What is the next step in the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal? - analysis

Four more hostages are expected to be released on Saturday.

 A Hamas terrorist stands on top of a Red Cross vehicle during the release of three Israeli hostages from the Gaza Strip, January 19, 2025. (photo credit: SCREENSHOT/X, SECTION 27A COPYRIGHT ACT)
A Hamas terrorist stands on top of a Red Cross vehicle during the release of three Israeli hostages from the Gaza Strip, January 19, 2025.
(photo credit: SCREENSHOT/X, SECTION 27A COPYRIGHT ACT)

After the dramatic day of the first three hostages being returned by Hamas, the IDF releasing 95 Palestinian prisoners, and both Israel and Hamas halting their fire, what are the next steps in the deal?

The truth is, in the coming days, not that much will be happening.

The IDF started preparing its interim Gaza withdrawal process days before the ceasefire went into effect, and each day, it will be moving its forces on a gradual basis back to the defense lines agreed to under the deal.

Also, up to 600 trucks of humanitarian supplies are supposed to be going into Gaza.

Finally, there will be some periods of time and places where the IDF is supposed to allow even Hamas arch-terrorists to move around to prepare the next hostage return of four people, set for Saturday.

Amid all of this, Palestinians, in general, are allowed to move around more freely within northern and southern Gaza.

 Palestinian Hamas terrorists parade as they prepare to hand over hostages kidnapped during the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel by Hamas, to the Red Cross as part of a ceasefire and a hostages-prisoners swap deal between Hamas and Israel, in Gaza City, January 19, 2025. (credit: Dawoud Abu Alkas/Reuters)
Palestinian Hamas terrorists parade as they prepare to hand over hostages kidnapped during the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel by Hamas, to the Red Cross as part of a ceasefire and a hostages-prisoners swap deal between Hamas and Israel, in Gaza City, January 19, 2025. (credit: Dawoud Abu Alkas/Reuters)

But until Saturday, they are not permitted to move between the north and the south.

Day-by-day

As of Saturday, however, when Israel receives another round of hostages and releases another round of Palestinian security prisoners, the IDF is supposed to withdraw from the Netzarim Corridor, facilitating Palestinian movement between northern and southern Gaza.

Israeli officials said they will have some unspecified means to monitor whether armed Hamas terrorists are returning to northern Gaza, though few observers put much stock in that once the IDF withdraws.

On Day 14, there will be another exchange of three hostages for more Palestinian security prisoners.


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On Day 16, the sides will start to negotiate about what will happen after Phase I ends on Day 42.

On Days 21, 28, and 35, there will be more exchanges of three hostages for more Palestinian security prisoners.

On Day 42, Israel gets the last 12 of the October 7 hostages who are part of Phase I, along with Abera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed, two hostages who have been held for more than a decade. It is anyone’s guess, however, whether Phase II of the deal will continue after that, what it will look like, or whether there will be a return to war at that point.