Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah gave a speech about Hezbollah’s attack on Israel on August 25. He said that the Iranian-backed terror group had named the attack "Operation Arbaeen Day." The reason for this is that it coincides with the end of a Shi’ite religious period called Arbaeen.
Hezbollah carried out a large attack on Israel in order to avenge the killing of its commander, Fuad Shukr. Shukr was killed because of Hezbollah’s attack on Majdal Shams in July, which killed twelve children and teenagers. Nasrallah’s latest speech, in the wake of the attack, attempted to justify the attack and also Hezbollah’s failure to achieve much in the attack.
“We have enough time to negotiate because the goal of this front and its sacrifices is to stop the war against Gaza,” Nasrallah said. In essence, Hezbollah does not see any of these attacks as urgent, instead it prefers a long plodding war of attrition with Israel. Hezbollah has lost more than 430 of its fighters since it began its attacks in October 2023, but the group appears unfazed.
Nasrallah sketched out some of Hezbollah’s decision-making in his speech. He said Hezbollah had acted alone rather than coordinating a multi-front attack with Iran and other proxies. Nasrallah also noted that Hezbollah decided not to target infrastructure and civilians and it instead focused on attacks on IDF military sites. It singled out an Israeli base at Glilot, Nasrallah said. However, Hezbollah did not succeed in this attack.
While the IDF said it had stopped ninety percent of the Hezbollah attack via a pre-emptive strike, Hezbollah claimed it still fired 340 Katyusha rockets.
In addition, Hezbollah launched drones from the Bekaa Valley, Nasrallah claimed. “Nasrallah also stated that the truth of what happened in these operations will be known, despite the enemy's secrecy, and that data shows a number of drones hit their targets, but the enemy has remained silent,” Iranian state media claimed.
Hezbollah’s propaganda, as voiced by its leader, claimed that all its plans were achieved. "what the enemy bombarded today were empty valleys; therefore, the enemy's claims of targeting ballistic missiles that were prepared to target Tel Aviv are baseless, and the launch pads of combat drones were not hit, and the Israeli attacks hit only two missile launchers,” the IRNA report noted, based on Nasrallah’s speech. He mentioned ballistic missiles and precision weapons.
Hezbollah is trying to save face here. It knows that Israel has claimed a major success in pre-empting its attacks and that Israel claims to have destroyed thousands of rocket launchers of Hezbollah. Hezbollah wants to pretend that it emerged unscathed.
This is the typical dance that Hezbollah has been doing for ten months. “Nasrallah said that we announced that our response today is preliminary,” the IRNA report noted.
In essence, what Hezbollah is saying is that its plodding attacks will continue. This war of attrition will continue. Hezbollah will continue to attack until there is a ceasefire in Gaza. Then, it will revisit its demands, and it may even continue attacks after that due to the “open account” it believes it has due to the killing of Shukr. However, it is clear it prefers to return to some semblance of quiet.
Hezbollah doesn’t want a large war
It also thinks that it benefits from this low level war. It is putting on a brave face in a sense, despite its losses. It is showing that it can take the losses of a few men a week in this long war and that it will recover. It is also showing that it doesn’t view any of this with urgency.
It doesn’t mind waiting for weeks or months to attack because it knows this puts Israel and the US on alert. Hezbollah believes that it has achieved a lot just because it can put Israel on alert and that, in some cases, this might be enough for it to achieve a kind of victory. It has also caused Israel to evacuate the northern border, which for Hezbollah is a major accomplishment.
Nasrallah’s speech revealed the overall sense that Hezbollah has that it doesn’t need to carry out more large attacks quickly. It can wait, and it will wait as Iran keys in other proxies, such as Syrian-based militias. One of those groups launched a drone at Israel, for instance. Yemen’s Houthis have also backed the Hezbollah attack, according to a statement at Al-Mayadeen, the pro-Iranian media outlet.
Meanwhile, the Iranian regime is also signaling that it can hold off on its own claims it will retaliate against Israel. Iran’s foreign minister spoke with his Italian counterpart on August 26. “Iran’s foreign minister has reiterated his country’s pledge to punish the Zionist regime for assassinating Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran,” IRNA reported.
Iran is also reaching out to Turkey and Egypt. “Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and his Egyptian counterpart Badr Abdelatty have discussed bilateral relations and regional issues, including the Gaza war,” IRNA noted on August 25.