news conference on Capitol Hill, last month. (credit: LEAH MILLIS/REUTERS)

Organization refers to Israel as "God's land"

"A two-state solution that divides God’s land would be a direct rejection of God’s will as clearly and repeatedly stated in the Bible," according to Keep God's Land's website. 

"Jews and Christians who believe in the Bible must stand together with the brave Jewish pioneers of Judea and Samaria to ensure Israel’s terrorist enemies and their antisemitic supporters do not succeed in their plan to drive the Jewish people out of God’s land," the website says. 

President Joe Biden and his administration have posited that Palestinian statehood will be the only way for Israel to achieve long term peace and stability, a claim fervently rejected by Netanyahu. 

Israel has still not done enough to resolve the hunger crisis in Gaza and famine could be imminent, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters in Washington on Thursday, even as she explained that the IDF had taken some significant steps to improve the situation.

“The past few days have shown some promise,” Jean-Pierre said as she listed steps Israel has taken, including promising to open the Erez Crossing, allowing goods bound for Gaza to be unloaded at the Ashdod Port, and increasing aid deliveries from Jordan.

“Over the past few days, over 1,000 trucks loaded with humanitarian aid have gotten into Gaza, with over 300 trucks going into Gaza yesterday,” she said.

“It’s still not enough and we hope to see the progress continue and accelerate,” Jean-Pierre stressed. The Biden administration has warned Israel that if it does not very quickly ensure the delivery of the proper amount of humanitarian assistance to Palestinians in Gaza, Washington would change its policies about the war.

The US has been concerned about reports that Palestinians were facing starvation. Jean-Pierre said that the latest reporting from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification “indicates that the famine is imminent in Gaza.”

Palestinians wait to receive food during the Muslim holy fasting month of Ramadan, as the conflict between Israel and Hamas continues, in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip March 13, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/MOHAMMED SALEM)

“That’s why we’re trying to do everything that we can” to bring in aid, because “we know how dire the situation is in Gaza. We’re going to continue to push Israel to increase the flow that is getting into Gaza,” she stated.

But the office of the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT), which is tasked with overseeing humanitarian assistance entering Gaza, said the problem has been the United Nations, which has failed to distribute the goods..

COGAT points finger at UN, cites distribution failure

There are “600 humanitarian aid trucks awaiting collection by the UN on the Gaza side of the Kerem Shalom Crossing – in such a manner that prevents the admission of further trucks into the Gaza Strip,” it stated in a message to the media.

COGAT posted a video on X of the stationary goods stacked on the Gaza side of the Kerem Shalom crossing, explaining that the goods were simply “waiting to be collected and distributed by the United Nations agencies.

Israel has increased the flow of goods, it said, but the UN “must do the job it has been entrusted with.”

In Washington, when asked who was responsible for the aid debacle, Jean-Pierre said that the Biden administration was focused on getting assistance in.

Among the issues in the distribution of aid has been the danger facing humanitarian workers due to the fighting between Hamas and the IDF. Two weeks ago seven aid workers from the World Central Kitchen were accidentally killed in an IDF airstrike. 

Jabalya police chief Radwan Radwan was killed in a strike in the Gaza Strip on Thursday night, according to Israeli media reports, citing Palestinian media. 

Iran has vowed to "punish" Israel for an airstrike in Damascus on April 1, which Tehran blamed on Israel. Over the last week and a half, Iranian leaders have made repeated threats against Israel. These threats have led to heightened tensions in the region.

Iran has a track record of threatening Israel and another track record of using its proxies to threaten and attack Israel. What follows is a list of different attacks Iran could carry out based on how Iran has behaved. 

A ballistic missile strike from Iran 

Iran has a large arsenal of ballistic missiles of varying types and ranges. Some are solid-fueled, and some are liquid-fueled, which means some can be rushed out to be fired relatively quickly, while others take time to prepare and position. Iran has used ballistic missiles frequently in the past.

Iran used ballistic missiles to target the Al-Asad base in Iraq on January 8, 2020, in retaliation for the US killing IRGC Quds Force head Qasem Soleimani. Iran launched up to 22 missiles, targeting both the Asad base - where US troops are based in western Iraq - and also targeting the Kurdistan autonomous region, which hosts US forces. The missiles were launched from several locations in Iran, and 11 of them struck Asad's base. Iran informed the Iraqis just before they launched the rockets.

