The IDF hopes the government and key Western powers such as the US will support it being able to extend its stay in southern Lebanon beyond the January 27 deadline for about another 30 days to ensure that more Hezbollah weaponry concealed in border villages is destroyed.
Hezbollah has committed several dozen significant violations of the ceasefire deal, the IDF told The Jerusalem Post, adding that they have been minor, being that Hezbollah has not fired into Israel since late November.
It was unclear if the violations would be enough to convince the US and others to allow the IDF to stay in southern Lebanon for a temporarily longer period and whether the whole situation could blow up into a larger war.
Already in late December, about 30 days after the November 27 ceasefire, the IDF said Hezbollah had carried out about 120 very minor ceasefire violations, with a small number of those also involving attempts to move some of its rockets from one location to another and the IDF generally attacking cells involved in this activity.
In the one instance in which Hezbollah fired into Israel during the first week of the ceasefire after the IDF had killed several Hezbollah terrorists, the terrorist group merely fired two mortars into an open area of the Golan Heights.
To date, the IDF has killed about 50 Hezbollah terrorists since the ceasefire. Most of that occurred within the first month, with much less friction between the IDF and Hezbollah during January.
The Biden administration and sources close to the Trump administration have emphasized that the ceasefire with Hezbollah must not collapse. Hezbollah has said it would reignite the war with Israel if the IDF does not withdraw by 60 days after the ceasefire.
France and other international parties also want the IDF out and have accused the military of dozens of its own violations of the ceasefire. Seemingly to try to support its narrative of needing more time to destroy Hezbollah weapons, which it says the Lebanese army has been too slow to eliminate, the IDF on Wednesday said it had found an entirely new stash of concealed weapons near the border.
Pushing to maintain ceasefire
Another difficult issue on Day 60 will be how the IDF handles unarmed civilians returning to their villages if it has not yet withdrawn. During the 60-day ceasefire period, the IDF warned that it would fire on anyone approaching its defense lines on suspicion of being Hezbollah terrorists.
But it will be harder to make this argument after Day 60, especially if there is little outside global support for Israel remaining in southern Lebanon.
Although this has not been publicly discussed, another option would be for Israel to continue to carry out airstrikes periodically against Hezbollah weapons, even if it does withdraw on Day 60.
But if the Lebanese army does not keep Hezbollah out of southern Lebanon, the IDF could consider resuming a larger conflict.