Saudi Arabia’s intelligence chief went to Syria recently. This was a big move because Syria had been given a cold shoulder by leading Arab states for many years during the Syrian civil war. Saudi Arabia is also talking to Iran, and Turkey’s president spoke with the Saudi king this week.
This marks a major move for the region and looks to present a series of attempts at reconciliation, as opposed to the more Hobbesian reality of the last decade.
Martin Chulov at The Guardian notes that “the Saudi delegation was led by Gen. Khalid Humaidan, the head of the country’s General Intelligence Directorate. He was received by Syria’s Gen. Ali Mamlouk, the architect of the push to crush the early years of the anti-Assad revolution and the key interlocutor with Russian forces, which took a significant stake in the conflict from September 2015.”
Meanwhile, in Turkey, the news of the phone call between President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Saudi king is being greeted with a newfound sense of purpose in the region. Pro-Ankara media in Turkey tend to highlight past issues with the Saudis and cast Riyadh in a negative light.
“Aside from the Khashoggi incident, Saudi Arabia’s rapprochement with Israel, support of the coup in Egypt and its stance on Libya and Syria have been other points of contention between Ankara and Riyadh,” notes Daily Sabah, the Turkish newspaper. Basically, the Turkish media are a bit skeptical of the new possibilities.
Over the last decade, there were increasing divisions in the region as Iran gobbled up property in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, and as Saudi Arabia worked closely with Egypt and the UAE and Bahrain, including green-lighting new relations with Israel.
Notice that Turkey’s media present Saudi Arabia’s apparent warm view of Israel as a “point of contention” with Ankara. This is symbolic because Ankara backs Hamas and has backed the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, as well as sending mercenaries to Libya, making a key part of the Erdogan agenda the isolation of Israel and supporting terrorism against Israel.
Turkey says with one voice that it wants reconciliation with Israel, but, alternatively, has threatened the UAE against its ties with Israel and sees Riyadh’s views of Israel as a problem.
What this means is that Ankara is misleading when it says it wants new ties with Israel. But Ankara may be more serious in pretending to repair relations with Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Ankara wants to buttress against a US administration that may become cold to Turkey.
All of this is important because the high-level meetings showcase how the region could be changing from periods of instability and extremism to an era where large state policies matter a bit more. It becomes more important to closely watch these high-level calls and meetings and the context within which they take place.
It is also important to be carefully observing what the US is doing. Last week, the US hosted a high-level Israeli delegation, and this week US President Joe Biden spoke with the UAE’s crown prince.
Watching the Riyadh discussions with Iran as well as Turkey’s meetings in Egypt will be important to help assess and judge the next several months of activity.