IDF Lt.-Col. (res.) Avi Kalo, former head of the Missing in Action Department in IDF intelligence, was interviewed recently by Udi Segal and Anat Davidov on 103FM Radio. Kalo commented on the ongoing talks for a hostage deal and the cautious optimism when dealing with Hamas.
Kalo stated, "It seems that there might genuinely be a breakthrough and a hostage deal reached here, at least from the indications we are seeing. It appears that behind the scenes, this withdrawal from Khan Yunis... is also tied to deals and understandings as part of a broader view of the hostages."
When asked about Hamas's interest in entering a deal it didn't want until now, Kalo said, "One can indeed argue that Hamas wants to buy time, but it appears that Hamas also understands that at least the international pressure on Israel is increasing. International leaders want to end the war and therefore have the means to make several gains. Primarily, removing the IDF 'sword' from Rafah is a significant card. The fact that [Hamas chief Yahya] Sinwar is presenting this at least temporarily at the moment is a significant achievement that probably allows him breathing room to reach a deal."
The American influence on the ultimate outcome of the Israel-Hamas war
The US statement carries significant weight in these decisions. Kalo commented on this by stating, "[US President Joe] Biden understands that Israeli success and a hostage deal are key to regional stability. It is clear that there is very significant American pressure here, including hints to Israel such as statements about suspending aid, that even if not implemented, are enough to pressure Israel. However, Biden distanced himself from his statements and said that perhaps the US knows where things are heading, but Israel is the one that needs to handle the details vis-à-vis Egypt and put the Qataris on the sidelines. It is the Egyptians' role to close the deal."
Kalo further argued that the return of all hostages is essential to victory in the war. "We are already in the process of shaping the security reality in Gaza. It will not be a one-time thing. The chief of staff spoke recently about the fact that we have already destroyed 80% of Hamas's military power and that the security reality is fundamentally changing. There are things within this vacuum that can bring in a lot of positive gains for Israel. For example, dealing with the Philadelphi Corridor, which is a pressure cooker that has not really been dealt with, at least not publicly. There are a lot of tools in this process that need to be seen as hints as to how this will play out."