Israel has drafted a step-by-step plan to escalate pressure on Hamas—including cutting off essential supplies, launching airstrikes, forcing Gazans who returned to the north to evacuate again, and ultimately reentering the Gaza Strip—if the terror group does not release the remaining hostages, The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday.
US President Donald Trump and his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, have also warned of a return to war should Hamas refuse to comply.
With negotiations at an impasse, Israel has already begun implementing its first measure: blocking the entry of goods and supplies into Gaza. The next phase, according to Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, would involve shutting off electricity and water—a move discussed in a recent cabinet meeting.
Continuing the war
If those economic and infrastructure pressures fail, Israel may escalate to targeted airstrikes and special forces raids against Hamas leadership and military positions, Israeli security analysts briefed on the plan told The Wall Street Journal. The next step could involve forcing Palestinians who returned to northern Gaza during the ceasefire to evacuate once again.
Ultimately, Israeli forces may launch a full-scale military operation, deploying more troops than in previous rounds of fighting with the objective of holding ground and effectively reoccupying parts of Gaza. According to sources familiar with the plan, this would be the most extensive operation to date, aiming to dismantle Hamas’s remaining military infrastructure.
“There’s a determination to go back in and finish Hamas no matter what happens,” said Michael Makovsky, a former Pentagon official and president of the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, in remarks to The Wall Street Journal. He suggested that Israel would approach this next phase with significantly greater force.
The renewed military preparations come as talks between Israel and Hamas remain at a deadlock. Israel is demanding the release of the remaining hostages, but Hamas has refused to release them unless Israel agrees to a permanent ceasefire—something Israeli leaders have ruled out. Additionally, Israel insists that Hamas must relinquish power and disarm, conditions the group has flatly rejected.
As an interim measure, Israel has offered to extend the ceasefire for another month if Hamas continues to release hostages. However, officials have set a deadline of Saturday for Hamas to respond. If the group does not comply, Israel has warned mediators that it will systematically escalate military pressure, potentially leading to full-scale war, according to Arab mediators cited by The Wall Street Journal.
Hamas, meanwhile, has reiterated its demand that discussions must include a permanent end to the conflict and has refused to negotiate disarmament.
Trump, who has remained vocal about Middle East policy, expressed frustration with the slow progress of hostage talks. On Wednesday, he posted a social media warning to Hamas, stating: “If [Hamas] didn’t release all the remaining hostages in Gaza immediately, ‘you are DEAD!’” The next day, he and Witkoff suggested that the US. and Israel could take joint action against Hamas if the group does not comply.
Israeli military analysts suggest the country is better prepared for a new round of fighting than at the war’s outset. Its ammunition stockpiles have been replenished, and the Biden administration’s earlier restrictions on military operations have reportedly eased. Additionally, Israel no longer needs to station large forces along its northern border, as its intense military campaign against Hezbollah last year resulted in a ceasefire.
Israel estimates it has killed 20,000 Hamas fighters, including senior commanders, and has severely damaged the group’s weapons production and tunnel infrastructure. However, Hamas has continued recruiting thousands of new fighters, though these forces remain largely inexperienced, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Yaakov Amidror, a former Israeli national security adviser, told The Wall Street Journal that Israel’s goal of eliminating Hamas is unlikely without fully reoccupying Gaza. He estimated that a military operation to dismantle Hamas could take six months to a year.
Despite suffering heavy losses, Hamas is expected to endure another round of fighting. Tahani Mustafa, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, noted that Hamas has demonstrated resilience and sustained its insurgency far longer than expected.Recruitment among young Gazans has reportedly surged, ensuring a steady supply of fighters. While many in Gaza oppose Hamas’s rule, the ongoing war and absence of an alternative leadership structure have allowed the group to maintain some level of support.
If Israel proceeds with a full-scale reentry into Gaza, it would need to dismantle the remaining Hamas tunnel networks—an operation analysts warn would be highly destructive and logistically difficult. Without a governance plan for postwar Gaza, Israel risks becoming entangled in an extended insurgency, even if it succeeds in weakening Hamas’s military strength.
Another major obstacle is the presence of remaining hostages. 59 individuals are still in Gaza, with Israeli officials believing that at least 24 are alive.
Public sentiment in Israel remains divided. While many Israelis favor securing the release of hostages through diplomatic means, polls indicate broad support for renewed military action if negotiations fail. A strong majority backs a ceasefire extension only if it does not require a permanent end to the war.