The ceasefire in Gaza will have broad implications across the Middle East. How this will take shape will take time to process. This is because the ceasefire has phases, and it is not clear what may come next.However, we know that those who oppose Israel will try to spin the ceasefire to their advantage. Hamas is portraying it as a victory. Pro-Iran groups will frame it as their victory as well. Qatar and Turkey, who back Hamas, will also regard it as a triumph on their part.For instance, Al-Akhbar media in Lebanon wrote that the deal was leading to Israeli concerns about Hamas returning to power.
Iran has said it will continue to support the Palestinian cause. The pro-Houthi Masirah TV also said that Hamas has shown its skill in negotiating the deal.
Regarding news outlets that are more critical of Hamas or tend to be in the camp of Arab states that are not backing Hamas, there is likely concern that the truce could fan the flames of extremism in the region.
In other words, Hamas is linked to the Muslim Brotherhood, and that could lead to many affiliated parties feeling that it is on the upswing.
In the UAE, they are closely watching what happens next. Al-Ain media in the UAE reported on the flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza and also Israeli concerns about Hamas returning to power.
The media in the Gulf is also watching closely what may happen with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ruling coalition.
Concern in the West Bank and PA
There will be concern in the West Bank and the Palestinian Authority that Hamas may leverage the prisoner releases to come to power.Hamas structured the deal to take place over many months so it could slowly use this time frame to build up enough power to take control of the West Bank.This will lead to concern in Ramallah and also likely in Jordan.
Cairo appears to have played both sides, quietly enabling Hamas over the last years. That may have been part of a deal with Turkey and Qatar to get them not to support the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt in exchange for Cairo looking the other way as Hamas made its plans.If so, this is concerning, and Cairo’s role is still unclear. Egypt does seem to fear the outcome of the change in power in Damascus.
The fact Hamas is declaring victory and that there is a new government in Damascus has implications for the whole region.Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which propelled Abu Mohammed al-Julani to power in Damascus to replace former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s regime, has roots in political Islam. More specifically, a new trend of Islamic parties could be on the rise for the first time since the 1990s when these parties were also growing.This is not an ISIS-type extremism, but it is also not soft and fuzzy. It spans across a spectrum – from Hamas to the new leaders in Damascus.That dovetails with changes in the region. There is a new leadership in Lebanon. There are many things in transition in the Middle East.As it were, many countries such as the UAE, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Israel will need to pay attention to what may come next.
The Houthis in Yemen are also likely to declare victory. This could have reverberations in Libya. It could also impact other trends. The incoming Trump administration has its own plans for the region.Outgoing US President Joe Biden administration’s concept of “integration” doesn’t appear to have worked.
What might come next? The Arab League and other regional groups will want to manage things. In addition, Iran will not give up its role without a fight in places like Iraq. Many things are in flux. Hamas’s claim of victory could impact the entire Middle East.