Iran may be providing various types of surface-to-surface missiles to militias in Iraq, according to a new report by the UK's The Times on Wednesday.
The report depicts this as part of Iran’s high stake chess game in the region, as the US and Iran head to indirect talks in Oman. In addition, the US is carrying out airstrikes on the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen.
Therefore, Iran may want to improve the position of militias in Iraq. These militias are part of an umbrella group called the Popular Mobilization Forces. The reports of the missile transfer stand in contrast to a Reuters report on April 7 that suggested the Iranian-backed militias might be willing to disarm due to threats and pressure from the US.
It would be difficult to believe both reports are accurate. The Reuters report was based on anonymous sources within four of the militias. The report claimed to have spoken with ten commanders. At the same time the report also relied on information from sources close to the Iraqi Prime Minister. Clearly the militias may want to message in private that they could consider disarming.
What is 'disarming'?
What is “disarming”? It may mean simply saying their arms are now under Iraqi government control. The PMF is an official paramilitary force in Iraq and therefore the militias could simply play a game of bait and switch and say their arms are now part of the “state.”
According to The Times report, however, Tehran has been bulking up its presence in the region by supplying a new batch of weapons to powerful Shia militias in Iraq, dashing hopes that Iran would withdraw support as it prepares to enter negotiations with the United States over its missile and nuclear programme.”
The report says that “the weapons were transferred last week, according to regional intelligence involved in monitoring the nearly 1,000-mile border between the countries. It was the first time long-range surface-to-surface missiles had been in the possession of an Iran-allied militia in Iraq. Sources said the delivery was arranged by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Air Force.”
Types of missiles
This is not the first time that Iran has sought to move ballistic missiles to Iraq. It did the same thing in the summer of 2018. Reuters reported in late August 2018 that “Iran has given ballistic missiles to Shi’ite proxies in Iraq and is developing the capacity to build more there to deter attacks on its interests in the Middle East and to give it the means to hit regional foes, Iranian, Iraqi and Western sources said.” At the time the report claimed the missiles might include the Zelzal, Fateh 110 and Zolfaghar (Zolfiqar). It said these had ranges from 200-700km.
Today the report at The Times says that “sources said that two other types of missiles, the Quds 351 cruise and Jamal 69 ballistic missiles, were also smuggled into Iraq last week. They had a much shorter range than the new surface-to-surface missiles, which could be positioned to target as far as Europe.” The Quds 351 is also known as Project 351 or the Paveh cruise missile. It is also known as the Quds-4 in the hands of the Houthis. It may have a range of 2,000km. It was unveiled in 2019.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies notes that the land attack cruise missile “known as Project 351…This [land attack cruise missile] LACM has been provided to the Houthi movement (Ansarullah) in Yemen, where it is called the Quds. Iran has never publicly paraded or claimed ownership of Project 351 and has denied involvement in the supply of the weapon to the group, a claim lacking in credibility given the evidence to the contrary.” The report adds that “the initial version of Project 351, which likely equates to the Quds-1, had a range in the order of 700–800 km. Ansarullah [the Houthis] first claimed to have used an improved version of the missile, the Quds-2, against a Saudi oil refinery in November 2020.”
The Jamal 69 missile, which may also be known as the Zolfaghar (Zolfiqar) in Iran, has been alleged to be in Iraq before. In 2022 reports also said it was in the hands of militias in Iraq. Newsweek reported in 2022 that the Jamal-69 was seen at a Quds Day event in Iraq in 2022. It was photographed with the Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba militia. This is one of the powerful pro-Iranian militias that are part of the PMF. “Iran and its allies across the Middle East are showing off weapons capable of striking their mutual foe, including a new missile revealed by Iraq's Hezbollah Al-Nujaba Movement,” Newsweek noted. “The missile, known as Jamal-69, is said by the group to have a range of 700 kilometers, or roughly 435 miles, greater than the average distance of less than 300 miles between Iraq and Israel, as claimed by the group in a video accompanying the unveiling.”
Tal Inbar, an expert on rockets and space, noted in a post in 2022 that the Jamal 69 “Iranian Zolfaghar ballistic missile in the hands of Iran's proxies in Iraq.”
The movement of these missiles to the militias in Iraq would therefore represent the movement of weapons Iran already transferred abroad over the last several years. The cruise missile, project 351, has already been sent to the Houthis. The Jamal 69 was already alleged to be in the hands of the militias in Iraq. Therefore what Iran may be doing is increasing the supplies of these systems to the militias. If so, then it is unlikely these groups will disarm.
A high stakes game
What is clear in the two reports, at Reuters and The Times is that Iran and its militias in Iraq are playing a high stakes game. They are messaging and they are prepared to keep their arms while also pretending they might comply with demands to rein in their power in Iraq. This comes amid other reports that Hezbollah in Lebanon could disarm if Israel agrees to withdraw from certain areas in Lebanon. It also comes as a report emerged that the Houthis have offered the US a deal. The talks in Oman could help decide all this. In the past Iran has linked the behavior of its proxies to its nuclear program and US policy. For instance, during maximum pressure in 2019 Iran operationalized the militias to attack US forces in Iraq.