Hamas has used the Gaza hostage-ceasefire deal to create staged events during the releases over the past two weeks, which have led to harrowing images of crowds of men surrounding the hostages, filming them, and jeering at them.
The staged events are carefully designed by Hamas to showcase its sense of victory.
The terror organization used the handover of the five IDF female observer hostages especially to make it seem it was conducting a victory celebration, erecting a stage, and making them walk among crowds of men, after which they received a satirical plaque signaling release.
Hamas sees in the hostage releases and the security prisoners it frees in exchange, a way to stage-manage its sense of victory.
However, it may soon face diminishing returns, particularly in light of some in the Israeli public with the sentiment to returning to fighting in Gaza.
The Hamas victory celebrations and its use of the hostage handover to parade hostages have led to anger in Israel; the sight of hundreds of armed Hamas members at these events reinforces the sense that Israel did not win the war, despite the attempts to portray it that way.
Some want the IDF to go back into Gaza, take over neighborhoods again, force Gazans to flee, and fight Hamas until it is fully defeated.
Hamas likely does not want to return to fighting. Rather, it wants the deal to continue into phases two and three. Its goal is to drag out the deal but also to prevent it from completely collapsing.
Before the deal kicked in, there was a growing push for the government to stop stalling and finally agree to a deal – one that was on the table for most of this year.
The deal that US President Donald Trump pushed for last month, which he manifested through his Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, had been on the table a long time already.
Witkoff helped seal the deal – and it was primarily Israel’s leadership being more flexible that allowed for this.Israelis have seen images of the female hostages for 15 months now. It was the images of the observers being kidnapped from the Nahal Oz military base, their bloodied faces, being dragged into Gaza by Hamas men – that resonated with many people in Israel.
The strength of the five women who returned, Daniella Gilboa, Liri Albag, Naama Levy, Agam Berger, and Karina Ariev has resonated across Israel. Hamas knew how important the young women were.
Hamas now faces a different challenge: As it releases more hostages, it can’t hold parades every week because many people will tire of these images. When the terror organization first conducted its handover, many tuned in to watch. Hamas used this as a spectacle.
Hamas's dilemma
But, after this happens three or five times, there might be less of a turnout – because what begins with interest, tends to fade. Hamas can declare “victory” every week, but people may stop listening, especially when they are bitter over the state of their daily lives, and have more pressing needs to tend to.
Hamas can only squeeze this hostage deal so much. At some point, it will want the deal to move forward, but will also receive less and less credit for what it gets from it. Hamas took so many hostages on October 7 – 251, along with four men whom it has held hostage since 2014 – that its ability to exploit this situation is diminishing.
Meaning, that the tables may turn a bit, where Hamas will want the deal to continue and ask its close mediator Qatar to do whatever is possible to keep things going. In turn, they will give Trump an opening to continue to showcase his ability to get deals done and declare victories.
Hamas knows that among the hostages it continues to hold, almost are all men, and that some are deceased, with the overall number of each remaining unclear.
It understands its dilemma: Handing over bodies is not the picture of victory that it wants – it can’t parade bodies on stage and give them a certificate the way it did with the observers. Hamas already has overplayed its hand in this respect, trying to showcase how holding young women and elderly men for 15 months is victorious.
Many see the images of the strong young women returning to Israel, the strength of the elderly men such as Gadi Mozes, and the five Thai foreign workers who were released – Thaenna Pongsak, Sathian Suwannakham, Sriaoun Watchara, Seathao Bannawat, and Lumnao Surasak – and empathize with them.
In that sense, Hamas is losing the battle for its image in the arena of public relations and is facing diminishing returns in Gaza. For a year, it used the hostages and produced videos of them, but now it really does need the deal to advance.
This is clearly an opening for Trump and those who support the deal to continue the ceasefire, but also to apply more pressure on Hamas.