Otzma Yehudit chairman National Security Minister MK Itamar Ben-Gvir and Religious Zionist Party (RZP) chairman Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich threatened publicly on Thursday to leave the government if the hostage deal goes through.
The two threats were slightly different. In a statement on Thursday night, Ben-Gvir threatened to leave the government as soon as the deal is approved by the government, which could happen as soon as Friday.
However, Ben-Gvir promised not to completely bring down the government and not to “act alongside the Left” against it, saying that if Israel returned to war in Gaza, his party would rejoin the government.
Smotrich threatened in a statement earlier on Thursday that his party would leave the government if it did not receive assurances in advance that the IDF would resume its military operations in Gaza. Smotrich did not outline whether or not he would merely leave the government or actively attempt to topple it.
Both statements came after prolonged party meetings. Smotrich repeatedly met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in recent days in an attempt to reach a written agreement on a return to war, and Ben-Gvir spoke to Netanyahu on the phone just before making his announcement on Thursday evening.
Ben-Gvir argued in his statement that the deal would effectively “erase” the achievements of the war until now, as it would leave Hamas standing and enable the return of Hamas members to northern Gaza.
Ben-Gvir argued that this would lead to “another October 7” massacre and that while he wanted the hostages to return, this was not a price he was willing to pay. The national security minister called on RZP and on “ideological” members of the Likud to join him in “preventing the implementation” of the deal.
RZP said in its statement earlier on Thursday, “Alongside the longing for the return of all of our hostages, the Religious Zionist Party forcefully opposes a deal. The party stands behind the demand of party leader [Finance] Minister Bezalel Smotrich from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to ensure Israel’s return to war to destroy Hamas and return all hostages, while changing the approach to decisive victory immediately at the end of the first stage of the deal – and this as a condition to the party’s remaining in the government and coalition.”
Smotrich said in an earlier statement on Wednesday night that “a clear condition for our remaining in government is total certainty of a return to war with great force, in full capacity, and in a new fashion until full victory in all its components, led by the destruction of the terror organization Hamas and the return of all hostages to their homes.”
As of Thursday night, the only Likud minister to make a similar threat to resign was Diaspora Affairs and Combating Antisemitism Minister Amichai Chikli.
Coalition ramifications
Smotrich and Ben-Gvir’s parties have 13 Knesset seats between them, which are enough to bring down the 68 MK coalition. Even if they left the government, however, the deal would remain intact and could be implemented during the statutory three-month election campaigns.
In addition, opposition party leaders MKs Yair Lapid and Benny Gantz have both repeated prior promises to provide a “political security net” for Netanyahu in order for the deal to go through, if necessary.
A “no” vote by Ben-Gvir and Smotrich’s ministers in the State Security Cabinet and government plenum would not block the deal: Ben-Gvir and Smotrich are the only representatives of their parties with voting rights in the 11-member State Security Cabinet, although they have six ministers between them from the 33-member government.
Opposition leader MK Yair Lapid said in response to Ben-Gvir’s statement on Thursday night, “I say to Benjamin Netanyahu, do not fear, you will receive any security net you need in order to make a hostage deal. It is more important than all the disagreements we ever had.”