The missiles were launched beginning at 1:20 am, and the attack continued for several hours. It is believed Iran used the Fateh 313 and Qiam ballistic missiles in the attack. They contained warheads of more than 450kg.

An anti-Israel banner in a street in Tehran, Iran, April 2, 2024 (credit: MAJID ASGARIPOUR/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)

A ballistic missile strike from Iraq

Iran has been moving missiles and drones to Iraq for several years. Beginning around 2018, reports emerged in various media that Iran was basing rockets in Iraq. It was not clear after 2019 what became of these missiles because the reports about them stopped occurring.

However, it is clear that during the period 2018-2019, the Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, with which Iran works closely, had extended their control into Anbar province and defeated ISIS there. Iran then moved to create a base called Imam Ali in Syria near Albukamal on the border with Iraq. Iran uses this area to smuggle weapons via Syria to Hezbollah.

A week of Iran’s threats to attack Israel has caused social media to lurch from one theory to another about when Iran’s supposed attack may come. Iran has threatened to “punish” Israel since it accused Israel of an April 1 strike on Damascus that killed a key IRGC commander.

On the evening of April 10, there were rumors that Iran had closed its airspace and told commercial flights to avoid Tehran. There were also stories about Iran testing a missile near Qom and that it was activating new air defenses. Hen, there were more rumors about how Iran would carry out its strike at exactly 1:20 am because this is when the US killed IRGC Quds Force head Qasem Soleimani at Baghdad Airport in 2020.

There was more scrambling as well. Iran’s Foreign Minister called counterparts in Iraq, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.  clearly, this was the prelude to Iran’s claims it would attack Israel. Iran’s own Fars News media on April 11 made the calls seem routine.

Amir Abdollahian and his Saudi counterpart Faisal bin Farhan held a telephone conversation on Wednesday during which they stressed the necessity of continued consultations between Tehran and Riyadh over bilateral ties and regional and international developments,” Fars News said.

The Iranian top diplomat also called UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan.  The Iranian diplomat referred to the continuation of Israeli crimes in the month of Ramadan, especially during Eid Al-Fitr, against the fasting Palestinian people in the blockaded territory and the West Bank,” Fars News said. Mir Abdollahian called Fuad Hussein and Hakan Fidan in Iraq and Turkey.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi speaks during a parliament meeting in Tehran, Iran, January 22, 2023. (credit: MAJID ASGARIPOUR/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)

Analyzing Iran's strategic maneuvering

On the one hand, the Iranian foreign minister is working overtime.  e had been in Oman and Syria over the last seven days.  e has been making a lot of phone calls.  However, the Iranian foreign minister is rarely aware of Iran’s military plans in advance. Iran’s former foreign minister, Javad Zarif, was often cut out of whatever the IRGC and the military brass were planning.

Various weapons and combat equipment were discovered and confiscated, and two suspects were arrested in Eizariya near Jerusalem during a Wednesday night Israel police operation, the Police Spokesperson Unit reported on Thursday.

The operation was conducted by the Central Unit in the Jerusalem District, together with Jerusalem Border Police, the police dog "Thomas," and additional security forces. 

During the operation, the forces searched a house in Eizariya, located east of Jerusalem. Combat equipment was also found in several houses in the area, including rifles, pistols, ammunition, IDF uniforms, and more.

The Old City in Jerusalem with Mount Scopus and the Mount of Olives. (31/01/2004) (credit: WIKIMEDIA COMMONS/SHMUEL SPIEGELMAN)

Arms seized, suspects arrested

Following the discovery of the seized arms, the police arrested two suspects (ages 44 and 32, residents of Eizariya) and transferred them for interrogation by the Central Unit of the Jerusalem District, the Police Spokesperson reported.

The US Middle East envoy called the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Iraq to ask them to deliver a message to Iran urging it to lower tensions with Israel following a suspected Israeli air strike on Iran's embassy in Syria, a source with knowledge of the situation reported to Reuters on Wednesday.

White House Middle East czar Brett McGurk asked the officials to contact the Iranian foreign minister to convey a message that Iran should de-escalate with Israel, which they did, said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Iran's Foreign Ministry said that on Wednesday, the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Iraq spoke on the phone with Iran's foreign minister and discussed regional tensions.

The White House declined to comment.

McGurk's calls were first reported by Axios.

Iran threatens a response to Israel