Israeli airstrikes in Syria overnight between Wednesday and Thursday were aimed at striking “military capabilities that remained at the Syrian bases of Hama and T4, along with additional remaining military infrastructure sites in the area of Damascus,” the IDF reported.
Nevertheless, many Israeli media reports indicated that the strikes were also meant to send a message to Turkey. Ankara may be eyeing the T-4 base and other sites to play a larger role in Syria.
It increasingly appears that Israel would like to preempt any attempt by Turkey to put down roots in Syria. In addition, this can serve as a way to deter Ankara and prevent further escalation.
The question is whether it will work. Israel likely waited too long to confront Iran in Syria. Tehran moved forces into Syria during the Syrian civil war. Hezbollah and Iraqi militias followed.
Iran then used a land corridor via Syria to move weapons to Hezbollah. This entrenchment was a threat to Israel.
A pivot from confronting Iran in Syria to potentially confronting Turkey has many potential pitfalls. First of all, Turkey’s current presence in Syria is limited to the north and consists of some bases and posts.
Turkey backs the Syrian National Army, a group of proxy militias. Now that Syria has a new government, the SNA is expected to be integrated into the new Syrian army.
It is not clear if Turkey will withdraw from the areas it occupies, but it seems that Ankara may want to change gears. Turkey might want a deal to allow it to upgrade military airports in Syria, such as at T-4.
The big question is whether Israel wants to get involved in an open-ended campaign in Syria that not only involves potential tension with Ankara but also clashes with Syrians near the border. The clashes are increasing.
Syria will likely wait to respond, but the clashes may encourage it to demand more help from Ankara. The Israeli strikes may not have the desired effect because the more Syria feels vulnerable, the more it may need Turkey.
Israel is already stuck in a war in Gaza that requires parts of several IDF divisions. The IDF also maintains several points in Lebanon and continues to strike Hezbollah. The West Bank has been quieter than in the past, but things could change.
There are other issues in the region. The Houthis continue to attack Israel using ballistic missiles. Iran is also a potential threat. The Trump administration wants a deal with Iran.
'Mow the grass'
Israeli policies in the past have sought to manage conflicts and “mow the grass” of enemies. After the October 7 massacre, Israel has appeared to be more assertive.
Israel’s attempt to preempt threats, rather than manage them, seems to guide its Syria and Turkey policy today. However, Israel may find that it has traded one enemy in Syria for another.
Iran left Syria after the Assad regime fell, which was good news. Instead of a peace dividend, however, it appears Israel is now being drawn into a new conflict. This will mean yet another front in Israel’s conflicts.
Turkey is not like Iran. It is a NATO member that has a strong economy and relatively good ties with Russia and the West. It also works with Iran.
Ankara has a strong military defense sector. Unlike Iran, it has a strong conventional army, and it produces military equipment that is reliable. Iran, by contrast, is much weaker, even though it has drones, ballistic missiles, and a nuclear program.
Ankara has sought to isolate Israel and condemn it in recent years. As such, confrontation with Turkey in Syria might be more complex than one with Iran.